INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
04.09.2026
April 9th, 2026
Greetings!
Tomorrow is Holy Friday in Russia & Ukraine—the Eastern Orthodox equivalent of Good Friday—leading up to their Easter on Sunday. Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for an Easter ceasefire.
Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin accepted it, saying that it should begin Saturday at 4 PM in Moscow & end on Sunday at midnight. Last year, Putin declared a unilateral Easter ceasefire only for Russia to violate it nearly 3,000 times.
During that ceasefire, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), reported 96 Russian military assaults in addition to heavy shelling & drone attacks throughout the frontlines.
Photo credit: Mil.ru. The Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces in Moscow which was completed in 2020.
Understandably, Zelensky is skeptical. So are we. Putin is hardly a man devoted to God, let alone peace on earth.
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Quite the opposite, Putin has pitched his war against Ukraine—according to Madeline Adamo, a writer for UCLA—as a “sacred mission to protect traditional Orthodox values from the decadent West.”
Framing, however, is not the same as intent. Putin’s intent is to subjugate—if not conquer—all of Ukraine. To do that, he has framed it as a Holy War & as a contrived historical one to reunite all of the lands of Kievan Rus’.
Putin’s justifications for his war, or special military operation as he puts it, are essential in understanding (1) his Peter the Great-like imperial intent to reunite all of historical Russia & the republics that once comprised the Soviet Union; and (2) just how long he has been planning to invade Ukraine.
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In September 2018, then-Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the construction of the Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces in Moscow. Later that year, Putin, alongside Patriarch Kirill I, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, laid the cornerstone for the new cathedral.
Photo credit: Mikhail Metzel / TASS. Putin (left) attends a ceremony with Patriarch Kirill I (right) blessing the foundation stone of the Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces on September 19th, 2018, in Moscow.
Putin, during the ceremony, said “It will be the main church of our Armed Forces, one more symbol of our invincible national tradition.” In theory, the new cathedral was pitched as a monument to Russia’s defenders. However, in reality it was intended as a symbol of Russia’s military might & designs on Eastern Europe.
Absurdly, Kirill I, while standing next to Putin, claimed that “It is common knowledge that Russia has never conducted wars for land grabbing.” Really? He conveniently overlooked Moscow’s 2014 seizure & illegal annexation of Crimea from Ukraine & the Soviet Union’s collusion with Nazi Germany to grab half of Poland.
Kirill I undoubtedly knew what was afoot & whether he realized it or not, he nearly gave Putin’s game away by making such an easily disproved assertion. The Patriarch—himself a former fellow KGB agent stationed in Switzerland—knew Putin’s true territorial ambitions.
Putin—in advance of his 2022 invasion of Ukraine—was creating a very unholy alliance between the Russian Orthodox Church & the Russian military. The Guardian, perhaps, put it best at the time. They called it in 2020—referring to the completed cathedral—as a marriage of “angels and artillery.”
Photo credit: Valery Sharifulin / TASS. The Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces in Patriot Park, Kubinka.
Today, arguably, we’d call it a tragic marriage of ghosts & artillery. Since Putin’s special military operation began, Russia has suffered 1,308,670 unholy casualties—dead & wounded—in pursuit of his vision of Peter the Great grandeur & Kievan Rus’ mythology. We once were derided for suggesting at The Hill that Putin would trade 300,000 or more Russian coffins for an empire in Ukraine.
Now, the number of dead Russian soldiers lost to the war in Ukraine likely stands at well over 300,000. There is no earthly resurrecting them—at least on the battlefields—and that may explain why Putin is using the cover of Easter Sunday to pause for 32 hours.
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As Gen. Syrskyi noted earlier today on Telegram, “For four months in a row, starting from December 2025, our unmanned systems units have neutralized more enemy personnel than they recruit to their ranks.” That is an unsustainable rate.
As Mark recently pointed out last week on TVP World’s World News Tonight, Ukraine is creating a cascading effect in which tactical frontline successes are leading to operational opportunities for the AFU—e.g., the country’s gains in the south—and ultimately could force a change in Russia’s overall war strategy.
Ukrainian drone warfare—which Jon has frequently assessed as a revolution in military affairs—is chiefly why the AFU is achieving tactical gains—and why that cascading effect has Putin’s army on their heels. As Syrskyi noted, “In March, compared to February, the total losses of enemy personnel caused by our unmanned systems units increased by 29%.”
How is Ukraine achieving that?
They are creating what they call a dynamic “Killzone.” It is 10-15 kilometers deep—6.2-9.3 miles—wherein Russian infantry & mechanized forces “cannot advance without losses. The Defense of Ukraine reported that 10,500 “Russian troops and hundreds of pieces of equipment” were struck by the AFU in March alone.
As retired Gen. David Petraeus, the former CIA Director under President Donald Trump & former U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) commander, pointed out on CBS News, the Ukrainians cannot outnumber the Russians, so they are outthinking them. They are also outkilling them on the frontlines.
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Plus, as the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) pointed out in its April 9th update, Ukraine’s “drone advantage is likely contributing to the stalling of Russian advances and recent Ukrainian counterattacks.” That’s significant––especially in Ukraine’s strategic Fortress Belt in the Donbas––to thwarting Putin’s Spring & Summer offensive plans.
Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
Meanwhile, to the north near Russia’s border with Ukraine, the AFU is advancing in the Kupyansk direction according to the ISW. Bear in mind, last November, Putin bragged that his forces completely controlled the city of Kupyansk only for Zelensky to show up & take a selfie of himself downtown.
Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
It’s no wonder Putin wants—needs?—an Easter truce. However, it isn’t just because of the war on the frontlines. It is also because of the deep fight that the AFU is waging inside of Mother Russia, especially its oil & energy sector.
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Notably last week, Kyiv, for the first time since the start of the war, launched more drones against Russia than Moscow was able to muster against Kyiv. Many of their targets have been aimed at Russia’s oil export infrastructure.
That has including striking Russian ports in Novorossiysk in the Black Sea as well as Primorsk & Ust-Luga in the Baltic Sea near St. Petersburg, Putin’s hometown. The AFU even hit Feodosia in occupied Crimea.
Overall, Ukraine’s strikes have destroyed or disrupted an estimated 40% or more of Russia’s oil export capacity. Presently, it is believed that equates to over 1 million barrels of oil a day. It had even reached as high as 2 million.
Many believed Russia would benefit from a windfall due to rising global oil prices as a result of the war in Iran, but as Mark pointed out in a forthcoming taped interview on First Western TV in Ukraine, you can’t profit from what you can’t get to market.
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Over the past 24 hours, we are beginning to learn just how great a negative economic impact Ukraine’s war against Russia’s energy sector is having. According to a report in the Moscow Times, Russia’s budget deficit in only the first three months already exceeded what was estimated to be its full-year target.
Plunging oil & gas revenues were largely why. They dropped by a whopping 45% over the first quarter in 2026.
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This likely explains why—in addition to Putin’s Easter Truce—Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s special envoy to the U.S., was dispatched once again to meet with Trump Administration officials ahead of a U.S. decision to extend temporary sanction waivers for Russia oil that are set to expire on April 11th.
Enjoy the irony. Dmitriev usually shows up when he wants to dangle economic deals to convince the U.S. to force Ukraine to capitulate & cede its Fortress Donbas to Putin. Now, it is highly likely that he is the one with his hand out.
That said, it is important to keep our guard up. Bad things usually happen for Ukraine when Dmitriev meets with Steve Witkoff & Jared Kushner. The latter two are expected to travel to Ukraine––a first––sometime next week.
Dmitriev, no doubt, is also trying to influence that meeting’s outcome before it ever takes place. Thankfully, this time, it’s Ukraine holding the cards due in large part because of its drone warfare against Russia.
That said, just as we were wrapping this edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report, Zelensky is doubtful now whether the summit will occur.
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Make no mistake. Putin is nowhere near conceding or giving up on his special military operation in Ukraine.
His need for an Easter pause is just that. A pause. 32 hours to try to figure out how to stop the bleeding—literally, when it comes to his soldiers & figuratively when it comes to his economy due to Ukraine’s successful drone attacks.
It is likely Putin will make a play to Trump to help him out of the mess he now finds himself in. If so, Trump would do well to consider that Russian media is mocking him over the war in Iran—and that, Putin, alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping, is providing Iran with U.S. military targets to hit.
Now is a good time for Team Trump to finally learn how to say Nyet!
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Jon & Mark
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Not only Russia but also Hungary are sharing intelligence with Iran while JD Vance flies to Budapest to back its leader amid election campaign : do you consider Trump to be a 'happy' cuckold or is he actually Agent Kraznov? But for sure: "When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace becomes a circus."
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