INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
05.23.2026: DID TRUMP JUST SURRENDER TO IRAN?
May 23rd, 2026
Greetings!
We hadn’t planned on writing today, however, as is the case in covering national security, breaking news often messes up the best-laid holiday plans.
These are only our preliminary reactions. Especially since we need to reserve judgment until we see the final version of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that President Donald Trump said that he is close to signing with Iran.
The early leaks — if true — are not good.
First, Trump’s statement on Truth Social suggests that he is risking surrendering to Iran as opposed to his original “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” demand on March 6th, 2026. Secondly, only opening the Strait of Hormuz was mentioned.
AI image credit: Grok. Illustration of President Donald Trump debating whether to wave a “I SURRENDER” flag versus a “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” flag.
There was no mention of Iran’s 440.9 kilograms of highly enriched 60% uranium or any of the regime’s 8.5K kilograms of low enriched 20% or less uranium. Nor did Trump reference putting an end to Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance.’
Even worse — and not quite just an hour later — Iran’s FARS News Agency pushed back on Trump’s claim that the Strait of Hormuz would be fully reopened. The quasi-official Iranian news service stated that was “far from reality.”
Let’s get started examining what is at stake.
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VALERIAN LEVEL HUMILIATION FOR TRUMP?
In the third century — 260 A.D. to be exact — the Roman Emperor Valerian was forced to surrender to Shapur I, the second Persian King of Kings after losing the Battle of Edessa & was held in captivity in Iran for the remainder of his life. It was the first & only time an emperor of Rome was captured.
Photo credit: Tehran Times. A statue in Tehran’s Enghelab Square depicting a kneeling Roman Emperor Valerian surrendering to King Shapur I.
Until now––perhaps, figuratively speaking.
Esmaeil Baqaei, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, cheekily implied that Trump today was Valerian and that he “had come to terms” with the Persians. It was, by all appearances, the first official reaction of any kind to Trump’s announcement.
The Iranian regime’s supporters certainly see it that way. Ehsan Salehi, a prominent political commentator in Iran & former government official, said on X this afternoon that, “The very one [meaning Trump] who said Iran must surrender tonight excitedly declared he’s reaching an agreement with the ‘Islamic Republic of Iran.’”
Screenshot: Ehsan Salehi’s X post, translated from Farsi to English X post, dated May 23rd, 2026.
Many pro-regime Iranians are already celebrating the country’s survival & are essentially calling it a victory against the U.S. & Israel. If the MOU terms as they are currently being reported prove true then, as Mark warned on X today, it would not only be potentially tantamount to a total U.S. strategic defeat in Iran, but also the worst defeat in American history.
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I SURRENDER?
Thus far, the reporting — from U.S., Middle Eastern & Iranian sources — suggests that Trump essentially caved to get a deal. Again, we will reserve judgment until we read it. But here is what is being reported so far:
1. The U.S. agrees to postpone any negotiations over Iran’s nuclear weapons program until a later phase that would come after the signing of the MOU. If so, then that is a major departure from Trump’s statement on April 26th when he said, “Iran can never have a nuclear weapon,” and that, “All our red lines come from that.”
2. Once the MOU is signed — if it is signed — then the U.S. & Iran would enter into either a 30-day or 60-day negotiating period to come to an overall comprehensive agreement to end the war. In that vein, as Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) noted on X, it is hard to believe Ahmad Vahidi, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), would “ever negotiate in good faith.” If that happens, as Wicker points out, “Everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!”
3. The U.S. would agree to end either immediately or on a phased-basis the U.S. Navy blockade of Iran’s western & southern seaports. Doing so would only play into the hands of the Iranian regime. As our friend Alex Plitsas noted this afternoon on CNN, Iran is having a “liquidity crisis.”
4. In that same vein, Iran purportedly would receive up to $25 billion in sanctions relief. It is not clear if this is just realizing frozen Iranian funds, lifting some sanctions, or a combination thereof. If Trump agrees to that, he’d be giving up his most effective leverage to date: Iran’s downward spiraling economy.
5. Missing in action? No mention of curtailing Iran’s offensive ballistic & cruise missile programs or its drone production. If this is the case, then Israel as Jon noted today on X is going to have a major problem with that.
6. Likewise, any mention of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis — especially Iran agreeing to end its funding, training & support of these terrorist militias — was missing in action as well.
7. Tragically, the Iranian people themselves are missing from this document — especially the valiant Iranian street protesters who helped create this strategic opening for the U.S. & Israel to act. How many more will be executed if Trump ends the war without truly ending the regime?
8. Purportedly, the U.S. would agree to end the war in exchange for Iran agreeing to a deal. If so, that’s hardly the ‘Art of the Deal’ type stuff. It is just the opposite; it would be putting the cart before the horse.
If this is true — or largely true — then it would be impossible to see it as anything other than Trump agreeing to surrender to Iran. In fact, it is so bad, that seemingly, only Steve Witkoff & Jared Kushner could have conjured it up.
Hopefully we are missing something. Especially since, as of now, this is not adding up. This is definitely NOT what “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” looks like if you are rooting for the U.S. & Israel to win.
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UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER
Hopefully, it won’t be needed. But let’s remind President Trump what unconditional surrender should look like in Iran.
Screenshot of Trump’s March 6th, 2026, Truth Social post declaring that there would “be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
Unconditional surrender begins with the complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. That means zero uranium enrichment going forward. No intercontinental ballistic missiles. No termination date.
It also means — as Trump said it should — the IRGC permanently ending its funding, training, arming & support of its ‘Axis of Resistance’ allies. Failure to do so, as Mark warned on Al Qahera News today, would destroy any real chance of lasting peace in Gaza & Lebanon if Hamas & Hezbollah survive to fight another day.
It must also mean true regime change. Trump — no matter what he claims — has not effected true regime changes. Yes, faces have changed, but the same hardline ideology that threatens peace throughout the Middle East remains.
Plus, as long as the IRGC & its paramilitary forces, especially the Basij, remain constituted, the people of Iran will never have a chance of achieving freedom. They have, tens of thousands of them, already paid too much in blood & treasure. Trump promised to “MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN!”
That can’t — and won’t happen if Khamenei & the Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remain in power.
Lastly, at least for now, the Strait of Hormuz must be fully open to free shipping sans any tolls imposed by Iran or Oman. That was the case before the war. It cannot be allowed to become the new normal after it is over.
If Trump fails to follow through on his “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!’ promise, then U.S. national security will be hurt on a global basis.
CHINA & ALLIES ALIKE ARE WATCHING
Team Trump must also bear in mind that if he is perceived as being weak in Iran, our other adversaries — especially China & North Korea — will perceive him as being weak on a geoglobal basis.
So too will our allies. Especially Israel.
If he leaves Israel hanging post-war –– meaning the Axis of Evil, Iran’s nuclear weapons program & ballistic missiles, cruise missiles & drones survive in whole or in part –– then no ally could easily trust the U.S. again if Washington called upon them for support in a future war here at home or elsewhere.
No sane country would risk getting left hanging like Israel would be if this scenario develops into reality.
HUMAN FOOTSTOOL
Trump should carefully consider his options and then circle back to ancient history. After Valerian lost to Shapur in Iran, he spent his remaining years — purportedly — serving as a human footstool to the Persian King.
History doesn’t like losers. Neither do Americans. And Iran is looking for a new gold-gilded footstool, American-style.
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ICYMI
Earlier today, Mark appeared on Al Qahera News TV in Cairo, Egypt. He discussed the latest on the U.S.-Iranian negotiations. This segment occurred prior to Trump’s announcement. Mark said it was unlikely Trump would back off of his redlines. The guest panelist in Islamabad, a former Field Marshal, agreed.
Mark & the guest panelist may soon be eating their words.
You can watch the entire episode here.
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Thank you for reading. We will see you next Tuesday or sooner if circumstances dictate. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Happy Memorial Day Weekend!
Jon & Mark
PS: Please forgive any rough edges! We didn’t want to leave you hanging until Monday, but our families are glaring at us!
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
I’m not gonna hold my breath waiting for the right way for this to end. No nuclear weapons, no further support for the proxies, no more ballistic missiles, freedom for the people. That’s right way for this to end. The US government keeps kicking the can down the road. 48 years of this is ridiculous.
Taco is an incompetent impostor who has no place at the head of the USA! In a word, he is a DISASTER in every respect.