INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
06.02.2026: THE BELARUS DEMONSTRATION
Greetings!
Well, as we observed this morning in The Washington Star, “Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is at it again.” This time the Kremlin’s puppet is trying to present a threat – the potential for a second front — along his border with Ukraine.
Photo credit: Presidential Executive Office of Russia. Vladimir Putin welcomed Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko to St. Petersburg’s Constantine Palace four months after launching his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ‘special military operation’ is in trouble. Momentum has shifted back to Kyiv’s favor in just about every facet of the war:
The ‘deep fight’ where Ukraine is targeting Russian revenue sources – specifically, oil;
In the ‘kill zones’ on the battlefields of Ukraine where Russia is losing upwards of 30,000 soldiers a month; and
Along their supply lines — where Ukraine is interdicting logistics bound for Crimea along the ‘land bridge,’ making life on the peninsula both intolerable and untenable.
And all of this has been delivered exclusively by Ukrainian manufactured weapons — via Fire Point. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky no longer asks permission to strike Russian targets, and Russia’s air defense network is not capable of defending its critical infrastructure.
That was made abundantly clear when Putin had to ask President Donald Trump to negotiate a ceasefire with Kyiv for his May 9th Victory Parade in Moscow.
Lukashenko has become a tool — actually, he’s always been a tool — for the Kremlin since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022. This latest demonstration is designed to get the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to reposition forces from the Donbas region to their northern border.
Lukashenko does what he is told. Putin has been bailing him out for years — and he expects a return on his investment.
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THE DEBT
As we wrote in The Hill back in December 2022:
Lukashenko owes his political existence to Putin, who secured his sixth presidential term in office. But with that loan shark-type assistance came a Mafia-like offer that Lukashenko “could not refuse” – loyalty and unbridled support to the Kremlin when called upon.
He got his initial “blood money” call in February 2022. As a result, Lukashenko allowed the Kremlin to launch its ground attack into Ukraine from Belarusian territory and permitted ballistic missiles to be launched from inside his country’s borders.
Belarus’s industrial military complex would go on to repair combat-damaged Russian equipment, supply Russia with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, and provide medical teams to tend to wounded Russian soldiers in secret field hospitals.
Putin has issued a ‘margin call’ on several occasions when his army falters on the battlefield. Each time Lukashenko answered the call — though just short of providing Belarusian ‘boots on the ground.’
In April, that meant allowing Russian drones to fly along routes over Belarus bypassing Ukrainian air defenses. Yurii Ihnat, head of communications for the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stated that infrastructure in Belarus may be assisting the operations. “There may be certain towers or relays in Belarus that help the enemy control their systems.”
Lukashenko was having Michael Corleone like moments from The Godfather Part III, “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.”
He understands his limitations. The war in Ukraine was not popular in 2022 — 90 percent of Belarusians opposed any intervention — and it’s not popular now.
Lukashenko struggles to find a balance between appeasing his master and not antagonizing his own people. Especially since his re-election in 2020 was contested.
And then there is Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya — political opposition leader and self-described Belarusian president-elect currently living in exile in Lithuania. She is trying to establish a separate Belarusian identity, pulling the country out from a Russian orbit and into the European domain.
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GUILT BY ASSOCIATION
Lukashenko started feeling the pressure of having all his eggs in one basket in 2023.
As long as Putin had his back — he felt secure. But what if something happened to Putin? What if Kyiv were able to drive Russia out of Ukraine? What if Putin were removed from power?
Would Ukraine, Poland, or NATO retaliate against Belarus for their support to Russia? Would he suffer a similar fate?
According to GlobalMilitary.net, Belarus ranks #59 on the Global Military Index with a score of 43.5 out of 100. But could its military defend Belarus?
Lukashenko wanted insurance — and turned to Moscow for tactical nuclear weapons. A deterrent — after all, up till then, no one had ever invaded a nuclear-capable country.
In an interview on March 25, 2023 Putin announced that Russia intended to deploy tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. In June, he confirmed they had been delivered to Minsk.
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MAY’S DEMONSTRATION
The Kyiv Post reported renewed threats of a Russian offensive on Ukraine from Belarusian territory in late May. As a result, Ukraine has reinforced its entire 1,085-kilometer border with Belarus.
According to Frantsishak Viachorka, adviser to the President of the Coordination Council of Belarus and head of the Belarusian democratic government-in-exile, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, “the Russian military command and Belarus are actively preparing infrastructure for military operations along Belarus’s border with NATO states and Ukraine.”
“In general, they are ready for escalation, and they are preparing for escalation. Drone and helicopter provocations are testing the capabilities of Western countries around the perimeter,” but he adds that “Putin currently does not have the resources to open a new front.”
As we stated in The Washington Star, this led to heated rhetoric between Lukashenko and Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Commander Robert Brovdi — who warned Lukashenko “against actions that could further draw Minsk into the war,” adding that Ukraine had “identified 500 potential targets in Belarus.”
Lukashenko responded that Belarus had identified a single, highly significant target in Ukraine, with ‘precise coordinates.’ Implying the use of a weapon of mass destruction — possibly a tactical nuclear warhead Russia delivered to Belarus in June 2023.
The comment came after Belarus and Russia held joint nuclear drills involving Russian weapons deployed in Belarus. Russian arsenals in Belarus include the Oreshnik missile system.
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MY BROTHER’S KEEPER
Putin has kept Lukashenko in office and Belarus financially afloat for years. Lukashenko is bound to his ‘brother’s keeper.’
That said, Lukashenko needs to be careful how far he takes his most recent demonstration — Putin’s record of living up to his end of the bargain has been catastrophic for the likes of Syria, Venezuela, Cuba and now Iran.
For ‘grandpa in his bunker’ — loyalty tends to travel ‘one way.’
Up.
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ICYMI
Mark was on Al Qahera News in Cairo Egypt earlier today. He discussed the near impossibility of achieving peace in Lebanon unless and until the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hardliners are ousted from power.
You can watch Part I here and Part II here.
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ICYMI #2
Jon was also on Al Qahera News today. He argued that Israel is pursuing its national security interests in Lebanon.
One of Jon’s fellow guests didn’t want to hear it. They claimed that he was legitimizing Israeli genocide. Jon pushed back hard arguing that Hezbollah, acting at the behest of the Islamic Republic of Iran, are to blame. Especially as IRGC-back proxy keeps firing missiles into northern and central Israel.
You can watch here.
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Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.