INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
06.11.2026: DEAL OR NO DEAL IN IRAN?
June 11th, 2026
Greetings!
Jon is off today as he is playing the good uncle to his young nephew who is visiting family in Puerto Rico.
My apologies upfront. I had intended this edition of our INTREP360 Intelligence Report to be far better researched, however, as I sat down to pen it, I received word that my late mother’s youngest sister is gravely ill.
I need to hit the road soon to try and see her one last time.
However, before I head west, I wanted to at least give you an outline of our thoughts — Jon & I did get a chance to talk today — and about the developments we are tracking between President Donald Trump and Iran.
Photo credit: Eric Lee / New York Times. President Donald Trump at the Oval Office on June 11th, 2026.
Let’s get started!
***
GETTHEREITIS
As we noted earlier today in The Washington Star, Trump has been all over the place today on Iran.
Early this morning, Trump angrily posted on Truth Social that “The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT.”
The President also threatened that, “At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela.”
Then, nearly five hours later, he posted on Truth Social saying “Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening.”
One word immediately caught our eye: “discussions.” That is not the kind of word you use if an agreement is a ‘done deal.’
To our intel eyes and ears, it felt like a message was being delivered, likely at the request of the Qataris (more on this below).
Back to Trump. He then spent a good chunk of his day taking victory laps. Early on, he told Caitlin Doornbos at the New York Post that the deal with Iran was “pretty much wrapped up.”
Pretty much?
Again, that is not how you usually characterize a ‘done deal.’
Then, during remarks made in the Oval Office, Trump told reporters that “We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran.”
That certainly sounded more definitive. However, we sensed Trump backtracking a bit when he was asked when the deal would be signed.
His answer?
“It’ll be soon. Maybe this weekend.” He also pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz “will officially open as soon as we sign, …maybe over the weekend in Europe.”
Maybe is not a decisive word either.
Then, in classic Trump fashion, over the course of three sentences, he swung back and forth between it being a done deal: “They have all approved the deal. Everybody’s approved the deal. Now we will get it finished up, and hopefully that will be done.”
Hopefully?
In fairness, Trump was likely referring to U.S. allies and not necessarily Iran itself. Still, he left it as ambiguous. Plus, given that he listed ten countries, including “Israel, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, [and] Egypt,” call me suspicious, but it would take a small miracle to get that many governments to quickly agree to anything, much less a deal to end the war.
Especially since Israel said they had received no prior heads-up from the White House. More on that curious case of war allies below.
By later this evening he was back to certainty. Speaking during a virtual rally for Burt Jones, Trump boasted that “We ended the war with Iran today.”
The only problem for Trump was that Iran responded saying, not so fast. Multiple officials and news agencies quickly claimed that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei had not yet agreed to the deal.
Trump, it seems, is suffering yet again from what my late father and late grandfather warned me about as a kid: GETTHEREITIS. Both were pilots and often told me the best way to ensure that you never arrive safely at your destination is to rush the process of checking the weather, inspecting the plane, and manually making sure the fuel tanks were full.
***
IRAN’S RESPONSE
Esmaeil Baghaei, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, declared via IRNA, the Iranian regime’s official news agency, that Tehran “has not yet made a final decision on a possible agreement with the U.S.” He then added that “reports regarding a time and place of signing the agreement remained speculative and that nothing had been finalized.”
His kicker?
Baghaei defiantly said that Iran “will not compromise on its ‘red lines’ in negotiations.” That was likely code that Tehran is unwilling to accept meaningful curbs on uranium enrichment, its ballistic missile and drone programs. It also signaled that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has no intention of ceasing its support, arming, and funding of the Axis of Resistance — including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
Other IRGC-linked and semi-official media outlets, including the Far News Agency and Mehrs, also explicitly denied that it was a done deal. Essentially, they each characterized Trump’s claims as not reflecting reality.
ISRAEL’S RESPONSE
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, if you read between the lines, appears highly skeptical of the deal.
His office released the following statement on X:
“President Trump spoke this evening with Prime Minister Netanyahu regarding the emerging memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran to enter into negotiations.
Even though Israel is not a party to the memorandum of understanding, the Prime Minister expressed his appreciation for President Trump’s commitment that the final agreement at the conclusion of negotiations will include the removal of enriched material, the dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, limits on missile production, and the cessation of Iran’s support for its terrorist proxies in the region.”
Bibi, as Netanyahu is called in Israel, clearly went much further into detail than Trump had. Remember, Trump today said the nuclear issue was 95% of the deal. The Israeli Prime Minister essentially demanded that it include a lot more. That tells me that Jerusalem is deeply worried that Trump caved on some or all of those issues, especially Iran’s ongoing support of the Axis of Resistance.
***
QATARI MISCHIEF?
Early in the day, as the news of a potential deal was breaking, I was exchanging messages with our good friend Kelly Torrance. Full disclosure: She is also our editor at The Washington Star and is essentially serving as its relaunch editor.
I told her my gut feeling was that the Qataris got Trump to stand down in a very similar manner to how Pakistan did on April 7th when the initial ceasefire was agreed to. I also speculated that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were used by the Qataris as dupes to tell Trump a peace deal was close if only the president would call off tonight’s strikes.
Reporting in Axios later confirmed my suspicions. Barak Ravid said that his “sources noted that both the Iranians and the Qataris had emphasized that the U.S. strikes overnight significantly increased Iranian suspicions about Trump’s real intentions.”
Again, reading between the lines, in my view, the Qataris were essentially asking Trump to pull back from striking Iran tonight as a confidence-building measure.
Politico later confirmed my suspicions. Dasha Burns and Felicia Schwartz reported that “senior officials from Qatar, the UAE, and Pakistan” asked Trump to stand down.
That he did, but then he also started doing victory laps and, in the process, the president set himself up to be humiliated by the Iranians.
***
IRAN TROLLS TRUMP
This post by Tasnim News, another semi-official news agency in Iran, says it all. Citing CNN’s tally, they sarcastically note today that “Trump has said 39 times so far that a deal with Iran is close.” Ouch.
***
ENDGAME?
Time will tell. Iran might sign the deal and then again, they may not. For now, Tehran has trapped Trump in a state of limbo of his own making.
I suspect, but cannot know, that the IRGC will milk this for all of its worth as well as a way of extending the clock.
For now, Iran’s actions are what count. And the early returns are not good. According to reporting by Jennifer Griffin at Fox News, Tehran “fired several drones tonight at commercial vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz.”
That is Iran’s way of saying they still own the strait and that they intend to do so after any future deal gets done.
If pressed to take a side, my gut tells me that Iran is playing Trump. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, and Abbas Araghchi are either in on it or simply acting beyond their pay grade.
IMO?
It is still Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, the head of the IRGC, who is calling the shots and ultimately, he is going to say, ‘no deal.’ If not now, then he will eventually do so if a 60-day deal is struck between Washington and Iran.
***
POSTSCRIPT
Barak Ravid is reporting that U.S. military planes carrying equipment that would be used by Vice President JD Vance were dispatched to Europe “in preparation for the possibility of a trip by Vice President Vance to a signing ceremony in Geneva in the coming days.”
Ravid also said that “A diplomat from one of the mediating countries, who went over the clauses of the updated draft with me, said that “the US and Iran have reached an agreement on the text of the deal,” but admitted that final approval is still required.”
Time will tell. This still feels like Kabuki theater to me.
***
PROGRAMMING NOTE
I was scheduled to appear on TVP World on Friday, June 12th at 2:20 PM ET or 21:20 CET but in light of my aunt’s health, I had to cancel.
Jon has offered to take my place.
If that is acceptable to TVP World, you can watch Jon here. The broadcast is in English.
***
ICYMI #1
In our latest weekly Thursday national security column at The Hill, we argue that Trump simply does not know how to win in Iran.
CENTCOM has the answer. The president needs to greenlight them and then get out of Adm. Brad Cooper’s way.
Photo credit: Julia Demaree Nikhinson / AP. President Trump in an undated photograph at The White House.
You can read it here.
***
ICYMI #2
Early today, in our regular weekday foreign affairs column for The Washington Star, we questioned whether or not Trump’s threat to seize Kharg Island moved Iran toward agreeing to a deal.
Photo credit: Tasnim News Agency. Kharg Island, which is located in the northern Persian Gulf.
You can read it here. It is not paywalled at our request.
***
ICYMI #3
Jon was on Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt earlier today. He discussed the lates developments in Iran.
You can watch it here. The segment is in Arabic.
***
ICYMI #4
I was also on Al Qahera News today. My appearance was prior to Trump’s announcement that he had called off the strikes tonight on Iran. We focused primarily on his threat to seize Kharg Island.
You can watch it here. The segment is in Arabic.
***
Thank you for reading. Jon will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
Prayers for your Aunt Mr. Toth, and an excellent article.
The Iranians are bluffing.