INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
02.20.2026
February 20th, 2026
Greetings! It’s Friday & I am flying solo again. We are gaining a clearer picture of the military options available to President Donald Trump in Iran as well as potential limitations—including use of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean & Royal Air Force Fairford base in the United Kingdom as launching sites.
Photo credit: U.S. Navy. Aerial view of Diego Garcia, a remote island in the Indian Ocean.
Elsewhere, Cuba is near a tipping point, Trump’s Board of Peace held its inaugural meeting, & Beijing may be close to convincing the White House to 86-ing a new arms package for Taiwan ahead of the president’s upcoming visit.
Russia is buzzing. Well, buzzing Alaska, that is, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky makes it crystal clear to Washington & Moscow that Ukraine is not going to gift Russian President Vladimir Putin the remainder of the Donbas.
Let’s get started covering those stories & more as I sweep the globe looking for the top stories impacting U.S. national security.
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NORTH AMERICA
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the bulk of Trump’s unilateral tariffs on a host of nations that he based on—wrongly, as it turned out—on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
Essentially, the IEEPA allows a president—once he or she has declared a national emergency—to freeze trade with a country militarily threatening the national interests of the U.S. Trump argued—incorrectly—that the act gave him broad powers to impose trade tariffs as a routine matter of economic diplomacy.
Critics in Congress—including Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE)—viewed Trump’s non-emergency related tariffs as a tax––and the Constitution, as upheld today by SCOTUS—reminded the White House that power is reserved to Congress under Article I.
Typically, this isn’t an area I’d cover. However, since Trump—in effect—has weaponized trade tariffs to coerce allies & foes alike on matters of U.S. foreign policy & national security, it is a significant setback for the White House.
For example, in late January, Trump threatened to impose new additional tariffs on any country shipping oil to Cuba. Mexico got the message & stopped.
Now, in light of the SCOTUS ruling, Claudia Sheinbaum, the president of Mexico, might attempt to reverse course which would upset Team Trump’s effective blockade of Cuba. If so, Raúl Castro—still, at 94, the de facto ruler of Cuba—may have found a lifeline.
The SCOTUS ruling could also have an immediate adverse impact on Trump’s foreign policy leverage going forward.
For example, earlier this week, Sir Keir Starmer, the prime minister of the U.K., informed Team Trump that the U.S. could not directly use its military bases on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean & RAF Fairford in England.
Yesterday, Trump reacted in rage at Starmer. On Truth Social, the president withdrew his support for Starmer’s deal to cede the Chagos Islands—which includes the strategic U.S. base in Diego Garcia established in 1971—to Mauritius.
Screenshot: Donald J. Trump Truth Social post; dated February 18th, 2026.
While the transfer agreement has been signed between Downing Street & Port Louis, it is still pending approval by the British Parliament. If approved, the U.S. & U.K. will still control Diego Garcia for 100 years under a lease costing $100 million per year.
Pre-SCOTUS ruling, Trump might have reacted by imposing new tariffs on the U.K. which had become his preferred negotiating tactic. However, now that option is precluded from him—at least in terms of the IEEPA.
Trump can still declare tariffs. By invoking section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Or by declaring a national emergency—as he did often during his first term. However, those are temporary in nature & duration. They also require—by law—that the White House undertakes an in-depth study proving their necessity & report to Congress every six months.
Indeed, while I was writing this section, I received a White House Press Release stating that he was imposing a new 10% across-the-board section 122 tariff. It will be in effect for 150 days beginning February 24th.
Screenshot: White House Press Release; dated February 20th, 2026.
Trump still has leverage. Just not as much. How that impacts Starmer’s decision to prohibit the use of Diego Garcia & RAF Fairford to strike Iran remains to be seen. Notably, King Charles III is reportedly scheduled to visit the U.S. in April.
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Yesterday, the Board of Peace held its inaugural meeting in Washington. More than 40 countries attended.
Photo credit: Saul Loeb / AFP. Global Leaders gather with Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Vice President JD Vance, President Donald Trump, & Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Institute for Peace on February 19th, 2026.
The group pledged $7 billion to rebuild Gaza to go along with the $10 billion Team Trump has committed from the U.S.
Two problems. One, Hamas still remains armed. Two, Israel has issued an ultimatum to Hamas either to disarm within 60 days or Israel will resume all-out war to forcefully disarm the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-backed group.
Tehran—as well—may yet throw a curve. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has implied he will unleash Hamas & Hezbollah on Israeli & U.S. military forces if Trump authorizes strikes on Iran.
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Yesterday, U.S. fighter jets operating under the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) intercepted 5 Russian planes that had entered the ADIZ area near Alaska. Two nuclear-capable Tu-95 bombers, two Su-35 fighter jets & one A-50 surveillance craft were escorted until they left the zone.
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CARIBBEAN
Cuba is hurting. Officially, the White House isn’t calling it a blockade. But—in effect—it is a devastating one & it is quickly destabilizing the government of Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel as food, electricity & gasoline shortages grip the island.
Last week, Volker Türk, the United Nations human rights chief, issued a statement through his spokesperson—Marta Hurtado—declaring that “[Trump’s] policy goals cannot justify actions that in themselves violate human rights.” His criticism is likely to be ignored by the White House.
As it is, the U.S. still owes nearly $4 billion for U.N. annual membership dues related to 2025 & 2026 and Washington’s share of U.N. peacekeeping operations. Earlier this month, U.N. Secretary General António Guterres warned that the U.N. is expected to run out of operating funds by the end of June.
The U.S. did make a small payment of $160 million. Team Trump has been withholding the funds over disagreements with various U.N. agencies including the World Health Organization & UNESCO.
Elsewhere, in Moscow, Putin met with Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez. The Russian president called the U.S. blockade “unacceptable.”
Tough talk. Yet Russia is powerless to act. Meanwhile, 11 million people in Cuba remain in economic limbo.
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EUROPE
During an interview with Kyodo News—a Japanese news agency based in Minato, Tokyo—Zelensky made it crystal clear that Ukraine will not withdraw from the remaining sections of the Donbas that its military controls as part of any peace deal with Putin. As Jon Sweet & I noted yesterday at The Hill, Kyiv has made it clear that it is a negotiating floor.
Team Trump—if it truly wants to reach a peace deal—must take heed of that. Ukraine is not going to come off of it as they view doing so as an existential threat.
As Zelensky said in the interview, “We can’t withdraw from our territory. It’s our real defending line.” Ukraine—whether Washington wants to hear it or not—is done listening to ultimatums issued by either Trump or Putin.
Elsewhere in Europe, the European Union still can’t get its act together when it comes to meeting the economic & military needs of Ukraine. You can blame Hungary’s Viktor Orbán for this latest debacle.
Today—just four days before the fourth anniversary of the start of Putin’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine, Hungary announced that Orbán will act to block the EU’s $107 million loan to Ukraine unless & until Zelensky first allows Russian oil imports via the Druzhba pipeline to resume.
Imagine a NATO-member holding Ukraine hostage so it can purchase cheap oil from Putin. On second thought, you do not need to. Hungary did just that.
Earlier this month, Orbán declared that Ukraine was the “enemy.” That’s certainly an interesting take for a NATO state. Especially since NATO was founded, in part, to confront Russian military aggression westward.
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MIDDLE EAST
We are definitely in the zone of strategic ambiguity. Between Trump & his national security team, every potential scenario when it comes to Iran has now been disclosed. Everything from a peace deal to limited strikes to an attack that the New York Times claims “could be deadlier than the first.”
Regardless, what is now clear is that this is the largest buildup of U.S. military in the Middle East in two plus decades. Plus, the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group is now reported to have passed the Strait of Gibraltar & is cruising in the Mediterranean toward Israel.
Photo credit: The War Zone. The USS Gerald R. Ford transiting the Strait of Gibraltar; February 2026.
Succinctly put, the U.S. military is locked & loaded. The zero hour is nearing. Despite talk of compromise—for instance, token Iranian uranium enrichment—you likely don’t commit this much firepower only not to use it unless Iran completely capitulates.
Time will tell.
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INDO-PACIFIC
Many in Washington fear that a U.S. military aid package to Taiwan is in jeopardy due to Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing in April.
For now, the White House is deflecting questions.
Stay tuned.
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Thank you for reading! I will see you on Monday. Please subscribe, comment and share. I truly appreciate it!
Mark
Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.