INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

12.08.2025

Dec 09, 2025

December 8^th, 2025

Greetings! Lots to review today as we pivot back to our regular format after Friday’s edition of the Intelligence Report primarily focused on reviewing President Donald Trump’s new National Security Strategy.

If you missed it, it is archived here.

To no one’s great surprise, Russia welcomed Trump’s new NSS. Why wouldn’t they? It essentially yields to Moscow and Beijing’s multi-polar world and enables Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping to continue their efforts to destroy the post-World War II global order.

Europe, to put it lightly, is insulted by the NSS. Between the strategy and reports that the U.S. intends to wind down elements of our military commitments to NATO by 2027, Europe is alarmed Washington is abdicating leadership.

Congress has a vote though, and the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, as reported by Fox News, was finalized by House and Senate negotiators and released Sunday evening.

Elsewhere, Venezuela continues to heat up as a theater of operations. China is firing lasers at Japanese planes and Thailand has sent troops into Cambodia.

Today’s most underreported story hinges around India.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was in London.

Ukraine has no right to renounce territory — Zelensky comments on US-led peace efforts after talks with European leaders

Photo credit: Adrian Dennis / POOL / AFP via Getty Images. Left to right, Merz, Starmer, Zelensky and Macron.

Let’s get started!

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NORTH AMERICA

Pushback against Trump’s NSS is continuing on Capitol Hill. Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) building off his assertion that “It is 10X more critical of Europe than Russia,” noted on X that the “Kremlin appears to like it that.”

Indeed, they do.

Kirill Dmitriev – Putin’s Kremlin troll and key advisor – was quick to hype his approval of the NSS – particularly the NSS’ warning that Europe faces “the stark prospect of civilizational erasure.” Save, like Putin, he other ideas how to get there. Team Trump fears Europe will fall from within. Russia is hellbent on ensuring it falls from without.

Ukraine is just phase one of that Russian goal.

Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) warned, “If implemented, this plan would weaken U.S. influence across the global and underline our national security.” It would. We face a growing threat from Russia, not a diminishing one.

Pushback against elements of Trump’s national security approach is bipartisan. Congress over the weekend released the latest National Defense Authorization Act. The 3,086 page provides Ukraine with $400 million in 2026 and $400 million in 2027 as part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. While meager and not nearly enough, it is, at least, as Laura Kelly, Filip Timotija, and Sudiksha Kochi note reporting for The Hill, “a symbolic win for Kyiv.”

The $892.6 billion Act also restricts U.S. troop withdrawals from Europe. If signed into law by Trump, a provision “would bar the Department of Defense from dropping the number of U.S. forces deployed or permanently stationed in Europe to under 76,000 for more than 45 days, unless the Pentagon can certify that NATO allies are consulted and the drawdown is in America’s national security interest.”

The legislation also requires the U.S. to retain the position of Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), codifying into statute a role traditionally held by an American general.

It also repeals Syrian sanctions and restricts U.S. investment in China that benefits “development of technologies that can modernize their militaries.”

Notably, the MEGOBARI Act, that would have sanctioned officials in Georgia was omitted after objections by Markwayne Mullin (R-OK). Unfortunately doing so gives Putin a win and undermines protestors in Georgia seeking to topple the pro-Russian government led by President Kavelashvili.

Team Trump is also facing strong headwinds over Ukraine from American voters. According to a poll conducted by the Reagan Foundation, 62% support Ukraine winning its war with Russia and 64% support sending Kyiv U.S. Weapons.

Significantly, 68% of Americans support Trump’s Golden Dome multilayered defense shield to protect the U.S. mainland and territories from the types of drone and ballistic missile attacks Ukraine now endures nearly on a daily basis.

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SOUTH AMERICA

Celso Amorim, the chief foreign policy advisor to Brazilian President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is warning that if the U.S. invades or attacks Venezuela, that it would likely turn into “something similar to Vietnam.” That is not likely.

Meanwhile, Ana Vanessa Herrero, Susannah George, Samantha Schmidt, Marina Dias and Hannah Natanson reporting for the Washington Post, note that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is refusing to go into exile believing that he can “wait out Trump.” They also report that “his inner circle shows no signs of imminent collapse.”

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EUROPE

Zelensky made it clear (again) today that Ukraine will not cede territory to Russia as part of any peace negotiation with Moscow. Meeting in London with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and French President Emmanuel Macron, Zelensky reiterated that ceding territory is not legally possible under Ukraine’s Constitution.

Control of the Donbas remains the stick point. As we have repeatedly warned, Ukraine’s loss of the Donbas – especially its Fortress Belt – would be akin to committing military and national suicide.

Doing so would leave Kyiv and Odesa exposed. Ditto Europe. As Merz warned during the meeting, “the destiny of [Ukraine] is the destiny of Europe.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen afterwards held a meeting of the so-called “Coalition of the Willing.” She asserted that the European Union “has the means and the will to increase pressure on Russia to come to the negotiating table.”

Madame President, with all due respect, enough talk. It is time to transform the “Coalition of the ‘Willing” into the “Coalition of the Doing.” For starters, immediately implement a no-fly zone over Western Ukraine and persuade Germany to provide Ukraine the Taurus missile.

Europe must take note of what Sergey Karaganov, the head of Russia’s Council to Foreign and Defense Policy said on December 5^th while appearing on Russia-1, a Russian state-controlled major media outlet: “We are at war with Europe not with the miserable, pitiful, misled Ukraine.” He then added “I think we need to act much more decisively.”

Moscow is messaging its intentions. Actually, flat out telling us! Europe – indeed, Washington as well – must listen and act with all do haste.

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MIDDLE EAST

Merz visited Israel over the weekend and met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Merz said “lasting peace is possible,” however, to get there that means working toward the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Netanyahu rejected his calls for Palestinian statehood.

Bibi said Israel is getting nearer to reaching stage two of Trump’s 20-Point Peace Plan signed in October in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. To get there, Hamas still must first return the body of Master Sgt. Ran Gvili. Plus, Israel is insisting on U.S. reassurances over the demilitarization of Hamas and its militant allies and how the International Stability Force (ISF) is employed.

However, Khaled Mashaal did not get the memo. On Saturday he stated that Hamas “will not disarm, give up its weapons, rule of the Gaza Strip, or permit external oversight in Gaza, including the ISF.”

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AFRICA

Benin, a small West African country on the Gulf of Guinea situated south of Burkina Faso and wedged between Togo and Nigeria, underwent a military coup on Sunday. Soldiers calling themselves the Military Committee for Refoundation, said on state TV that Lt. Col. Pascal Tigri was the new president.

This comes on the heels of recent coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger – all in West Africa. We have long-warned about the perils of Russia’s efforts – especially its paramilitary forces such as the former Wagner Group – aiding and abetting coups across the Sahel.

While it is not yet clear that Moscow is behind this coup, it does fit the pattern. Defeat Russia in Ukraine, all of this stops.

Plus, it begs the question whether or not the timing of this coup had anything to do with the release of Trump’s new NSS given that it basically, as we noted in our review, took a hands-off approach to Africa. Time will tell.

INDO-PACIFIC

China is presently in a spat with Japan over the country’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi saying Japan’s Self Defense Force could aid Taiwan if attacked by Beijing. On Saturday, it got hotter after Tokyo said that “Chinese military aircraft locked radar on its fighter jets even though there was a safe distance between them.”

Again, this incident begs the question whether or not Trump’s new NSS was interpreted as a green light by Beijing. As Mark argued on Q News in a panel discussion on Saturday with Georgetown Professor Dennis Wilder, the NSS is seismic and a game changer.

Wilder noted that the NSS language regarding China was softer compared to past NSSs and that Beijing likely welcomed it. Frankly, we missed that aspect during our analysis of the NSS. In retrospect, we agree with Wilder’s assessment.

Now, for today’s most underreported story.

Moscow, according to Sergey Chemezov, chief of the Rostec group, is in active discussions to offshore production of its Lancet and Geran drones in India. He stated “that They [India] are very interested in our … [and they] are also ready to produce them. We have talked with them … [about] localizing production in India at Indian enterprises.”

As Jon bluntly noted on X, “India is now part of the problem. Guess whoever authored the National Security Strategy can remove that paragraph.” The NSS envisions New Delhi as a key partner in containing China. That’s not likely to play out as planned given India’s founding role in BRICS and business ties to Moscow.

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WHAT WE ARE READING!

Japan and Australia urge calm after Chinese radar locks on Japanese jets. Mari Yamaguchi, reporting for the Associated Press.

A Frustrated Congress Pushes the Pentagon to Produce Its Boat Strike Orders. Megan Mineiro, reporting for the New York Times.

Despite Trump tariffs, China’s global trade surplus tops $1 trillion. David J. Lynch and Simon Elegant, reporting for the Washington Post.

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