INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
03.23.2026
March 23rd, 2026
Greetings!
It’s Day 24 of the war in Iran & it is—to say the least—a chaotic one. Earlier today, President Donald Trump announced in a Truth Social post—prior to the opening of the New York Stock Exchange—that he was postponing “all military strikes against Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period.”
AI-Image credit: Grok. Image of Iran viewed as a chaos theory.
Why?
He claimed that the U.S. and “the country of Iran” held productive discussions over the weekend “regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.” From there, chaos ensued.
It was—and still is as we head into the evening hours—chaos theory in action. One event started triggering others.
The media began speculating who Team Trump is talking to. Fairly quickly, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf—the Speaker of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s parliament—was fingered as the likely suspect.
Soon thereafter, Ghalibaf posted on X that “no negotiations have been held with the US, and [that fake news] is [being] used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and [to] escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.” Instead, Ghalibaf demanded the “complete and remorseful punishment of the aggressors.”
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This may be a case of ‘will the real Ghalibaf please stand up,’ if we can borrow the premise of the 1950s American TV show To Tell the Truth that was first hosted by Bud Collyer. Ghalibaf—directly or through intermediaries—may very well be having preliminary discussions with Team Trump.
It may also be a case wherein Ghalibaf—who is by all accounts a very ambitious man who aspires to be the President of Iran—realizes he is too far out in front of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Photo credit: ICANA News Agency. Undated photo of Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament.
Likewise, we can’t discount—and shouldn’t—that Ghalibaf is simply playing for time to try to avoid being on the receiving end of a U.S. or Israeli missile. In that same vein, Ghalibaf’s denial might be trying to avoid an IRGC bullet.
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Either way, Trump’s chaos—and we’d argue that it is likely designed chaos—had the immediate economic effect that he sought. It did—as Ghalibaf claimed—calm the oil markets. As noted by the Wall Street Journal, oil futures for Brent oil—a global benchmark—dropped to under $100 a barrel after Trump’s post on Truth Social.
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Don’t discount either that Team Trump is likely to intentionally create divisions with the remaining members of the regime. Especially between the political heads—weak as they are—and the IRGC who are now effectively running the country.
This very well could be a divide & conquer type strategy designed to create paranoia in those left—for now—still standing in Tehran. Chaos—especially when served with fear—is a very effective psyop.
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It also appears that it is designed to stir Saudi Arabia into taking yet to be determined offensive military action against Iran. Over the course of the last week, Prince Faisal bin Farhan—the kingdom’s foreign minister—has harshly rebuked the Iranian regime.
During a speech, he emphasized that “I do not understand how they [Iran] claim to defend Islamic causes while attacking Islamic countries.” He continued, listing Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Oman, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, & Turkey as targets of unacceptable Iranian military aggression.
Notably—and arguably the most damning—is Prince Faisal specifically accused Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, as well as Iraqi & Syrian militias as serving Iranian state interests and not those of genuine “resistance” advancing the Palestinian cause.
In that vein, Trump—by threatening to cut a peace deal with Iran—is likely messaging Saudi Arabia that it is now or never to put Saudi skin in the game. That message—no doubt—is also intended for the other Gulf States including the United Arab Emirates (UAE). So far, they’ve played defense but no offense.
Team Trump—whether you agree with their decision or not—has opened wide the Iranian Pandora’s Box. The Gulf States—especially Saudi Arabia & the UAE—have the greatest vested interest in ensuring it is permanently slammed shut—especially Iran’s nuclear weapons, drones & ballistic missiles programs.
Trump—in our view—is demanding that they help close it.
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Capitol Hill—of course—is adding to the chaos. Wittingly or not—and we are just speculating here—they may be adding to the chaos Team Trump is likely intentionally introducing regarding ending the war.
Some are saying Trump TACO is back by reversing course or at least pausing it for five days. If you’ve missed it, TACO stands for “Trump always chickens out.” Others––including Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT)––have viewed it as simply “postponing a possible war crime.” Others still support peace talks.
Our sense?
Trump is playing a ‘look here, so we don’t look over there’ type of game. Capitol Hill may fall for that.
We shouldn’t.
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Despite the overt chaos—and again it is likely designed chaos—all of this really isn’t as chaotic as it appears. To rise above the fog of the chaos—and indeed, the fog of social media including X—it is useful to do two things.
One, consider Trump’s demands. They remain maximalist. Zero Iranian enrichment. No ballistic missile program—at least, reportedly, for five years. Major human rights reform within the Islamic Republic of Iran.
And—significantly—an end to the IRGC’s support of its so-called Axis of Resistance—the armed militias that Prince Faisal accused Iran of using to advance their own interests. That includes ending military funding & training for Hamas, Hezbollah & the Houthis).
The IRGC is highly unlikely to agree to any of that.
Two, focus on Central Command (CENTCOM) & especially the words of its commander, Adm. Brad Cooper. There is a well-designed & executed military plan being carried out anchored by a well-defined set of targets.
Photo credit: CENTCOM. CENTCOM Commander, Admiral Brad Cooper.
By most accounts, we are only slightly halfway into that target set. That’s why Cooper is telling Iranians it is not yet time to take to the streets.
This isn’t a video game. We can’t skip chapters & that means we can’t skip those target sets that in totality were—and are—designed to weaken, if not topple, the regime that likely is now completely in the hands of the IRGC.
Earlier this weekend—in his first media sit down interview with Iran International—Cooper assessed that “we’re largely ahead of or on plan [to achieve] our main military objectives. He also assessed that Iran is “operating in desperation [mode].”
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Meanwhile—in support of that—U.S. & Israeli attacks continue unabated on Iran. The strikes—according to The Institute for the Study of War (ISW)—are largely concentrated north to south on the western half of Iran. These include hits in Tehran & against key Iranian military & naval sites adjacent to the Strait of Hormuz—including the key naval port of Bandar Abbas.
Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
Over the past 24 hours, most of those strikes were concentrated—again per the ISW—on “targeting Iranian ballistic missile infrastructure to degrade Iran’s missile capabilities.” Notably the ISW also reported that the U.S. & Israel “struck IRGC Ground Force units at several echelons in central and southern Iran.”
Many of these strikes were strategic. However, some were tactical. Others appear to be what is known as condition setting.
That’s why—in our view—Trump’s play for chaos today and over the weekend is likely just a play for time. Time to emplace the 9,500 Marines aboard the USS Tripoli & USS Boxer. Time to move the 82nd Airborne into position.
This isn’t over. This isn’t even the beginning of the end. It is likely—but we could be wrong—the beginning of U.S. & Israeli escalation.
In chaos theory terms, Trump’s peace talks announcement today might very well be the butterfly—known in mathematics as the butterfly effect—that might lead to a ground incursion somewhere in Iran. Our guess? In and around key terrain points of the Strait of Hormuz.
Time will tell.
Meanwhile, sidestep the chaos. Ignore Trump. Ignore Capitol Hill. To reiterate, instead, focus on Cooper. He has a plan. He alongside his command at CENTCOM is executing it.
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ICYMI #1
Jon was on Al Qahera News on Saturday to discuss the latest developments on the war in Iran. You can watch it here.
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ICYMI #2
Mark was on Al Qahera News on Sunday to discuss the war in Iran & the prospect of Trump attacking Iranian electricity facilities. You can watch it here.
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Thank you for reading! We will see you Monday. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
Good read. But... IMO Trump is not intelligent enough to have a plan designed. He just likes to create chaos (plus any diversion from Epstein files). But then eventually walk away and leave it for others to clean up. His plans are whatever his whim of the hour is, or how it "feels it in his bones."