INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

06.04.2026: DOES UKRAINE'S OPERATIONAL REACH = RUSSIAN ESCALATION?

June 4th, 2026

Greetings!

As the saying goes, “When you least expect it — expect it.”

Ukraine seems to have cornered the ‘surprise’ market, and the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine – the former Chief of the Defense Intelligence == Kyrylo Budanov, probably had something to do with it.

As we stated in The Washington Star today, “Russian President Vladimir Putin forgot to put in his request for a ceasefire with President Donald Trump in time for the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum of 2026 (SPIEF 2026) — aka Putin’s Davos.”

Photo Credit: Mikhail Kireev / Roscongress.

Sergiy Sternenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s Defense Minister, stated “The Petersburg forum is opening with a nice plume of black smoke in the background after Ukrainian strikes.”

The cost was threefold — humiliation on the world stage, lost revenue from oil, and a Project 20380 corvette knocked out of commission.

Ukraine put on quite a show striking the St. Petersburg oil terminal and the Kronstadt naval base. Its long-range drones – traveling over 600 miles — easily penetrated Russia’s air defense network and precisely found their targets.

Needless to say – many Russian air defense officers are avoiding open windows today.

The icing on the cake came when they struck a Russian naval vessel — the “Boikiy” in dry dock at the Kronstadt naval base.

Watch the video here: https://news.sky.com/share/13550528

The Boikiy was part of the Russian Navy Baltic Fleet. It was designed for multi-role operations, including surface and airborne targets and supporting coastal strikes, and has been used to escort vessels in its shadow oil fleet.

Not any more.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the strike involved the Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Special Operations Forces (SSO), the State Border Guard Service (DPSU), and other units.

The joint operation once again put on display Ukraine’s ability to strike deep into the Russian interior – providing no sanctuary.

Zelensky commented “There are good results from our long-range sanctions. Important facilities on Russian territory were hit overnight,” adding that “Ukraine’s plan for long-range strikes is being carried out exactly as needed to bring peace closer.”

But his ‘good results’ will likely generate a Russian response — and an escalation of some sort.

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THE HUMILIATION

SPIEF 2026 was billed as “Putin’s Davos.”

CNN reported that twenty thousand people from more than 100 countries would travel to St. Petersburg to participate in the economic forum. Instead — they got a fireworks show.

Russian Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov told TASS that Putin was scheduled to deliver a ‘grand speech’ in St. Petersburg on Friday, June 5th, though given Russia’s inability to secure their own skies and Putin’s propensity to avoid hazardous situations — he will likely call this one in.

That said, having the American delegation — led by Rodney Mims Cook Jr., who serves as chair of the U.S. Commission of Fine Arts — in his immediate proximity as potential human shields may increase his comfort factor.

Photo Credit: Alexander Demyanchuk/ TASS. Chairman of the U.S. Fine Arts Commission Rodney Mims Cook Jr. (left) and rector of the Trinity-Sergius Desert Monastery, Abbot Varlaam (Pereverzev) (right)

On Tuesday Cook presented a copy of the Sitkin Icon of the Mother of God to the Holy Trinity St. Sergius Primorskaya Desert in Strelna near St. Petersburg at “the suggestion of U.S. President Donald Trump” as a response gesture to the gift of Putin to the church in Alaska.

Oddly enough, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told senators on Wednesday that he was not aware of the delegation. When asked why the U.S. sent a delegation, he responded, “I’m aware of the event. I know they were hosting one, but I don’t think it would have been a high-level official.”

In addition to the gift, we can think of $14 trillion reasons.

Remember Kirill Dmitriev?

Zelensky reminded Putin — and the world for that matter — that there is a war going on in Ukraine, and that Ukraine is bringing that war to Russia. A war — ‘special military operation’ — that Putin started, and now uses to target Ukrainian civilians in their homes, schools, markets, churches, hospitals, and bomb shelters with ballistic missiles, glide bombs and drones.

Ukraine carefully selected its targets in St. Petersburg to avoid civilian casualties while achieving its objectives — but they were close enough for Putin’s guests to see, smell, and feel war.

Zelensky commended his soldiers’ performance, “I thank our soldiers for their accuracy. The Ukrainian long-range sanctions plan is being implemented exactly as it is needed to bring peace closer.”

And Putin’s military couldn’t stop it — not even in his hometown.

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LOST REVENUE

In addition to the optics, the strike on the St. Petersburg oil terminal fits Ukraine’s ‘deep strike’ strategy — to defeat Russia’s ability to wage war by targeting its principal sources of revenue: Oil.

Less rubles to spend on the war. Speaking at a joint press conference in Kyiv, Zelensky foreshadowed what may lie ahead, “It’s just a matter of time before we can scale up the intensity of our responses.”

Photo Credit: AP Photo. Plumes of black smoke seen over the port of St. Petersburg, Russia, June 3, 2026 after a Ukrainian drone attack.

The St. Petersburg Oil Terminal is one of Russia’s largest liquid cargo transshipment terminals on the Baltic Sea. The terminal had 31 storage tanks — minus 5 today — with a total capacity of 324,000 cubic metres. Its annual throughput capacity is 12.5 million tons. The terminal handles crude oil, petroleum products, liquefied natural gas and other liquid chemical substances.

The Kyiv Post documented the following battle damage assessment (BDA):

Eyewitness reports of at least five hits and fiery explosions during the attack;

Ukrainian investigative group Skhemy published Planet Labs satellite imagery showing a large-scale fire at the terminal site;

Imagery released by the U.S. spatial intelligence firm Vantor via AP showed a large smoke plume towering over the oil terminal;

Ukrainian OSINT researchers at CyberBroshono reported on Thursday that at least five reservoirs were destroyed, and others probably were breached;

Watch video here: https://www.nbcnews.com/video/shorts/ukrainian-drones-strike-st-petersburg-264434757621

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THE RUSSIAN RESPONSE

The Russian response has been somewhat measured — for now at least.

A second strike isn’t likely — Zelensky already sent his message.

Putin is clearly rattled though, but has to maintain an appearance before the international media covering SPIEF 2026.

He has an economic forum to attend to after all — and guests in need of security.

The Russian dictator acknowledged that in a press conference today. After blaming the West for providing drones to Ukraine, he stated, “Russia has an air defense system. Yes, we need to improve it. Yes, we need to strengthen it, and we will do that.”

Then he harbingered what was likely to come by saying, “But Ukraine doesn’t have such a system. They just have some individual components, but there is no system.”

The Russian recourse to every setback, to every defeat on the battlefield, has been to launch hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones into Ukrainian cities — and that likely will include the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. Once the economic forum has concluded, and all the guests have gone home, he will do it again.

But is that what Russia’s elite want? More of the same? And now in the backyard?

The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that “significant voices in the Russian establishment have publicly started to call for an end to the conflict.”

Russian officials have said they are ready to consider ending the war as long as “U.S. forces Ukraine to abide by the “Anchorage understandings” — an agreement made between Putin and Trump in Alaska last August that requires Ukraine to withdraw from the Donbas region. Zelensky was never consulted and Trump has failed to deliver.

The war goes on.

As Germany’s deputy defense minister Nils Schmid recently stated, “Kyiv’s drone campaign shows the potential of havoc that the Ukrainian forces can bring to Russia, but it might take time for this to diffuse into society and into political decision-making in Moscow because they have such an authoritarian grip on the population and the regime that is rather unified in terms of pursuing the war.”

It’s a question of how much more will the ‘significant voices in Russia’ tolerate?

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ICYMI #1

In our weekly 7 AM ET Thursday national security column today at The Hill in Washington, D.C., we warn the White House that Iran is not playing by Trump’s rules.

Photo credit: Alex Brandon / AP. Trump pumps his fist in an undated photograph taken at the White House.

You can read it here.

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ICYMI #2

Today, in our regular weekday column for The Washington Star, we examined Ukraine’s bold attack on oil facilities in St. Petersburg, Russia. In addition to being Putin’s hometown, it is also the site of SPIEF 2026.

Screenshot credit: Ukraine Ministry of Defense. Kyiv put on its own big show in St. Petersburg, hitting its oil terminal Wednesday.

You can read it here. It is not behind a paywall.

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ICYMI #3

Jon was back on Al-Qahera News today discussing the situation in Iran.

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Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.