INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
03.11.2026
March 11th, 2026
Greetings! It is Day 12 of the war in Iran and—lest we forget—it is the 1,477th day of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.
Photo credit: Associated Press. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (center) with two Ukrainian soldiers.
Western media has been laser-focused for the past 12 days on the war in Iran. And rightfully so. The combined U.S.-Israeli operation against the Islamic Republic of Iran has both regional & global implications.
Oil tops that list. During the past 24 hours, oil prices have fluctuated—up & down—between $87 & $120 a barrel.
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Meanwhile—in Ukraine—the war with Russia is approaching its 49th month. Russian casualties, according to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, have now eclipsed 1,275,980. In simple math, that is—on average—1,713 casualties a day.
That is equal to nearly two or three infantry battalions a day. To put that into perspective—give or take—the U.S. Army has roughly 125-150 infantry battalions between active duty & the Army National Guard.
Over the past 30 days—since February 10th—Russia has suffered an additional 27,420 casualties. By comparison, Russia—then the Soviet Union—during the entirety of the Afghanistan war, had 13,310 soldiers killed, 35,478 wounded & 311 missing in action.
Moscow is struggling to replace these losses. Plus—when they do replace them—the new fodder for Putin’s meatgrinder lacks training & combat experience. It’s as if Putin is asking a hospital orderly to perform a kidney transplant.
Many miliary analysts—Russian & western alike—have refuted the casualty figures reported by Armed Forces of Ukraine, which makes the news reported by the Kyiv Independent today even more intriguing.
According to documents obtained by Ukraine’s intelligence service, the Kremlin’s own “classified assessments estimate that 1,315,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and wounded” in Ukraine since the start of Putin’s ‘special military operation’ in February 2022.
To put that into bloody context, 1.3 million casualties is greater than the combined population of Wyoming & Vermont. Indeed, there are 8 U.S. states with populations equal to or smaller than Russia’s war losses.
62 percent—815,300—are reported killed in action, while the remaining 38 percent—499,700—were wounded.
Ukraine has become quite efficient in killing & wounding Russian soldiers. Notably, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky believes the numbers of Russian casualties overall may even be understated.
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Yet, it’s not just Putin’s casualty figures that are flying under the radar. Ukraine is taking the fight directly to Russian ground forces and—significantly—retaking terrain from Moscow’s occupation forces.
The Ukrainian military has pushed Russian troops out of most of the occupied areas in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast after several weeks of counterattacks along the section of the front where Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts meet.
According to Major General Oleksandr Komarenko—the head of the Main Operational Directorate of Ukraine’s General Staff—they have “liberated more than 400 square kilometers” since the beginning of January.
Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
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Interdiction efforts inside of Russia may be having an effect as well. Frontline Russian forces reportedly are without basic logistical support. According to intercepted communications released by Ukrainian military intelligence, Russian troops in Ukraine are increasingly reporting critical shortages of food & water.
One Russian soldier complained of extreme weight loss and exhaustion, stating his uniform now “hangs on him like a coat hanger” due to malnutrition. “We don’t eat; we don’t drink at all… If I turn sideways, you wouldn’t even notice me.”
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The icing on the cake for Ukraine is its domestically produced FP-2 Frontline Strike Drones, FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles & FP-7 ballistic missiles. These homegrown & developed munitions provide Kyiv with additional capability to strike Russian targets throughout the depth of the battlefield—including in the Donbas, southern Ukraine, Crimea & deep inside the Russian motherland.
Consequently, there is no longer sanctuary or quarter afforded to Putin’s military either inside of Russia or in occupied Ukraine.
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Zelensky has cards now—notwithstanding President Donald Trump’s recent claims to the contrary—and they form a very strong hand. Not just in Ukraine but—significantly—in the Middle East as well as the Gulf States fall under drone & ballistic missile attacks by the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Ukraine is sending counter-drone teams to the Middle East to assist Arab countries in their defense against Iranian Shahed drone attacks.
Kyiv is willing to help even more. Zelensky is hoping to obtain a U.S. license to manufacture interceptors for ballistic missiles, which could “quickly produce a large number of missiles to supply not only Ukraine but all of Europe.”
Given production shortages in the U.S., this should be a no-brainer for Team Trump. Alas, the White House has yet to agree—and that, in our view, is madness.
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Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine continues with no end in sight. Only now, Kyiv is less dependent upon the West for assistance. They are producing their own munitions & are now exporting lessons learned to Europe, the U.S. & the Middle East.
That said, Ukraine still needs help. Russia continues to intentionally target Ukrainian energy & civilian infrastructure.
Kyiv—nearly—has made it to another spring. Ukraine—or perhaps more to the point, the Ukrainians themselves—have survived Putin’s fourth evil attempt to weaponize winter. Moscow shouldn’t be afforded a fifth try.
Spring—however—when it begins 9 days from now will not likely bring peace. Ukraine is actively preparing for yet another anticipated spring counteroffensive by Putin.
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Ukraine, however, must yet again beware. Kirill Dmitriev is back at it. Earlier today, he met again in Florida with Trump’s special envoy to Russia Steve Witkoff alongside Jared Kushner––Trump’s son-in-law––and White House Senior Advisor Josh Gruenbaum.
Nothing good ever comes from these meetings. Quite the opposite—like clockwork—whenever Putin recognizes that Zelensky is gaining an advantage on him, he dispatches Dmitriev to try & sweeten a post-war U.S.-Russia deal.
Team Trump—foolishly—falls for it every time. Fortunately, Zelensky has become quite adept at withstanding Dmitriev’s attempts to win at the negotiating table what Putin’s armies cannot conquer on the battlefields of Ukraine.
Plus, we can’t fail to note that this meeting comes at a time when it is clear Russian military intelligence is supplying Iran with U.S. target coordinates in the Middle East—especially its THAAD radar installations.
U.S. soldiers—as a result—have been killed & wounded because of the Kremlin’s aiding & abetting of Tehran.
That’s not acceptable.
Instead of platforming Dmitriev, Witkoff should have used the opportunity to read him the riot act & to inform Moscow that Russia will soon be paying the cost for those American casualties in Ukraine.
Instead, Witkoff agreed to “stay in touch.” That’s not the message our fellow fighting men & women fighting in the Middle East needed to hear.
It is high time Team Trump recognize Putin & Dmitriev for who they are & who they are not. They are our enemies & not our friends.
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PROGRAMMING NOTE!
Tomorrow, at 7:00 AM ET in Washington, D.C., we urge Team Trump to attack Iran’s center of gravity in our weekly Thursday national security column at The Hill.
You can read it here when it goes live.
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ICYMI
Jon was on Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt earlier today talking about the latest on the war in Iran. You can watch it here. It was a wild one. Jon’s fellow guest panelist—described as an expert—was convinced that Iran sunk a U.S. aircraft carrier.
Jon’s comments begin shortly after the 12-minute hash mark.
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Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
To see how President Zelensky comes to Americas’ aid (regardless of why we are engaging) especially after the way he was ambushed, disrespected and abandoned by tRump. Even though Ukraine paid for our protection/support in advance, having him fly here numerous times, tRump humiliated him in international media events, then welched on the deal at the most inopportune time!
I really appreciate having the map as the visual adds a more realistic view of how urgent the need for our aid is!
Thank you gentlemen for your continued service!
Hi Mark ! After three days of relative calm, crude oil prices are rising again: this doesn't bode well...