INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
06.29.2026: IS VLADIMIR PUTIN RUNNING ON FUMES?
June 29th, 2026
Greetings!
Russia, as a nation, is beginning to run on fumes courtesy of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) — especially at the hands of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces. Their sustained deep strikes on Russian oil and energy facilities are creating long lines for the denizens of Moscow and St. Petersburg at gas stations.
AI image credit: Grok. Fictional image depicting Russian President Vladimir Putin hitchhiking outside of the walls of the Kremlin.
Fights are breaking out. X, Bluesky, Telegram, and other social media are full of Russian civilians berating one anotherand throwing punches at each other.
Finally, Russian President Vladimir Putin was forced to break his silence and admit Russia has a gasoline and diesel fuel problem. In what was described as a long and “rambling speech,” he said, “You are well aware that problems for drivers and for business exist.” He then added that, “Unfortunately, there are still queues at petrol stations.”
He then proceeded to blame the gasoline shortage problem on Ukrainian “terrorist attacks on our territory and infrastructure facilities.”
Really?
Putin seems to forget that he is the one who invaded Ukraine. Let’s be candid. He is the only terrorist in this war.
His armies have intentionally targeted civilians, wounding and killing them in the process. Putin has repeatedly weaponized winter during the course of his four-plus-year old ‘special military operation’ in an attempt to freeze Ukraine into capitulating.
The Kremlin has also weaponized Ukraine’s ecology and environment, including shelling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Perhaps most egregiously in this regard, Moscow caused catastrophic destruction by destroying the Nova Kakhovka Dam on the river Dnipro in 2023 which inundated the Kherson region 45 miles to the west.
Yet, like much of Putin’s war, destroying the dam proved self-defeating. It temporarily created a natural barrier preventing Russian forces in the south and in Crimea from being able to threaten Kherson and Odesa to the West.
Physically, the Russians are running low on gas. Symbolically, its military is out of gas in Ukraine. And intellectually, at least from a military perspective, its leaders, including Putin, are out of gas when it comes to being wartime leaders.
Let’s get started understanding why.
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RUSSIA IS A GAS STATION
The late Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) understood something Putin could not understand at best or did not want to admit at worst. In 2014, after Russian forces invaded the Donbas for the first time and seized the Crimean peninsula, McCain characterized Russia as “a gas station masquerading as a country.”
Photo credit: Unknown and undated photo of the late Sen. John McCain; Grok added the McCain quote from his 2008 presidential debate with the then Sen. Barack.
He added that, “I have no illusions or worry about the long-term future of Russia.” By that, McCain was referring to the Russian economy and its ability to keep up with the West and the level of U.S. defense spending.
McCain also correctly foresaw that Putin eventually would invade Ukraine again. The only thing stopping the Russian dictator? The late Arizona senator said it was because “Vladimir Putin is figuring out the cost-benefit ratio to moving into Ukraine.”
Putin thought he had figured that ratio out on February 24th, 2022. Ever since, the AFU has been proving his calculations wrong.
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PUTIN WHINGES THAT RUSSIA IS NOT A GAS STATION
Putin was not pleased. While there is no record that we can find of the Russian president directly countering McCain, he has been obsessed about the late Arizona’s gas station characterization of Russia ever since.
In September 2020, Putin conducted an online open school lesson with Russian students across the country during the height of the Covid pandemic. During his comments, he touted advanced Russian technologies and said they were why the country was able to confront the crisis and keep functioning.
Then, in what might have otherwise appeared as a throwaway line, he said that the country’s technological prowess“suggests that [Russia is] still not a ‘gas station country,’ as some are trying to present us.” Clearly, McCain’s zinger from six-plus years earlier was taking up space in Putin’s brain.
Ten months later, Putin addressed it again during the 24th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. During a video conference with international journalists, he repeated his assertion that “Russia is not a gas station.” He added that, “Russia is a country with a high level of science and education.”
Maybe so. However, thus far, Russia’s collective brain trust has been woefully lacking on the battlefields of Ukraine, and it has failed to stop the AFU’s sustained precision deep strikes using drones as well as ballistic and cruise missiles on Russia’s oil and energy installations, logistics, and railways.
Then yet again, later that year, perhaps thinking the third time would be the charm, Putin repeated his assertion. He said, referring to mining, that “only two percent, I want to emphasize, only two percent fell on mining. Now let someone say that Russia is a gas station, as they tried to talk about it recently.”
Recently?
Really?
McCain died on August 25th, 2018. He made his gas station comment in 2014 or nine years before Putin characterized it as “recently.” McCain’s knife, symbolically speaking, was still twisting inside the Russian president’s head.
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UKRAINE IS PROVING RUSSIA IS A GAS STATION
Putin may like to tout that Russia is not a gas station, but it is Ukrainian attacks on that sector of his economy that risks bringing the country to its knees at home and on the battlefields of occupied Ukraine.
The AFU, using long-range drones and missiles, has systematically targeted Russian “oil refineries, terminals, pipelines, and land and railway supply routes.” Since March of this year, more than two dozen refineries alone have been hit. Those hits have included eight of Russia’s ten largest refineries.
The impact has been significant. Between 20% and 25% of Russia’s total refining capacity has been destroyed or disrupted. This has resulted in an estimated 15% domestic fuel supply shortfall, and it is only getting worse.
These levels of fuel shortages if left unchecked will begin to have a compounding effect on the Russian economy and by extension Putin’s war effort in Ukraine. Putin may claim that these shortages are “not critical,” but that is anything but the case.
Russian armies roll on petrol and rely heavily on diesel. Russia’s economic and war logistics run in part on diesel railway engines.
Think it does not matter?
There is even one video circulating online that shows a steam locomotive and has prompted claims that Moscow is resorting to steam-powered trains amid the growing diesel shortage. To be clear, we cannot determine to what extent, if at all, the Kremlin is resorting to steam engines.
Nonetheless, if the AFU keeps destroying or incapacitating Russia’s oil and energy infrastructure, Moscow may need to.
Got coal anyone?
***
GAS RATIONING IN RUSSIA
Julia Parnis, reporting for Radio Free Europe, assesses that “more than half of Russia’s 83 regions are struggling with gasoline shortages, due overwhelmingly to Ukraine drone strikes.” She also noted that “As of June 24, at least 55 of Russia’s 83 federal entities — regions, republics, krais, oblasts, and so-called federally-designated cities — were reporting either mandatory, government restrictions on gasoline and diesel sales, or restrictions imposed by private companies operating fuel stations.”
Graphic credit: Mike Eckel, Julia Parnis, RFE/RL Graphics. Map showing gasoline shortages in Russia.
As we noted at The Hill in Washington, D.C. last Thursday, the gas shortage situation is even more dire in Crimea, and it is rapidly getting worse. Putin is beginning to encounter the classic ‘I must pay the rent, but I can’t pay the rent’ catch-22.
Only instead of rent money, it is gas that is coming up short. Moreover, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals are acutely aware of their growing advantage in this regard, and they are going to keep exploiting it.
As we noted in The Washington Star, Russia is facing 40 dark days and nights after Zelensky authorized the Security Service of Ukraine last Thursday to launch a kinetic 40-day pressure campaign against Putin.
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POSTSCRIPT
There are, perhaps, many Russian soldiers who welcome the growing fuel shortage throughout Russia, especially if the reporting in Foreign Policy is true.
The publication, citing Russian military bloggers, claimed that Putin’s soldiers by the time they reach training grounds only have 10 to 21 days to live before they die on the battlefields of Russian-occupied Ukraine. Chillingly, the study claims that once Russian soldiers reach the frontlines, their life expectancy is as little as 20 minutes.
We do not know if this is accurate, but we do know that as of today, according to Ukraine, 1,403,550 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded so far. Fuel shortages in Russia may be the only way their lives are saved, or a few more minutes added onto their battlefield life expectancy once they get there.
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ICYMI #1
Earlier today, in our regular weekday foreign affairs column at The Washington Star, we warned the White House that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has no intention of honoring the MOU or any permanent peace deal Iran may sign with the U.S.
Photo credit: Fars News Agency. The IRGC Navy seizes a ship in 2019 in the Persian Gulf.
More succinctly, as Jon put it for us, “It’s the IRGC, stupid!”
You can read it here. It is not paywalled at our request.
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ICYMI #2
Mark appeared on TVP World last Friday evening. Our good friend Ashim Kumur hosted the segment.
They discussed how the IRGC holds the real power in Iran. Mark also argued that we are seeing two distinct ways of the Trump Administration’s approach to Tehran at play here. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is trying to box Iran out of Lebanon while Vice President JD Vance is extending a hand of friendship to the IRGC.
Spoiler: We strongly prefer Rubio’s plan of action against the Iranian regime. In fact, in our opinion, Vance’s approach should be a non-starter.
You can watch it here. The segment is in English.
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ICYMI #3
On Saturday, Mark appeared on Al Qahera News TV. He discussed the new trilateral peace framework signed on Friday by Israel, Lebanon, and the U.S. The fellow guest panelist was from Beirut and essentially took Hezbollah’s side.
Mark pushed back hard asking what sovereign country would allow an armed militia acting at the behest of Iran to operate inside of its borders. He then pointed out that Egypt would not, the U.S. would not, and that Lebanon should not.
You can watch a clip of it here. The segment is in Arabic.
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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.