INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

06.15.2026: PUTIN'S GENOCIDE AGAINST UKRAINE

June 15^th, 2026

Greetings!

There is an early 20^th century line — cliché, really at this point — that you cannot put lipstick on a pig and expect it to look any better. Retired Gen. Jack Keane said it best today to Sean Hannity on Fox News: “You know that, Sean! You know you can’t trust these people!” These people being the Iranians.

Yet that was what Vice President JD Vance was doing today in multiple media appearances as he tried to sell President Donald Trump’s decision to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Releasing the MOU might have helped. However, the White House thus far has kept it sealed and instead is relying on Vance, background briefings to reporters, and comments Trump has made throughout the day.

By the time you wake up Tuesday, we should have the released version. Brace yourself because the fact that we do not have it tonight is a strong indicate that it is a really, really bad deal for the U.S. that simply allows Iran to extend the clock and get access to oil revenues due to the ending of the U.S. blockade of Iranian seaports.

We will have a lot more to say about the MOU in tomorrow’s INTREP360 Intelligence Report. However, for today’s edition, we feel compelled to focus on Ukraine given Russian President Vladimir Putin’s heinous decision to launch a series of ballistic missile and drone strikes against cultural sites across Kyiv.

Photo credit: Unknown. A fire blazes on the roof of the Dormition Cathedral at Kyiv Pechersk Lavra after a Russian ballistic missile and drone attack on Kyiv on June 15^th, 2026.

Putin may have scored a hit on the UNESCO World Heritage site, however, in doing so he told the world that Russia is losing in Ukraine. It really is, at the risk of sounding cliché, a case of the good, the bad, and the ugly.

Let’s get started!

***

THE GOOD

To fully understand why the Kremlin targeted the 11^th century Kyiv Pechersk Lavra monastery in Kyiv, we need to understand just how badly Putin’s so-called ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine is going.

As both of us detailed in a 20-minute news magazine segment hosted by our good friend Daniel Tkiie on First Western TV in Lviv, Ukraine, Moscow is facing military setbacks in every theater and operations area of the war.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) continue to pummel Russia’s vital oil and energy sectors by launching deep-precision strikes on its refining and export logistics as far away as St. Petersburg –– Putin’s hometown and political power base.

Conservatively speaking, Russia has been forced to scale back or halt 25% of its overall refining capacity. Consequently, it is estimated that Putin’s economy is losing $50 to $60 million a day in lost energy revenues. That is a significant increase compared to 2025 when Moscow was losing $35 million a day.

Thus far, since the start of the war on February 24^th, 2022, Ukraine has hit at least 24 out of 33 major Russian refineries. In 2026 alone, Ukraine through May conducted 32 strikes matching its 2024 total in only five months.

Economically speaking, Ukraine is bleeding Putin’s Russia to death. Plus, there are no signs Ukraine is going to let up. Especially since, thus far, the Kremlin has not been able to create an effective air defense against the AFU’s deep strikes using Ukrainian-made FP-5 Flamingo, FP-7 Pelican, and Palianytsia missiles as well as drones.

Ukrainian growing drone arsenal includes An-196 Liutyis, UJ-26 Beavers, UJ-22 Airbornes, AQ-400 Scythes, FP-1s, FP-2s, Zozulias, Hornets and a dozen others. The point being here is that Ukraine’s deep-strike capacity continues to dynamically expand while the Kremlin struggles to find answers.

So too does the hit to Russia’s GDP. Recent forecasts indicate that Moscow’s projected 2026 GDP has been halved to a dismal 0.5% growth rate.

The AFU also continues to bleed Russia on the frontlines. As of today, according to the Defense of Ukraine on X, 1,384,190 Russian and allied soldiers have been killed or wounded as a part of Putin’s bloody war. That is nearly 20,000 new Russian casualties inflicted by the AFU in the month of June alone.

Defense of Ukraine@DefenceU

«Optimism means better than reality; pessimism means worse than reality. I'm a realist.» Margaret Atwood The combat losses of the enemy from February 24, 2022 to June 15, 2026.

6:42 AM · Jun 15, 2026 · 27K Views

---

42 Replies · 439 Reposts · 2.14K Likes

As it is, Russia during 2026 has not been able to replace the number of soldiers lost on the frontlines in Ukraine with new Russian recruits.

As the oft-repeated saying goes, the ‘math isn’t mathing’ for Putin.

***

THE BAD

The bad is obviously the human cost to Ukraine. Its soldiers and civilians continue to be murdered by Putin’s military.

Plus, as we documented very early on in the war for National Security News in London, Russia has continuously targeted key Ukrainian cultural sites. The only difference overnight is that Putin started going after globally known historic landmarks in Kyiv, including the nearly 1000-year-old Kyiv Pechersk Lavra monastery.

In doing so, Putin has exposed himself.

***

THE UGLY

The ugly continues to be the U.S. and European response. The Russian assaults on Ukrainian civilians and cultural sites could be ended – or largely mitigated against – if Europe would finally follow through on a no-fly zone in western Ukraine.

Alas, Europe talks but never walks the walk where it could make a decisive difference in the AFU’s ability to defend its citizens and free resources to eventually launch a ground offensive to retake the Crimean Peninsula.

Dithering never won a war. Nor can scheduling one meeting after the next to discuss what might eventually be done to win this war either.

This week’s G7 is yet another classic example. French President Emmanuel Macron, its host, was hoping to reset Europe and Washington’s focus on solving the war in Ukraine. However, Trump’s MOU with Iran upstaged that (as well as Macron).

Regardless, why does Europe need any more meetings or summits? The United Kingdom, France and Germany — its titular leaders —have had four plus years now to figure out a winning plan. And yet still, while Ukraine fights, they remain collectively clueless how to confront Russia and Putin, despite both being weaker than ever.

It’s madness. And it’s unbelievable. Yet here we are. Enough meetings. More, as wartime British Prime Minister Winston Churchill urgently often put it, ‘Action This Day!’

***

PUTIN’S CRUMBLING WAR NARRATIVE

Putin’s war narratives have since the start of the war changed and evolved as setbacks on the frontlines have piled up. However, until now, one key Russian narrative — and it is a religious one — has thus far survived.

And it is?

That Putin’s war is a Holy War to reunite Russia with its mythical Kievan Rus’ past and the origins of Orthodox Christianity in Eastern Europe.

In one of our earliest articles writing together as colleagues, we detailed in July 2022, the various narratives Putin has employed to justify his war.

First, it was Kievan Rus’ and then it was to de-Nazify Ukraine. Then, when those failed, it was to help create a multi-polar world with China and Russia as its new combined center of economic and military gravity thereby displacing the U.S. and the West.

Yet it was Kievan Rus’ mythology that Putin had invested in most. For most of the war, as evidenced by his interview with Tucker Carlson, he has still clung to it.

Two bronze statues in Kyiv and Moscow tell the story. One is of Volodymyr the Great in Kyiv. The other is of Vladimir the Great in Moscow. They are statues of the same man, who was the founder of the proto-state of Kievan Rus’.

However, there is one key difference. St. Volodymyr in Kyiv is real Ukrainian history. Putin’s statue of St. Vladimir?

It is coopted history. The real St. Volodymyr never made it anywhere near to Moscow, or for that matter, near St. Petersburg either.

Putin is the one who built the St. Vladimir statue in Moscow in 2016. It faces Kyiv 470 miles to the southwest. The statue was part of Putin’s efforts to create a historical mythology inside modern-day Russia to justify conquering Ukraine.

Yesterday, however, in his dastardly attack on the Pechersk Lavra monastery in Kyiv, Putin proved he doesn’t give a damn about history. He only cares about waging a genocidal war against the people of Ukraine.

***

ICYMI #1

Last week, we appeared on First Western TV in Ukraine. The newsmagazine show was hosted by our good friend Daniel Tkiie.

We outline the various ways Ukraine is seizing the initiative against Russia both in terms of deep, intermediate, and frontline strikes in 10-kilometer-wide kill zones.

It is initially broadcast over-the-air and then uploaded in English and Ukrainian on YouTube. You can watch it here.

***

ICYMI #2

Earlier today, in our regular weekday foreign affairs column for The Washington Star, we warned the White House that President Trump has an IRGC problem in Iran. No amount of Iranian pinky promises is going to make that go away.

Photo credit: Israel Defense Forces. Hezbollah’s projectiles fell near Shomera and Shlomi in northern Israel.

You can read it here. It is not paywalled at our request.

***

ICYMI #3

Mark was on Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt earlier today. He discussed the latest developments in Iran.

He also reiterated that Hezbollah is acting at the behest of the IRGC and that Lebanon likely will be where the MOU founders.

You can watch the full segment here. The segment is in Arabic.

***

ICYMI #4

Mark was also on Q News in Cairo, Egypt. Q News is the English-speaking news service of Al Qahera News.

Ostensibly, the segment was to focus on the opening of the G7 Summit. However, it took a turn and Ukraine was raised. Mark’s fellow guest panelist quickly began arguing that the Donbas and Ukraine by extension were unimportant to Western Europe’s security.

By the time the discussion returned to Mark, he had had enough. When asked his opinion of the other guest’s views, Mark dispensed with his normal decorum and characterized the Frenchman’s assessment of Ukraine as “Nonsense!”

You can watch it here. The segment is in English.

***

Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.