INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
05.26.2026: TRUMP IS GETTING PLAYED BY IRAN
May 26th, 2026
Greetings!
War rarely takes a holiday & that was once again the case over the Memorial Day weekend. Kyiv was hit by one of the largest single-day Russian mass attacks of the war, Israel expanded its operations in southern Lebanon & earlier today, the U.S. destroyed four Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
We are planning a dedicated edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report in the days ahead focusing on Ukraine to coincide with the airing of a special segment Mark taped today for First Western TV in Lviv. It will focus on tactics employed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine that have significantly altered battlefield geometry in Ukraine — forcing the Kremlin to react & draw deeper into its reserves.
Ukraine has seized the initiative.
For today, however, we are going to focus on the strategic mess President Donald J. Trump finds himself in as a result of his ever-changing approach to trying to negotiate an end to the hot war in Iran.
AI image credit: Grok. Illustration depicting President Donald J. Trump negotiating with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leader Ahmad Vahidi hiding behind a mask.
Up until Vice President JD Vance walked away from Islamabad on April 12th, Washington controlled the narrative. Ever since, Tehran has systematically flipped the script to the point where Trump is now willing to wait to discuss ending Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
Even if a memorandum of understanding gets signed, this likely will not end well. Iran, in our view, is simply playing Trump for time.
Let’s get started understanding how & why.
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FLAWED ARCHITECTURE
As Mark noted Sunday on Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt, we’ve seen this economic-centric architecture before — namely from Steve Witkoff & Jared Kushner in Ukraine. Team Trump, rather naively in our view, believes that business deals, especially ones that are advantageous to the U.S., can unlock peace deals.
It didn’t work in Kyiv. Ukraine was never going to trade its Fortress Donbas for an illusory peace deal with Putin.
Nor will Iran — especially on a permanent basis — trade its nuclear weapons program for U.S. sanctions relief. At best, they might exchange part of it for temporary relief; however, post-Trump they will pursue a sprint to nuclear breakout.
Interestingly, once it became clear, at least it did to us, that Witkoff & Kushner’s fingerprints were all over this latest Trump approach, Kirill Dmitriev, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy to the U.S., quickly supported them on X. He said, “The world needs peace to avoid catastrophic irreversible collapse.”
Dmitriev, after all, helped author Witkoff & Kushner’s Ukraine plan in between wake-surfing in Miami. Yes, the world needs peace; however, it is notable that Dmitriev didn’t urge his boss to stop his illegal invasion of Ukraine in the name of the global economy.
Neither Putin, nor Maj. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, cares one iota about peace. They are both men of war. That is why Trump’s latest negotiating strategy with Iran is fatally flawed.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has never sought peace throughout its 47-year history save when — for existential reasons — it needs a temporary break from war. Vahidi is down for the count. Witkoff & Kushner are giving him a chance to fight another day.
That’s not good for the U.S. Nor is it good for the greater Middle East. Trump, by potentially allowing the Iranian regime to survive, is, as Mark posted on X, verging on making the single biggest strategic mistake in U.S. history.
As he said, Witkoff & Kushner’s approach is predicated upon economic opportunities & not U.S. national security costs. Instead of destroying the Iranian Pandora’s Box, they are blowing it wide open.
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NO, A BAD DEAL IS NOT BETTER THAN MORE WAR
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) has it wrong. During an appearance on The View, he said, to great audience applause, that a “bad deal” with Iran is “better than” more war.
That type of domestic defeatism is as foolhardy as Witkoff & Kushner’s economic-centric thinking. Ignoring Iran now — and the nuclear Pandora’s Box that has been opened — is not in the long-term strategic interest of the U.S.
Consider what a bad deal could look like. Iran emerges effectively controlling the Strait of Hormuz at will. That would mean, at any time of Vahidi’s choosing, he could blackmail the global economy to fund his military, his pursuit of nukes, & his Axis of Resistance proxies, including Hamas, the Houthis & Hezbollah.
It would also likely create a strategic opening for China to replace the U.S. in the future as the dominant superpower in the region. Beijing, after all, gets between 50% and 55% of its oil from across the Middle East.
Murphy, like Witkoff & Kushner, is failing to consider U.S. national security interests on a global basis. Now isn’t a good time for the U.S. to return to isolationism, especially as Russia & China are colluding to displace U.S. hegemony.
We want this war to end too. But it won’t as long as Vahidi & the hardline regime in Tehran remains in power. It might pause, but it will not end.
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THE MAN BEHIND THE IRON MASK
To get back on track, Team Trump must fully recognize the man behind Iran’s iron negotiating mask. It is — as we’ve often argued here — Vahidi. He is the de facto leader of Iran & is even more powerful than Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei.
Photo credit: Vahid Salemi / AP. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander in Chief Ahmad Vahidi in 2024, when he was serving as Iran’s interior minister.
His long-term aims, most assuredly, are not the same as what his negotiators are saying. Men like Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, and Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, are serving as negotiating masks for Vahidi.
At best, Ghalibaf & Araghchi are useful idiots to Vahidi, or at worst — which is more likely the case — they are willing co-conspirators to deceive the U.S. Either way, they can’t — and shouldn’t be trusted by Trump.
Undoubtedly, in our view, their assignment is to play Team Trump for time and, if they can pull it off, get paid to do it by achieving full or partial sanctions relief.
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BEWARE THE SULTAN OF OMAN
To that end, beware Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, the Sultan of Oman. Already pro-Iran, he is already angling for Oman to replace the United Arab Emirates & Qatar as the Iranian regime’s Gulf State bankers of choice.
Yesterday, it was reported for Fars News Agency that the Sultan signed an “executive decree ordering Oman to increase its volume of trade and economic relations with Iran. To be fair, there has been no official confirmation by Muscat.
Earlier, on Sunday, Oman hosted an Iranian delegation to discuss a return to a working relationship, especially where the Strait of Hormuz is involved. The contested strategic waterway begins in the Gulf of Oman & ends in the Persian Gulf between Iran to the east & the UAE to the west.
Notably, Oman didn’t sign the Gulf Cooperation Council’s Circular Letter 5028, which on May 20th “condemned Iran for unilaterally assuming powers of sovereign governance through its Persian Gulf Strait Authority, and for attempting to divert traffic to an unsafe channel to levy fees and exert controls.”
Iran has since argued they are only “environmental protection” and navigational fees. Put us down as not fooled. They are illegal tolls.
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TRUMP IS LOSING THE INITIATIVE
As evidenced by Oman, Trump is losing the initiative in the Persian Gulf. Whether wittingly or not, he is creating a vacuum & the Gulf States are responding by attempting to forge alternative accommodations with Tehran.
Nothing good will come of that.
Collectively, they lack the military capability of winning any prolonged conflict with Iran because of Vahidi’s willingness to fight an asymmetric war. The Gulf States, for instance, are very vulnerable to attacks on their desalination water plants.
Riyadh, absent its facility, would likely be forced to evacuate the city if Iran successfully destroyed it.
Likewise, Iran last week attacked the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the UAE and repeatedly during the war intentionally targeted the Gulf States’ oil & energy infrastructure — the core of their economies.
All of this is playing into the hands of Vahidi. Not only is he winning at the negotiating table. Iran is also beginning to win against the very countries Tehran intentionally attacked to asymmetrically fight the U.S.
No wonder Mojtaba — or whoever is speaking for him — claimed that the Gulf States would no longer be a shield for the U.S. He added that the U.S. no longer possesses “a safe haven in the region.”
Trump is convinced that he is winning. However, the region doesn’t necessarily see it that way. Clearly, they fear the U.S. may cut & run.
To be sure, they want it both ways. They don’t want a resumption of the war. But they also want a way out from Vahidi’s thumb.
For now, absent a better solution, it seems they are increasingly prepared to buy their way out. That might temporarily solve their problem, but it doesn’t help ensure the end of Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
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A BRIDGE NAMED ABRAHAM TOO FAR
It was immediately clear over the weekend that Trump received significant pushback from Iran hawks on Capitol Hill. Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) condemned it and implored the president to “finish the job.” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) also expressed hesitancy over Team Trump taking its foot off the gas pedal.
He urged Trump to “get this right.”
Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Trump, during his Saturday call with Gulf State leaders, tacked on everyone joining the Abraham Accords & recognizing Israel in the process. Absolutely, that was a lofty goal, but it was also immediately clear, as Mark said on Al Qahera, simply a bridge too far.
Saudi Arabia immediately rejected it.
In that vein, Trump’s attempt at domestic political damage control merely resulted in further muddling his strategy in the Middle East. As Mark also noted on Al Qahera News several times over the weekend, it is as if Trump is in search of a strategy to ensure that he is perceived as banking a strategic win.
There is only one way to do that.
To effect true regime change in Iran. Until Vahidi & his fellow hardliners are ousted from power, there can be no strategic victory in Iran. No matter what they may sign, they are not going to give up their nukes, nor are they suddenly going to become the rock of stability in the Mideast.
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ICYMI #1
Earlier today, Mark appeared on Al Qahera News TV in Cairo, Egypt. When asked by the host, Kamal Madi, whether he thought a peace deal was close, Mark answered no. Not from a timeline standpoint, but rather because the two sides are still far apart on the nuclear issue.
Equally notably, it was increasingly clear that Pakistan is no longer a reliable mediator. One of the other guests was a former Pakistani media minister. He accused the U.S. of conducting an illegal war & that it was only being fought because of the Epstein files.
You can watch an excerpt here.
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ICYMI #2
Mark was also on Al Qahera yesterday. He was asked whether Beijing will mediate a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. Mark said that was highly unlikely.
You can watch an excerpt here.
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ICYMI #3
Mark, likewise, appeared on Al Qahera on Sunday. This was the segment where he said the MOU’s architecture looked like it was designed by Witkoff & Kushner.
You can watch an excerpt here.
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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
Why do I keep hearing the "Jeopardy" theme music when reading about Trum's Iran strategy? 🤔