INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
03.03.2026
March 3rd, 2026
Greetings! It is Day 4 of the war in Iran & according to Adm. Brad Cooper—the commander of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)—Operation Epic Fury is “ ahead of our game plan.” He noted in an update posted on X, that the U.S. has “severely degraded Iran’s air defenses” & destroyed “hundreds” of Iranian ballistic missiles, launchers & drones.
Photo credit: CENTCOM. Adm. Brad Cooper, the commander of CENTCOM.
Cooper also said that 50,000 U.S. troops are participating as well as 2000 fighter jets, two aircraft carriers & United States Air Force (USAF) bombers. Notably, he said “more capability is on the way” & ended that “We’ve just begun.”
Early results are encouraging.
Iran’s capacity to fire ballistic missiles & drones is rapidly declining day-by-day. On Day 1—February 28th—Iran launched 350 ballistic missiles. By Day 2, it was 50% less at 175. On Day 3 it was 120 & today—based on the data available as we pen this special edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report—it was down to 50.
As Cooper noted, the U.S. has sunk 17 Iranian naval ships including a submarine. The CENTCOM commander also stated that “there is not a single Iranian ship in the Arabian Gulf, in the Strait of Hormuz and in the Gulf of Oman.”
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As The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) observed today—and we agree—the opening core of Washington & Jerusalem’s war plan is “to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities before the force depletes its interceptor stockpiles.”
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Simultaneously, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continues its Iranian leadership decapitation campaign. Earlier today, the IDF struck the building in the Holy City of Qom where the Assembly of Experts—a panel of Shia clerics—was voting to elect a new Supreme Leader.
Despite the attack, according to Iran International, the clerics, “under pressure” from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have elected Mojtaba Khamenei—the son of Ali Khamenei—as the new leader.
Photo credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader. Mojtaba Khamenei in 2024.
If so, that is not a good development. Mojtaba is just as evil & demented as his father. Notably, his wife, mother & a son were also killed during the IDF strike on Khamenei’s compound in Tehran. Mojtaba also has close ties to the IRGC.
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Mojtaba may not have long to live. Especially if he stays in Tehran. As charted in this ISW map, the U.S. & Israel continue to aggressively target the regime & its security apparatus—including the Basij, IRGC command & control facilities, & communications networks.
Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
Meanwhile, CENTCOM & the IDF are also striking other targets across Iran—including hits on an underground nuclear facility known as Minzadehei in Tehran, underground facilities at the Parchin Military Complex that are used to build drones & ballistic missiles, as well as mobile launchers, radar sites & airfields.
The map below—from the ISW—gives us a sense of the scale of the ongoing U.S. & Israeli air strikes. For perspective, note that Iran is roughly 2.5 times the size of Texas. That’s a lot of ground to cover even at supersonic speeds.
Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
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Iran’s strategy—thus far—appears to be failing. Much of it—clearly––was predicated upon pressuring Gulf States to lobby Trump to end the fighting. As tallied in this AJC graph, Iran has largely targeted the United Arab Emirates & Kuwait. So far, Israel is in 5th place.
Source: AJC.
So far, that strategy hasn’t worked. Instead of creating pressure on the U.S., it is prompting the Gulf States to consider attacking Iran. Meanwhile, it is estimated that the U.S. & Israel have destroyed 300 mobile ballistic missile launchers. Pre-war estimates suggested Iran only possessed 400 or so.
Nonetheless, Tehran continues to try & expand the war in an effort to outlast President Donald Trump’s attention span. They continue to target Gulf States & and yesterday an Iranian drone struck a British base in Akrotiri, Cyprus in the Mediterranean. London—weakly, in our view—responded they are not at war with Iran.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer—clearly, in our apolitical view—is no Winston Churchill or Margaret Thatcher in terms of being a wartime leader. Trump reached the same conclusion earlier today in the Oval Office when he noted that Starmer is “no Winston Churchill.”
King Charles III will have some heavy lifting to do in late April when he visits the White House in a state visit.
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Elsewhere in Europe—as the war in Iran progresses into its fifth day—the Russian war in Ukraine is in its 49th month.
While the world braces for a regional war in the Middle East, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky & the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to defend their country from Russian President Vladimir Putin. That includes asymmetrically targeting Russian oil including Moscow’s shadow fleet.
Early Monday morning, Ukraine carried out attacks on the Sheskharis oil terminal, one of the largest oil & petroleum transshipment hubs in southern Russia, as well as the Novorossiysk naval base located in Russia’s Krasnodar region. Novorossiysk is roughly responsible for 20% of Russia’s crude oil exports. It is also the country’s largest export port on the Black Sea.
This marks the second occasion in which Ukraine has targeted the Sheskharis terminal. In November of last year, strikes were carried out on both the Sheskharis terminal & the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal, which manages a significant portion of Kazakhstan’s oil exports. The CPC, partly owned by Chevron & ExxonMobil, is responsible for handling up to 1% of global oil supplies.
In February, the U.S. State Department lodged its dissatisfaction with the Ukrainian attack in a formal demarche. Olga Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the United States, clarified that the outreach was not aimed at discouraging Kyiv from targeting Russian military & energy infrastructure. Rather, it was more narrowly focused on the impact to American economic interests.
Either way, it was a bad look. Ukraine is fighting for its national survival. American profits in Russia can wait.
On Tuesday, a Russian-flagged liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker, the Arctic Metagaz, reportedly caught fire in the Mediterranean Sea. According to a Reuters source, the fire may have been caused by a Ukrainian naval drone attack.
While the report remains unconfirmed, Ukraine has increased its attacks on Russian tankers using sea drones. The Ukraine Security Service (SBU) claimed it struck two sanctioned Russian oil tankers, Kairos and Virat, off Turkey’s Black Sea coast in late November.
Iran’s current predicament—ironically—is emboldening Zelensky. Despite Iran signing a so-called “comprehensive strategic partnership treaty” with Putin in January 2025, Moscow has left Tehran dangling in the face of joint U.S.-Israeli attacks.
For Zelensky––and we agree––he likely sees Putin’s response for what it is: Russian weakness. The Kremlin alongside its state-controlled media is good at talking big, but when it comes to delivering––especially for its erstwhile allies in Venezuela, Syria, & Iran––they are nowhere to be seen.
That like explains why Zelensky drew a new red line in the sand. During a press conference on Monday, he outright rejected the idea of “exchanging Ukrainian-held territory in the Donbas for areas seized by Russia in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.” He went on to say that “The Russians clearly understand that they will not be able to hold them, and the time will come when we push them out of these territories.”
Zelensky’s confidence was bolstered by recent battlefield gains by the Ukrainian army. On the fourth anniversary of the war, Zelenskyy told Agence France-Presse that Ukrainian forces had regained 300 square kilometers of territory in southern Ukraine. Two days later his commander in chief, Oleksandr Syrskii, said those southern gains were 400 sq kms.
Suddenly, Zelensky is holding cards Trump has repeatedly told him he did not have. On Sunday, Starmer announced that Britain “plans to deploy Ukrainian drone warfare specialists to the Middle East as part of international efforts to counter the growing threat posed by swarms of Iranian drones.”
Other European partners are seeking Ukrainian expertise as well. Germany recently disclosed plans for Ukrainian military instructors to train their troops. Ukrainian trainers are sharing drone warfare techniques, tactics and procedures gained from battlefield experience in Ukraine with multiple European countries – including Poland.
As we first reported in The Hill in July 2022, Ukraine has sparked a Revolution in Military Affairs with their adaptation of drones into modern warfare. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that during a spring 2025 exercise in Estonia involving NATO forces & Ukrainian drone crews, “the Ukrainian easily overcame a far larger NATO contingent, sparking considerable alarm and much debate.”
This makes Trump’s mockery—yet again—of Zelensky. Earlier today—in a Truth Social post about munitions shortages—Trump needlessly & self-defeatingly referred to the Ukrainian president as “Barnum (Zelenskyy!) of Ukraine.
Why do that?
If it were not for Ukraine, the U.S. would likely be facing a far stronger Russia that very well could have decided to intervene on behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Axis of Evil—Russia included—is reeling.
Why not take the win, Mr. President?
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ICYMI!
Mark was on Al Qahera News earlier today to discuss Day 3 of the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran. He noticed a significant change in tonality. Whereas in previous appearances, the Egyptian hosts of this state-aligned television station were largely skeptical of U.S. action in Iran, today they were focused on the positives that can come out of it.
That is—likely—just one more confirmation that the Islamic Republic of Iran’s decision to attack Arab states is backfiring.
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Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
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IMO;These military officers share knowledge you can only get from the inside! The first thing this con did during his first term was destroy Our Military leadership! We need their brains now more than ever as an ignorant criminal has taken control of Our Military! They act like they’re playing a video game with live ammo!
It took 40+ years and 6 Oval Office visits (since this regime hijacked our Oval Office in 2025) for Netanyahu to find a U.S. president weak, and delusional enough to support his Genocide. Probably offered tRump a golf course with his name on it to join Israel in starting an unprovoked war with Iran! This attack only benefits Russia, China, and of course Israel! Netizens let’s do what we do to make change happen. We need guys entire regime arrested then we can prosecute them (including the corrupt scotus6) for treason via Article 2 Section 4 of Our Constitution! Follow/ Share