INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
05.12.2026
May 12th, 2026
Greetings!
As I start to write this Tuesday edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report, I just received a communique from the White House press pool that after a refueling stop in Anchorage, Alaska, Air Force One is now wheels up & headed to China.
Photo credit: Emily Goodin / White House Press Pool. Air Force One makes a refueling stop in Anchorage, Alaska on May 12th, 2026.
Initially, President Donald Trump’s state visit to Beijing — already once postponed due to the ongoing war in Iran — was primarily intended to focus on trade relations between the two economic superpowers.
That still is Trump’s intent, as evidenced by leading U.S. business CEOs, including Elon Musk (X), Jensen Huang (NVIDIA), Tim Cook (Apple), Larry Fink (BlackRock), Kelly Ortberg (Boeing), Brian Sikes (Cargill), Larry Culp (General Electric), David Solomon (Goldman Sachs), and Cristiano Amon (Qualcomm), accompanying him on Air Force One.
However, Iran is trying to throw Trump a curveball in Beijing & is actively seeking to hijack his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Let’s get started exploring how & why Tehran is making a power move against Team Trump in Beijing.
***
ARAGHCHI’S PREEMPTIVE STRIKE
Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Beijing for talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Abbas’ power play was clearly a preemptive strike against Trump’s upcoming talks with Xi.
Photo credit: Cai Yang / Xinhua News Agency. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi shake hands in Beijing on May 6th, 2026.
It was Araghchi’s first visit to China since the U.S.-Israel war against Iran started on February 28th. Ostensibly, China & Iran are Axis of Evil partners & Araghchi was doing his level best to remind Wang Yi of just that.
After the meeting was over, Iran’s foreign ministry attempted to spin it as a bilateral diplomatic success. Tehran announced that, “Iran, just as it demonstrated strength in defending itself and remains fully prepared to confront any aggression, is also serious and steadfast in the field of diplomacy.”
China, however, was muted in its response. Likely mindful of Trump’s state visit, the Chinese foreign ministry rather blandly stated that “the current regional situation is at a critical juncture of transition from war to peace.”
However, instead of taking Tehran’s bait, Beijing, did as it always does, it hedged its bets. It encouraged all parties, including Iran, “to promptly restore “normal and safe passage” through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Araghchi — as I also pointed out multiple times on-air over the weekend — learned a hard lesson. Superpowers tend to view conflicts on several levels — on a bilateral country-to-country basis, on a regional one, and on a global scale.
Beijing — at least for now — is likely focused on geopolitics. Certainly, ending the war in Iran is a critical economic issue for China, especially given that 15% to 20% of its oil imports come from Tehran.
However, Xi is also driven by domestic calculus to tamp down trade disputes with the U.S. given Beijing’s reliance on exports to keep fueling its economic growth year-over-year. Nonetheless, Iran had another card to play.
***
IRAN EMBRACES CHINA’S FOUR-POINT PLAN
On May 11th, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, Iran’s ambassador to China, wrote on his own X account that, “The Islamic Republic of Iran has announced its readiness to support the Chinese President’s proposed four-point plan, aimed at establishing sustainable security and common development in the Persian Gulf region.”
Photo credit: Mehrs News Agency. An undated photograph of Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, the Iranian ambassador to China.
Notably, nearly a month passed prior to Iran embracing China’s four-point peace plan which was first proposed by Xi on April 14th, 2026.
That begs the question why?
The answer is obvious enough. Iran is desperately trying to change the focus of Trump and Xi’s summit this week to that of ending the war in the Middle East.
Broadly, Xi’s plan called for the following:
Peaceful coexistence focused on improving relations and building a common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable security architecture.
National sovereignty that fully respects the sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity of all countries, including safeguarding personnel, facilities, and institutions.
International rule of law, including upholding the United Nations-centered system and UN Charter Principles.
Coordination of development and security, including creating a favorable environment for regional development and security.
Equally notably — in light of Iran’s repeated attacks on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) — is that Xi made the proposal while meeting with Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Beijing. Sheikh Khaled is the Crown Prince of the UAE.
Photo credit: Xinhua / Huang Jingwen. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (left), the Crown Prince of the UAE, meeting with Xi at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on April 14th, 2026.
However, Fazli’s power move — clearly intended to undermine Trump’s visit to China — was laughable because of what happened five days beforehand.
***
IRAN BOMBS THE UAE
On May 6th — just one week before Iran claims it saw the light on Beijing’s four-point peace proposal proffered by Xi — Tehran launched a ballistic missile and drone attack against the UAE. In all, 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles and multiple drones struck Iran’s Persian Gulf neighbor.
While most were intercepted by UAE defenses, an oil refinery in Fujairah was hit and set ablaze by the attack.
By any reasonable definition, Iran isn’t ready to play by Beijing’s rules either locally, regionally or globally. The Islamic Republic of Iran remains at its core a rogue state — and its regime goals are the polar opposite of global security.
***
IRAN UPS THE ANTE BEFORE TRUMP’S CHINA TRIP
One day later — on May 7th — Iran, according to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), attacked three U.S. Navy ships operating in and around the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the U.S. struck Iranian military targets.
On May 8th, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “They [Iranians] threaten Americans, they are going to be blown up.”
Araghchi got the framing Iran was looking for — especially ahead of Trump’s state visit to Beijing. On X, he posted that, “Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the U.S. opts for a reckless military adventure.”
It might have worked — well, not really! — had Iran not conducted its own ‘reckless military adventure’ the day before in the UAE.
Tehran’s move was obvious. Its leadership, including Ahmad Vahidi, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, and Saeed Jalili, the leader of Iran’s Stability Front faction in parliament, all wanted to hijack Trump’s summit with Xi.
***
IRAN LIKELY WILL NOT BE QUIET
I typically refrain from making predictions. One, because I readily admit that I do not own or possess a crystal ball. Two, because in general, I think doing so is unfair to readers & viewers because of its speculative nature.
Instead, I prefer to offer directional insight based on my analyses and then point out I may be right or I may be wrong.
In that regard, I do not expect Iran to be quiet during Trump’s state visit to China. Somehow, some way, Tehran will act to put the global spotlight back on itself in the Strait of Hormuz. To that end, we had an indication of that today.
Iran significantly expanded its ownership claim of the Strait of Hormuz, claiming the additional territory as being under its military and strategic control. Effectively, Tehran’s announcement increased a narrow 20-to-30-mile claim into a large 300-mile crescent-shaped zone or roughly ten times larger than on February 28th.
Undoubtedly, Tehran is trying to force Trump’s hand even while he is en route to China. I suspect, but can’t know, that Trump will wait to react until his summit with Xi is over — unless, of course, Trump decides he needs a new card to play as leverage in Beijing as the two sides attempt to strike trade deals & more.
Stay tuned!
***
POSTSCRIPT
While some of our INTREP360 readers speak and understand Arabic, I recognize many of you do not.
The reason I include these interviews below is because they serve a very useful purpose in gleaning information from fellow guest panelists. Often, I am on panels with former generals, ambassadors & experts from around the world — and what is said in the virtual green rooms is not always the same as what they say publicly.
E.g., several times, I have gone up against Sergei Markov, who once was a spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
My intent is to share with you what I learn from those encounters.
***
ICYMI #1
Yesterday, I appeared on Alghad TV in Cairo, Egypt on a panel discussion to disclose the global economic impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
While there was consensus on the panel that Beijing is unlikely to achieve any negotiating breakthrough between the U.S. in Iran, once again, I was forced at the end of the segment to push back on the widespread belief in the Middle East that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahi is calling the shots in the White House.
You can watch it here.
***
ICYMI #2
I also appeared on Al Qahera News yesterday in Cairo, Egypt. I discussed whether or not China would — or could — play a factor in resolving the negotiating differences between Washington and Tehran.
You can watch it here.
***
ICYMI #3
On Sunday, I appeared on TVP World to discuss the latest on the peace talks between the U.S. and Iran — and the role China is attempting to play.
I also talked briefly on the importance of NATO and reiterated — yet again — the importance of cooler heads prevailing in Washington, D.C. & Brussels.
You can watch it here.
***
ICYMI #4
On Sunday, Mark also appeared on Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt in a panel discussion to discuss Iran’s response to Trump’s 30-day Memorandum of Understanding offer. I assessed that it would be dead on arrival at the White House.
No sooner than I was off the air, Trump rejected it.
You can watch it here.
***
Thank you for reading. I will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. I truly appreciate it!
Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
Very good points on all interviews
Cheers sir.
Mark