INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
04.18.2026
April 18th, 2026
Greetings!
Yesterday, we examined the U.S.-Iran ceasefire from a perspective of questioning whether Team Trump is playing Tehran.
Today — largely due to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s decision to fire on the Indian oil tanker attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz — we decided to pen this special Saturday edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report to do a reverse angle analysis & consider whether Team Iran is playing President Donald Trump.
Screenshot credit: Explosive Media. Explosive Media, purportedly run by an Iranian student in Tehran, lampooning President Donald Trump using LEGO AI-generated imagery.
Let’s get started!
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ART OF HUMILIATION
The Iranian regime — or what’s left of it — in this scenario is likely down to a strategy of attempting to humiliate Trump & the U.S. to ensure regime survival. Instead of capitulating to Trump’s Art of the Deal — and maximum pressure — Tehran is asymmetrically fighting back & doing so in a social media war against the White House.
The Iranian tactic is simple. It is designed to play to Trump’s Achilles’ Heel — his ego — as a scheme to buy time & negotiating leverage.
How?
By allowing Trump to believe he is negotiating with decision-makers — including Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Foreign Minister, and to a lesser extent Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian — and that they can sign, seal & deliver a peace deal.
Their job?
Make agreements — tell Trump everything he wants to hear — and wait for the President to make announcements on Truth Social or on Air Force One asserting how he has forced Iran to agree to his demands & that the war will soon be over.
Then they lower the boom by pulling the rug out from under him. Ghalibaf or Abbas — or some unnamed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) official — claims that the regime has made no such agreements.
Often, this Iranian tactic, creates or compounds a lack of global & domestic confidence in the Trump Administration, while at the same time dividing support on Capitol Hill. Plus, as a bonus — at least from the Axis of Evil perspective — it alienates Washington from its NATO & Gulf State allies, all while buying time for the Iranian regime’s survival.
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LEGO WARS
Iran — if we are objective as national security analysts — is also playing a clever social media war aimed at younger Americans & the anti-war wings of Republicans, Democrats & Libertarians alike.
We’ve long warned of highly sophisticated Russian & Chinese disinformation campaigns — especially the use of leading-edge cartoons on social media across the Sahel glorifying Moscow’s paramilitary companies — to undermine western democracies by sowing domestic discord, doubt & divide.
Here’s one graphic example. A Russian video — in this case a cartoon touting the late Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group — quickly spread on social media across Africa, accumulating over 14 million views.
Chart Credit: Code4Africa.
We watched a similar Russian campaign play out in real time after spending half a day on a conference Zoom with Constella Intelligence back in March 2023. A video that originated near Moscow, quickly spread on Facebook & then was amplified by bot farms and paid Russian trolls in Kenya.
Now, Iran — on a far more sophisticated level — is waging the same kind of disinformation war globally & in the U.S. Yet, instead of cartoons, they are using artificial intelligence to animate LEGO videos.
Their purpose?
Spread Iranian disinformation, alienate the U.S. and Israel on the global stage — especially in the developing world & among Axis of Evil allies — and to humiliate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu & Trump.
Here’s an example. This one video — released on April 2nd — has nearly 1.1 million views. In it, it portrays Netanyahu & Trump as worshippers of Baal & pits Iran’s fight against Israel & the U.S. as a virtuous cause.
We are in the midst of — if you think about it — the U.S.’ first real large-scale war in the social media age. Our enemies — and in this case, it’s the Islamic Republic of Iran — are weaponizing social media to undermine domestic U.S. support for the war.
Yielding this space to Iran — no matter how domestically useful on a partisan political basis — is unwise & unfair to nearly 60,000 U.S. soldiers now serving in harm’s way. Giving Iran this kind of win only prolongs the war.
Especially since the man known as Mr. Explosive — purportedly a university student in Tehran — admitted to the BBC that the Iranian government is paying him to produce his LEGO propaganda videos.
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CAPITOL HILL WARS
Make no mistake, the Iranian regime is using its LEGO wars against the U.S. to help fight other wars on Capitol Hill.
Iran is almost certainly aware of the “automatic termination of the use of U.S. forces engaged in hostilities 60 days after the President has reported (or was required to report) on the use of force” provision contained in the War Powers Resolution and likely believes this to be its lifeline. That day is on or about April 28th.
It’s easier for XYZ U.S. Representative to vote no if their constituents — be they left, right or centrists — are falling for Iranian propaganda & hyping Mr. Explosive’s latest LEGO videos as ‘must see’ TV.
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IS TRUMP FALLING FOR IRAN’S SHELL GAME?
Trump proclaimed yesterday that the Islamic Republic of Iran had “accepted everything” the White House demanded. And that “Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. It will no longer be used as a weapon against the World!”
The President even went as far as to say he could trust the Iranians, telling ABC News chief Washington correspondent Jonathan Karl that, “I think they’ve had it. I think they’ve had enough.”
Only they have not had enough.
Yesterday, Ghalibaf said that “Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz again amid the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports.”
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STRAIT OF HORMUZ UNDER FIRE
As quickly as Trump declared victory, the IRGC, led by Ahmad Vahidi — the de facto military leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran — was denying any agreements had been made regarding enriched uranium, control of the Strait of Hormuz, or funding of Iran’s Axis of Resistance proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah & the Houthis.
To underscore that point, the IRGC Navy began firing today on maritime travel attempting to navigate the Strait of Hormuz. CNN reported that “Iranian gunboats fired on a tanker transiting the waterway Saturday, and a second vessel has since reported being hit by an “unknown projectile.”
Mohammad Reza Aref, Iran’s First Vice President, stated “the control of the Strait of Hormuz is in our hands, and either they grant us our right at the negotiating table, or we seize it on the battlefield.”
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IRGC EXTORTION
According to Reuters, a senior Iranian official said that “all ships can sail through the Strait of Hormuz, but this needs to be coordinated with [the] IRGC,” and that “unfreezing of [$30 billion of] Iranian funds is part of the agreement.” This is the same IRGC that announced last week that they would charge oil tankers $2 million to cross the Strait of Hormuz.
They repeated the demand today, saying Iran will prioritize vessels that pay to cross the Strait of Hormuz: “Given the limitation on the number of vessels that will be allowed to pass, Iran has decided to give priority to those vessels that respond more quickly to the new Strait of Hormuz protocols and pay the costs of security and safety services.”
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IRAN’S ‘DUST’
The IRGC is also continuing to play games over the 440.9 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium or as Trump incorrectly likes to call it, ‘Dust.’ On Friday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei dismissed Trump’s claim that Tehran has agreed to allow its enriched uranium to be moved to the US.
“Enriched uranium is as sacred to us as Iranian soil and will not be transferred anywhere under any circumstances,” Baghaei was quoted as saying by Tasnim news agency.
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TRUMP IS ON THE CLOCK
Iran has played its hand & it is largely one tightly centered around the art of humiliation. The ball is now back in the President’s court.
According to the Times of India, Iran has reportedly “said no to the U.S. offer for a second round of peace talks,” blaming Trump’s naval blockade of Iranian ports and Washington’s alleged excessive demands in the negotiations held in Islamabad last week. Iran said that “avoiding what it calls excessive demands by the United States in negotiations were a fundamental condition for the talks to continue.”
The IRGC believes they have leverage and time. Influencing transit through the Strait of Hormuz & Trump’s persistent search for an off-ramp has provided that confidence.
Humiliation may be an effective technique in the Middle East, but the second- & third-order effects will likely result in a renewal of U.S. combat operations. Only this time, the end state will likely be the destruction of the IRGC, the Strait of Hormuz under the control of the U.S., and the collapse of the Iranian economy.
Forces are in place & prepared to execute the next phase of U.S. Central Command’s military campaign.
Retired U.S. Army General Jack Keane & former United Nations Ambassador and Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs (NSA) John Bolton have each said, ‘you can’t trust Iran.’ And now through personal experience, Trump can say the same.
The ceasefire ends on April 22nd; just four days from now. Any calls for further negotiations from Iran should go unanswered — unless they are from Vahidi himself — and even so, the response should fall back on Trump’s initial demand of “unconditional surrender.”
The IRGC cannot remain in power, they cannot continue to threaten their Middle East neighbors with ballistic missiles, drones or their proxies, or threaten their own citizens, nor can they exercise control or influence over the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway.
This isn’t a LEGO game or movie. It is real war. Team Trump must finish the task and get back to the business of winning.
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ICYMI!
Jon was on Al Qahera News earlier today in Egypt. He discussed the prospects for escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.
You can watch it here.
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Thank you for reading. We will see you Monday. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.