INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
03.17.2026
March 17th, 2026
Greetings from San Juan, Puerto Rico & Happy St. Patrick’s Day! Believe it or not––there is a direct connection.
I’m flying solo again today as Mark continues to support his brother following knee replacement surgery yesterday.
Today was a setback for the Trump Administration.
Photo credit/; Eric Lee / The New York Times. Trump addresses NATO after they told him no over protecting the Strait of Hormuz.
President Donald Trump received a resounding NO from his NATO colleagues, the European Union & Indo-Pacific countries for his warship request to assist in escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
Lots to discuss, so let’s get started.
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Three Dog Night’s 1969 hit song entitled “One”—written & originally recorded by Harry Nilsson—opened with this iconic line: “One is the loneliest number that you’ll ever do.”
Right now, that is the dilemma Team Trump faces when it comes to getting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Neither NATO nor EU member states displayed much enthusiasm to support President Trump’s call to duty.
On Monday, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated: “This is not our war, we have not started it.”
Following a meeting in Brussels today with EU Foreign Ministers to discuss “how to better protect shipping in the region,” Time reported that many nations expressed a reluctance to get involved in the Middle East Conflict.
Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign affairs, put it more bluntly, “This is not Europe’s war” while calling on all sides to end it & “save face.”
Asked about the possibility of the German Navy supporting escort duties, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz bluntly responded that the war has nothing to do with NATO—“it is not NATO’s war.”
You don’t need to be an intelligence analyst to see a pattern developing––Europeans remember & are intent on not letting Trump forget.
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Just over a year ago—during his opening remarks to the Ukraine Defense Contact Group—Secretary of War Pete Hegseth delivered a similar message to NATO about the war in Ukraine saying this is Europe’s war:
Photo credit: Yves Herman / Reuters. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth addressing NATO, February 2025.
“The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement. Instead, any security guarantee must be backed by capable European and non-European troops. If these troops are deployed as peacekeepers to Ukraine at any point, they should be deployed as part of a non-NATO mission. And they should not [be] covered under Article 5 … To be clear, as part of any security guarantee, there will not be U.S. troops deployed to Ukraine.”
He concluded by stating, “The United States faces consequential threats to our homeland. We must— and we are —focusing on the security of our own borders … The United States remains committed to the NATO alliance and to the defense partnership with Europe.”
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NATO’s top three—mindful of Hegseth’s lecture a year ago—are pushing back against Team Trump.
Photo credit: Leon Neal. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (left), French President Emmanuel Macron (center) & German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday that the United Kingdom would “not be drawn into the wider war,” but that it was working to “bring together a viable plan” to help secure the Strait of Hormuz.
French President Emmanuel Macron declared that France “will never take part in operations to open the Strait of Hormuz.” He added that, “France is not a party to the conflict and therefore will never take part in operations to open or liberate the Strait of Hormuz in the current context.”
He went on to say that “We are convinced that once the situation has calmed down—and I deliberately use this term broadly—once the situation has calmed down, that is to say, once the main bombing has ceased, we are ready, along with other nations, to assume responsibility for the escort system.”
German Chancellor Merz stated unequivocally that, “The [German] government will not participate in this war. Nor will it participate in a military operation to enable ships to pass the Strait of Hormuz.”
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Needless to say—Trump was not pleased—telling reporters in the Oval Office this afternoon he thought NATO was making a “very foolish mistake.”
He added that he was “disappointed” by NATO, then questioned the alliance. “I’ve long said that, you know, I wonder whether or not NATO would ever be there for us. So, this is a great test, because we don’t need them, but they should have been there.”
***
Trump then fired a warning shot, saying “Whether we get support or not, I can say this, and I said it to them [NATO]: We will remember.”
The President has been known to hold a grudge. This will likely trigger another one. His latest rant on Truth Social may foreshadow future intent:
The United States has been informed by most of our NATO “Allies” that they don’t want to get involved with our Military Operation against the Terrorist Regime of Iran, in the Middle East, this, despite the fact that almost every Country strongly agreed with what we are doing, and that Iran cannot, in any way, shape, or form, be allowed to have a Nuclear Weapon. I am not surprised by their action, however, because I always considered NATO, where we spend Hundreds of Billions of Dollars per year protecting these same Countries, to be a one way street — We will protect them, but they will do nothing for us, in particular, in a time of need. Fortunately, we have decimated Iran’s Military — Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti-Aircraft and Radar is gone and perhaps, most importantly, their Leaders, at virtually every level, are gone, never to threaten us, our Middle Eastern Allies, or the World, again! Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer “need,” or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
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One is the loneliest number & it is—at least for now—at The White House.
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As I said in last night’s INTREP360 Intelligence Report—coalition building after the fact is a challenge. Demanding support—military or otherwise—is not a good negotiating technique either.
Especially since Trump’s call for countries to contribute to escorting tankers through the strait is a reasonable one. NATO, the EU & Indo-Pacific countries all benefit from the uninterrupted flow of oil tankers through the strait.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), “in 2025, 15 million barrels per day of crude oil—nearly 34% of global crude oil trade—passed through the Strait of Hormuz. China & India combined received 44% of these exports. IEA countries import about 29% of the crude oil coming through the Strait, with Japan and Korea particularly reliant on oil flows passing through the Strait. Around 600 thousand barrels per day, or just 4%, of the region’s crude flows are routed into Europe.”
They all have a vested interest, yet they are failing to act.
Why?
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The overly simplistic answer is likely two-fold—Trump & Iran.
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It’s all in the delivery, and the Trump in-your-face bull in the china shop approach is wearing thin—indeed, it had already worn thin.
It’s been a long 14 months for Europe dealing with the Trump Administration—but specifically the President, his Vice President J.D. Vance & Hegseth. Tariffs, Greenland, support to Ukraine, an America First approach to national security, reduced support to NATO, and now a war with Iran they––NATO & the EU––were not even consulted over.
Former U.S. Ambassador John Bolton hit the nail on the head Monday in an interview on CNN. “Among other mistakes Trump made before undertaking this operation was not consulting adequately with our allies. He also didn’t prepare the American people and didn’t prepare the Congress.”
It was a coalition of two—the U.S. & Israel, and clearly, they assumed risk with their timeline on regime collapse, which afforded Iran the ability to shut down the strait. CENTCOM continues to make progress on its military objectives, as does Israel against regime leadership & their center of gravity—the IRGC.
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As the saying goes, “you catch more flies with honey.”
Eliciting support now calls for a persuasive argument delivered in a non-confrontational manner. Building upon existing relations works best; therefore, maybe that should be left to CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper or NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander, who is dual-hatted as the U.S. European Command Commander, Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich.
Photo credit: CENTCOM. CENTCOM Commander, Admiral Brad Cooper.
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Then there is Iran & the possibility the regime survives this. Fear of retribution—in the form of price hikes, terrorist attacks, etc.—could play a role in Europe’s decision making. Assurances from the Trump Administration that they will see the mission through—regime change—could help alleviate that concern.
As former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill said during World War II, “There is only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that is fighting without them.” Team Trump—at least for now—is learning that lesson.
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Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.