INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
04.08.2026
April 8th, 2026
Greetings!
Less than 24 hours after President Donald Trump announced on his Truth Social account that the “Islamic Republic of Iran agree[d] to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz,” Iran has halted oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after Israel attacked Lebanon.
Image credit: Consulate General of the I.R. Iran in Mumbai, India. Iranian Navy map directing oil tanker traffic to avoid mines, dated April 8th, 2026.
Earlier today, the Iranian navy reportedly warned foreign ships that they will be “destroyed” if they attempt to cross the Strait of Hormuz without permission from Tehran.
The move is predicated on the second condition of Iran’s 10-point counter-proposal to the U.S: “The complete cessation of the war on regional allies [their proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi rebels and Shi’a militias], specifically mentioning Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.”
Iran is pulling another page from the Russian handbook on negotiations. They are lobbying the U.S. to leverage its adversary to get what they cannot achieve on the battlefield in exchange for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
During U.S. negotiations with Russia over Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin employed Kirill Dmitriev—his special envoy to Washington—to dangle a $14 trillion economic package to the U.S. involving joint projects, sanctions relief, and energy cooperation in exchange for a peace deal with Kyiv.
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Iran is now threatening to withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel continues fighting against their terrorist proxy Hezbollah. The information comes from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-controlled Tasnim news agency, which says it received the information from government sources.
Trump, however, could not—and it is unlikely he will be able to—get Israel to stop their attacks against Hezbollah in exchange for a “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.”
This impasse could scuttle the peace talks scheduled for Saturday to be hosted by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Islamabad. Vice President JD Vance is slated to lead the U.S. delegation. He will be accompanied by Steve Witkoff & Jared Kushner.
Iran is expected to be represented by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf & Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Ghalibaf, however, is angry about Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Earlier today, in a post on X, he said in light of the strikes, “a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable.”
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The President’s tenuous ceasefire agreement with Iran has only served to embolden the regime, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) & the Basij. It is not often that a country that achieves all its primary military objectives in a war effectively risks capitulating to the defeated party.
Yet here we are.
As far as the Iranian regime is concerned, they have won the war. Indeed, many regime supporters took to the streets last night in Tehran to celebrate.
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The regime remains in power, and they maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz, which is set to become a huge financial windfall for them. According to The Telegraph, the country without a navy could generate as much as $500 billion a year charging oil tankers $2 million each to pass through the “Tehran Tollbooth” under an IRGC escort.
As Charlie Sheen’s character would say from the 2011 “Two and a Half Men” television sitcom—“winning.” Spoiler: It is not Trump who is winning.
In the eyes of Dan Hodges, a columnist for the Daily Mail, and many others—Iran won the war and Trump lost. With no clearly defined end state, it was easy for security analysts and journalists alike to come to that conclusion.
Plus, given Iran’s continued launching of ballistic missiles & attack drones against Israel, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar hours after agreeing to the ceasefire, it is also easy to question Trump’s claim that the U.S. had “exceeded all his military objectives.”
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Whether or not you agree with Trump’s decision to an 11th hour ceasefire with Iran or not—we did not—he did try diplomacy in the only way he knew how. In doing so, however, he relied upon the wrong men. Witkoff & Kushner—two businessmen with no military background—lack the necessary experience.
Yet—unsurprisingly, at least to us—Iran proved once again they could not be trusted. Different team, same outcome. The faces may be different, but the ideology is not. 47 years of indoctrination does that.
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It’s time to get back to winning and allow U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Adm. Brad Cooper to close Iran out.
The President needs to remain focused on completing the military campaign he approved—striking military targets—the regime’s source of projecting terror. Together, CENTCOM and the intelligence community must identify and destroy Iran’s remaining ballistic missile and drone inventories, their mobile launchers and storage facilities.
They need to turn their primary attention to the regime’s center of gravity as well—the IRGC and their Basij paramilitary. They are the regime’s chief source of remaining in power & brutally suppressing dissent.
CENTCOM needs to create the conditions that Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated at the beginning of the war that would allow the Iranian people and the Regular Army to ‘take back’ their country. Give them––when the time is right—the ‘clear signal’ that Adm. Cooper promised to make to them when it was opportune to take to the streets & begin fighting for freedom.
Doing so requires bringing the fire power projected upon Kharg Island and used to rescue the F-15E weapons system officer to bear on IRGC forces arrayed along the Iranian coastline threatening ships in the Strait. Extract a price—and make them fear the U.S.
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Equally important, the President must have faith in his intelligence community and confidence in his military commanders and the men and women they lead.
Do what needs to be done. The April 7th ceasefire agreement—at least the U.S. version of it—tells us that means reopening the Strait of Hormuz. That requires securing key terrain along the Iranian coast and defeating IRGC forces targeting shipping in the Strait.
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There is precedent. During the invasion of Normandy on June 6th, 1944, U.S. Army Rangers scaled the 100-foot cliffs of Pointe du Hoc to neutralize German coastal artillery positions and secure terrain.
Today, U.S. Army Rangers and paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division, U.S. Marines, and Special Forces teams—supported by U.S. Air Force A-10 Warthogs and AH-64 Apache attack helicopters providing close air support—are prepared to secure key terrain and conduct raids and assaults to defeat IRGC forces operating along the coastline and destroy their instruments of war: speedboats, mine layers, unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV), assault drones with their operators and mobile launchers, coastal defense batteries, and weapons-munitions storage facilities.
Together, they are a nasty combination.
Ultimately, success or failure of Operation Epic Fury will be measured by the U.S. reopening and securing the Strait of Hormuz, which has now become a source of strength for the regime. Securing the strait will likely be the last Jenga piece holding up the regime.
Much like Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower’s decision to launch the Normandy invasion, President Trump finds himself in a position to make a difficult decision—one that will likely result in more American service members losing their lives—to bring this war to an end and provide a lasting peace to the region.
Freedom isn’t free. Neither is—sadly—peace in the Middle East.
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PROGRAMMING NOTE!
Tomorrow, our weekly 7:00 AM ET national security column at The Hill in Washington, D.C., focuses on Trump’s failure to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
We didn’t pull any punches.
You can read it here when it goes live.
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Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
Why are we even bothering to talk to these people tomorrow no further negotiations, secure the straits, and eliminate the regime.
The reality: https://youtu.be/_L8y2EXniqM?si=TKjP-0lLlk8O4lXW