INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

03.26.2026

March 26^th, 2026

Greetings!

It’s been a while due to the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran since we’ve penned a round-the-world sweep of the top stories impacting U.S. national security and that of our key allies. Given President Donald Trump’s 10-day extension to Iran to consider his 15-point peace plan, we thought today would be a good day to circle the globe.

For now—during this limited negotiation period—Trump is vowing that the U.S. will not attack Iranian energy infrastructure & power grids.

Meanwhile—however—the U.S. and Israel are continuing their aerial bombardment of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The U.S. alone—according to Central Command (CENTCOM)—has now hit 10,000 targets during Operation Epic Fury.

Despite Trump’s offer of negotiations, the U.S. is continuing to build combat power throughout the region. This could include—according to reporting in The Wall Street Journal this evening—an additional 10,000 U.S. ground troops being deployed to the Middle East in addition to the 50,000 soldiers in the theaters of operation.

Elsewhere in Iran, Israel is continuing its decapitation campaign. Earlier today, Adm. Brad Cooper, the Commander of CENTCOM, confirmed that Adm. Alireza Tangsiri—the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) Navy—was killed by an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) airstrike. As noted by Cooper, Tangsiri “was designated as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist by the U.S. Treasury in 2019.”

For now, that leaves Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, the commander-in-chief of the IRGC, in charge. Like his predecessor, he is a hardliner. He got the job––or death sentence, most likely—after his predecessor Mohammad Pakpour was killed on February 28^th—the opening day of the war that also killed Ali Khamenei.

Photo credit: Atta Kenare / AFP. Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, the powerful new commander of the IRGC, speaking in Tehran, Iran on March 4^th, 2024.

Earlier today, The Telegraph in London described Vahidi as “the key cog in the [Iranian] regime’s chain of command. Notably & correctly—as pointed out by Kasra Aarabi & Saeid Golkar in The Telegraph—Vahidi is a “Khamenei absolutist.”

It is his war—for now—to win or lose.

That said, before we pivot to scanning the globe, let’s be clear here. From a military perspective, the U.S. is winning the war in Iran.

Ignore the sensationalist headlines including in today’s edition of The Economist. This is—as we’ve repeatedly said now—a campaign, not a two-hour video game. Of course there are setbacks. The enemy gets a vote. Ditto, there are always things that need to be done better, including better protecting forward U.S. military bases & personnel.

But, make no mistake, the initiative in this war remains with Adm. Cooper, his force of 50,000 American soldiers & the Israelis. As our friend—and Jon’s former fellow officer—Mike Pregent pointed out today on X, “The new and temporary leadership in Iran has no control over the actions of disparate IRGC cells conducting “Pray and Spray Pineapple fires”—they are doing damage control and trying to project a coordinated effort that does not exist.”

Surviving is the goal, but that won’t be enough. More U.S. military power is coming unless Iran capitulates at the negotiating table.

Let’s get started sweeping the world!

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NORTH AMERICA

It’s not just U.S. forward military bases in the Middle East that the Pentagon needs to be rethinking its defensive strategies. The risk is real at home as well—especially from asymmetrical attacks from increasingly sophisticated drones.

We are getting a clearer of understanding of what happened at Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana on March 6^th when a swarm of “12 to 15 drones [began] operating over sensitive areas of the installation, including its flight lines.”

This is a big deal.

Barksdale is home to the 2^nd Bomb Wing—a key part of the U.S.’ nuclear deterrent. Similar incidents have been reported at other U.S. military facilities. For now, the intent wasn’t clear, but it is alarming that the drones purportedly were able to evade jamming countermeasures.

Most U.S. military bases lack air defenses. That needs to change and change fast in context of next generation drones.

Ukraine proved why.

Last year in an attack code-named Operation Spider’s Web, Ukraine smuggled drones deep inside of Russia and used them to attack the Kremlin’s strategic bomber fleet––part of its nuclear deterrent––at four different Russian airbases.

Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.

As you can see by the ISW graph, Ukraine’s reach was vastly increased by using smuggled drones to attack the Olenya, Ivanovo, Dyagilevo, & Belaya Russian air bases. China—or other malign actors—might seek to do the same in the U.S.

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LATIN AMERICA

Juan Carlos Valencia González—according to Mexican & U.S. officials—is the new head of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. He is the stepson of Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes who was the head of the Mexican drug cartel prior to being killed earlier this year when Mexican authorities attempted to arrest him.

But there is a twist.

Valencia Gonzalez is a U.S. citizen. That complicates interdicting him but of course doesn’t make it impossible.

The killing of El Mencho resulted in widespread violence in Mexican cities popular with American tourists, including Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta.

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SOUTH AMERICA

Earlier today, Argentina—following suit with the U.S.—has also labeled the Jalisco New Generation Cartel as a terrorist ‌organization. This follows Team Trump’s efforts to recast drug cartels as transnational extremist organizations.

Thus far, Argentinian President Javier Milei—a close Trump ally—is the only South American country to do so. Canada also has declared the cartel a terrorist group.

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EUROPE

The Institute for the Study of War is assessing—and we concur—that “Russian forces are unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt [in eastern Ukraine] any sooner than late 2027, assuming they can at all.” If we had to predict—disclaimer, we are not in the business of making predictions, just real time & over-the-hill analyses—we’d bet on never at all.

Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.

In tomorrow’s INTREP360—a special Friday edition—we will be taking a deep dive into where the war in Ukraine is at defensively, offensively & geopolitically.

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Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is quickly becoming the face of European opposition to Trump. Since the beginning of the war in Iran, Sánchez has refused permission for the U.S. to use its bases in Spain to wage war against Tehran.

He believes that “this war in Iran is a big mistake for the world and therefore for the U.S.” That said, Sánchez—as well as other European leaders—would do well to consider the long-term implications to NATO.

Understandably, Europe has real and legitimate grievances with Trump over his brinksmanship approach to Denmark & Greenland. We said so at the time—and we still hold that position. Washington should never threaten a NATO ally.

Europe also is rightly alarmed by Trump’s repeated attempts to force—if not coerce—Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to capitulate to Russian President Vladimir Putin by ceding the entirety of the Donbas—including its Fortress Belt—to Russia in exchange for a tenuous at best peace settlement & a post-war U.S. security guarantee.

That said, the future of NATO is hanging in the balance. Despite bravado from London, Berlin, Paris & Brussels, Europe is in no position to go it alone against the Russian Federation. Not only does it lack a sufficient nuclear deterrent, but it also lacks the military satellites necessary to fight a modern war.

Someone needs to be the bigger man—or woman—here. Trump is not going to be that person. It is going to take Europe to overcome its anger with Trump. Now is the time to do it and Iran is the place to do it.

If not––and Trump is already signaling this––fair or not, there is going to be hell to pay & Ukraine could end up being the innocent victim.

It’s time for Europe to pull back from the brink. Circle the NATO wagons and get on the same page with Team Trump over Iran.

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AFRICA

Nigeria is making a play to become an even stronger regional power in the Sahel. First, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu last year, proved very adept at turning Trump’s threats to attack Nigeria over the killing of Christians by terrorists into a military alliance with Washington to fight back against ISIS-linked groups fighting across the Sahel. Just last month, the U.S. dispatched 200 more U.S. troops to Nigeria to fight against one of those groups—Boko Haram.

Photo credit: Aaron Chown / PA. Queen Camilla, King Charles, President Bola Tinubu & his wife, Oluremi Tinubu, before the state banquet at Windsor Castle last week.

Now, Tinubu is making his economic case globally. Last week he and his wife—Oluremi Tinubu—attended a state visit to the United Kingdom where they were received by King Charles II & Queen Camilla for a state dinner at Windsor Castle.

Nigeria—still—is Africa’s largest economy & Tinubu is definitely a man to watch. He could, especially since Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy effectively abandoned Africa, be key to anchoring U.S. interests in central Africa & beyond—especially given Trump’s growing rift with South Africa & its president Cyril Ramaphosa.

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INDO-PACIFIC

China is increasingly making New Zealand nervous. That nervousness kicked into high gear last year after “a Chinese naval task force sailed around Australia and conducted live-fire drills between Australia and New Zealand.”

Consequently, Wellington is planning on spending $7 billion “on its military in the next few years, on things like enhanced strike capabilities, new helicopters, antitank missiles, drones for air and sea surveillance, and much-needed upgrades to aging bases.”

New Zealand’s newfound sense of urgency should be a wake-up call as well to Capitol Hill. Deterring China is just as important as winning in Iran & Ukraine. It is—as we oft-argue—the same fight against the Axis of Evil.

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ICYMI #1!

Today, our weekly 7:00 AM ET national security column at The Hill in Washington, D.C., focused on Trump’s self-defeating lack of strategic patience & knack of getting in the way of his generals, intelligence analysts & diplomats.

Photo credit: Alex Bandon / Associated Press.

He needs a hard reset. You can read it here.

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ICYMI #2!

Today, in an exclusive for the Kyiv Post in Ukraine, we explored Trump’s strange dichotomy in how he is approaching Iran & Ukraine.

Photo credit: Jim Watson / AFP.

Especially since it’s the same fight against the Axis of Evil. You can read it here.

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Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.