INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
07.07.2026: TRUMP AND VAHIDI ARE IN A BATTLE OF WILLS
July 7th, 2026
Greetings!
It was another hot day, literally and figuratively, in the Persian Gulf. The temperature reached 102° F (39° C) on Qeshm Island, Iran.
It got a lot hotter this afternoon as U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that it was conducting new retaliatory strikes against Iran “to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway.”
Earlier today, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked three merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Photo credit: Composite of the White House and IRGC. President Donald Trump (left) and Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi.
Now, as we begin to pen today’s edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report, CENTCOM just announced it had completed “a new round of offensive strikes against Iran.” Its statement said the U.S. hit “over 80 targets [in Iran] with precision munitions.”
U.S. targets included “air defense systems, command and control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities, and more than 60 [IRGC] small boats in and near the strait.” Its purpose was “to degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking international commerce flowing through the international trade corridor.”
Essentially what we are seeing here is a battle of wills between President Donald Trump and Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, the commander of the IRGC.
Let’s get started examining it and what it is going to take for the U.S. to win.
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IRAN SAW THREE SHIPS COMING SAILING IN
The IRGC sent President Donald Trump a message today just as he was leaving to attend the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. The IRGC fired on three commercial ships while passing through “Oman’s territorial waters near the Strait of Hormuz.”
Photo credit: AA. President Donald Trump (left) shakes the hand of Turkish President Recep Erdoğan on July 7th during their meeting in Ankara, Turkey at the NATO summit.
CNN reported that one of the ships hit was “the Qatari-flagged vessel al-Rakiyat, a liquefied natural gas tanker.” Later, Saudi Arabia confirmed that one of its ships, the crude oil tanker Wedyan, was hit as well. The third ship as we write this has yet to be identified. It was able to continue sailing.
Clearly, the IRGC’s targeting of the three ships was intended to upstage Trump during the NATO meetings. Since the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the U.S. and Iran on June 17th, Tehran has been attempting to interpret it as giving Iran full control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Today’s Iranian strikes were a loud reminder of what the IRGC is now describing as a red line for Iran: post-war control of the international waterway. Never mind, of course, that Iran attacked the three ships while sailing in Omani waters.
In that regard, Iran’s message was not just limited to Trump. It was also intended as a kinetic message to the Gulf States: you are either with us, or against us.
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THE U.S. WAVES GOODBYE TO IRANIAN OIL WAIVERS
Soon after the IRGC attacked the three commercial vessels, the U.S. began the process of voiding Iranian oil sanction waivers that it had issued after the signing of the MoU. Fox News reported that a U.S. official said, “As President Trump and the administration have repeatedly affirmed, the MOU in effect with Iran is entirely performance-based. Iran will only reap benefits if they exhibit good behavior.”
Those Iranian oil waivers were issued by the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control on June 22nd. By late today, they were revoked with a wind-down period of previously authorized transactions until July 17th.
Essentially, Iran got 15 days of relief. Perhaps Tehran did not expect it; however, in our view, Vahidi did. This is not about money to him. This is about militant Iranian ideology and his intent to emerge from Trump’s war as its victor.
Iran may be saying it needs the money. It certainly does. Its economy is in shambles. However, clearly, Vahidi is saying he and the IRGC do not. They are gambling on winning it all and believe the pressures of the November midterms on Trump and the Republican Party are their path to absolute victory.
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CENTCOM HITS BACK
Unlike earlier U.S. strikes since the MoU was signed, CENTCOM hit a much larger target set tonight as we detailed above. Yet, in our view, it still feels performative in nature, and as such, it is not likely to succeed in changing Iran’s behavior or negotiating positions during the remainder of the MoU.
It also begs the question why Iran’s key naval facilities in Bandar Abbas were not completely flattened. It serves as Iran’s southern naval headquarters and its strategically located on the Strait of Hormuz.
By piecemealing attacks on the key base that houses both the Iranian Navy and, more importantly, the IRGC Navy, the U.S. is, in effect, enabling Iran to continue to project force into the Strait of Hormuz and control it.
Tonight’s expanded target list is welcome. However, far more is needed. Doing so will not change Vahidi’s mind; but it would diminish his ability to play the Strait of Hormuz as negotiating leverage against Trump.
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IRAN (YET AGAIN!) TARGETS BAHRAIN & KUWAIT
Predictably, the IRGC hit back at Bahrain and Kuwait late tonight. Earlier, according to the Associated Press, Tehran told Washington that it would “take whatever measures it deems necessary.” Bahrain is the HQ of the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet. Kuwait houses a large contingent of U.S. Army forces.
It was not clear if the Iranian drones targeting the two countries succeeded in hitting U.S. military forces or installations. There is also a report that the IRGC is claiming that it “shot down 2 MQ-9 Reaper drones over Isfahan and Bushehr.
Time will tell.
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WE DON’T FOLD
Late this evening, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, and the lead MoU negotiator, said on X in response to the U.S. strikes in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island as well as the suspension of Iranian oil waivers, that “The era of bullying and extortion are over. It leads nowhere. We don’t fold.”
Ghalibaf accused the U.S. of violating the MoU. Of course, he omitted any mention that Iran violated it earlier today by attacking three merchant ships operating in international and Omani waters.
You just cannot take this IRGC regime seriously. They are playing a very different long game, and it is not one of peace.
They are just tapping Trump out.
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DAY 20
Today is day 20 of the 60-day negotiating period prescribed the MoU. It is crystal clear to us that the U.S. and Iran are no closer to reaching a final settlement than they were on day one. Plus, talks on Iran’s nuclear weapons program have not even begun.
Instead, Iran is pushing its red lines whether it be Hezbollah in Lebanon or repeatedly attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Just as we close this out, i24, an Israeli news service, is reporting that the “IRGC says it struck 85 military targets in Bahrain and Kuwait.” We doubt it, but it goes to show that Vahidi is playing a game of one-upmanship.
In the 1960s and 1970s, the phrase ‘Give peace a chance was popular.’ Fair enough. But Vahidi, repeatedly, is saying, ‘Give war a chance.’
Trump needs to understand that. This is war. One side has to win, and the other side has to lose. It is time — and yes, we get tired of having to say this — to let Adm. Brad Cooper and the U.S. military finish the job in Iran.
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CRYPTIC REFERENCE EXPLAINED
In an earlier INTREP360 Intelligence Report, we indicated that we thought we knew what Ukraine was up to and when it would happen. However, since we are not in the business of helping the Russians, we simply placed a marker and noted “220.”
As it turned out, it did not happen. We both thought that Ukraine — channeling the spirit of the Israelis on July 4th, 1976 — would drop the Kerch bridge connecting Crimea to the Russian mainland on July 4th.
Photo credit: IDF Spokesman. Commandos from Sayeret Matkal with the Mercedes they used to deceive the Ugandans.
“220” referenced the model number of the Mercedes limousine that the Israeli commandos used to make it look like Idi Amin, the Ugandan dictator, had landed to visit the Jewish hostages and Air France Crew being held by PLO terrorists.
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ICYMI #1
Yesterday, in our regular weekday foreign affairs column at The Washington Star, we detailed Ukraine’s ongoing campaign to turn the lights out in Crimea. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are continuing their efforts to render the Russian occupied peninsula untenable for Vladimir Putin’s military forces.
Photo credit: Ukrainian State Emergency Service. Kyiv faces yet another Russian attack on July 6th, 2026.
You can read it here. It is not paywalled at our request.
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ICYMI #2
On Monday, Mark appeared on Al Qahera News TV in Cairo, Egypt. He argued that Hezbollah and Iran are the major challenges facing any lasting peace deal in Lebanon. Either Iran’s IRGC-sponsored terrorist group gets disarmed, or Israel will not withdraw IDF forces from southern Lebanon.
Notably, a fellow guest panelist in Beirut said the same thing. She pointed out that “Hezbollah is serving Iran’s interests, not Lebanon’s.”
Interesting side note: While Mark was waiting in the virtual green room, he could overhear the segment before his. Sergei Markov, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s former spokesman, was debating a Ukrainian commentator.
Mark has gone up against Markov twice on Q News. The second time Markov stormed off as Mark pummeled Putin and accused him of war crimes.
Of note here, Markov sounded panicked and the Ukrainian guest confident of Ukraine’s growing advantage in the war. We are including the full episode so you can watch the exchange between the two men.
You can watch a clip of it here or the full segment here. The episode is in Arabic.
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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
Trump is less and less able to manage the situation with the Iranian theocracy: this will only worsen the conflict. Showing weakness boosts the warlike acts committed by tyrants. As for the Ukrainian version of operation '220', the UKrainians do not even need to blow up the Kerch bridge to make life in Crimea untenable.