INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

04.13.2026

April 13^th, 2026

Greetings!

Largely lost in the war coverage in Iran — and subsequently due to the failed peace talks in Islamabad — is Israel’s ongoing military operation to expel Hezbollah forces & to occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River.

Photo credit: Odd Andersen / AFP. An Israeli self-propelled howitzer artillery gun fires rounds toward southern Lebanon.

It is the same fight — Hezbollah, after all, is funded & trained by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — and each operational theater is interconnected with the other.

Iran, as evinced during the negotiations, is desperately trying to save its Axis of Resistance allies — including Hezbollah, Hamas & the Houthis — in addition to ensuring the IRGC’s regime survival in the face of President Donald Trump’s blockade of southern Iranian ports & oil off-loading facilities.

It isn’t going to work.

***

Lebanon has had enough of Hezbollah. Notably, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on March 9^th — 10 days after the war in Iran started — accused Hezbollah of betraying Lebanon & acting “for the sake of the calculations of the Iranian regime.”

Photo credit: Unknown. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.

Despite criticizing Israel as well — that’s to be expected — Aoun called for direct negotiations between Lebanon & Israel. That hasn’t happened since 1993.

The anti-Hezbollah sentiment in Lebanon has been growing since last June. Notably, on June 16^th, 2025, three days after the 12 Day War started between Israel & Iran, a prominent Lebanese TV host — Walid Abboud — told Hezbollah to “Leave.”

He reiterated, “Yes, leave us, and take with you your weapons, your drones, your rockets, your mouthpieces, your flags, your Supreme Leader, your Iran and your Axis [of Resistance].” In doing so, he pushed back against Hezbollah’s claim “that it is here to save Lebanon,” while noting in reality they are “finishing Lebanon off.”

***

Fast forward to today.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that he will be meeting in Washington, D.C. Tuesday with the Lebanese & Israeli ambassadors to the U.S. Team IRGC — already reeling from Vice President JD Vance’s abrupt departure from Islamabad & facing a resumption of hostilities — can’t be pleased.

U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa will be joining Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter & Lebanese Ambassador Nada Hamadeh in the summit with Rubio.

Pressing its advantage against Hezbollah — and the IRGC by extension — a State Department official touted that “as a direct result of Hezbollah’s reckless actions, the Israeli and Lebanese governments are engaging in open, direct, high-level diplomatic talks brokered by the United States.”

The official made it clear that the purpose of the meeting is to “ensure the long-term security of Israel’s northern border and to support the Government of Lebanon’s determination to reclaim full sovereignty over its territory and political life.”

Translation?

The U.S. is intent on driving Hezbollah from Lebanon — or at least its armed factions. That’s why, in Islamabad one of Team Trump negotiating red lines is any continued IRGC funding, training or sponsoring of its proxies, including Hezbollah.

***

Many in the U.S. fail to understand that for decades reaching back to the 1990s, Hezbollah — as noted by the New York Post’s editorial board — has launched thousands of rockets & numerous terrorist attacks in Israel.

Mark has lived this reality. Imagine carrying a gas mask or always mentally noting where the nearest bomb shelter is. Imagine now raising a young family in that environment. That’s the reality multiple generations of Israelis have been living — especially those in northern Israel — for more than 35 years.

Imagine too — as the New York Post put it — “how Washington would react if China used proxy paramilitaries in Mexico to fire missiles at Dallas, Phoenix or San Diego.”

Far too often — especially in today’s media — journalists get the cause and effect wrong. Israel isn’t launching attacks on Hezbollah; it is reacting to them.

***

To hammer down on this cause & effect disconnect in the U.S., bear in mind Mark’s own personal experience. He lived through the genesis of what precipitated Israel’s first major incursion into Lebanon. On March 11^th, 1978, PLO terrorists operating from Lebanon perpetrated what would become known as the Coastal Road Massacre.

The PLO terrorists — using dinghies — made their way ashore from the Mediterranean. Their first victim?

Gail Rubin — a U.S. citizen — who was suntanning on the beach. The terrorists, believing they were blown off course to Cyprus, asked her where they were. When she answered Israel, Dalal Mughrabi who was leading the group, summarily shot her dead.

Photo credit: Unknown. Gail Rubin, an American photographer who was killed in the Coastal Bus Massacre.

They then made their way to the coastal highway and hijacked a bus. After wounding the driver & holding the passengers hostage, they began driving south firing indiscriminately at passing people & cars.

Enter Mark and his late father.

They were returning home to the coastal diplomatic community they lived in — Herzliya Pituach — from visiting a nearby kibbutz in central Israel where a family friend was showing them King Pigeons.

As they crossed the coastal highway — the same highway that the hijacked bus was barreling down toward them — they noticed a lot of Israelis were lining the sides of the highways and carrying Uzi submachine guns.

Sensing something was wrong, Mark’s father gunned the car & they quickly made their way to their house. No sooner than they got inside, they heard explosions & gunfire. The hijacked bus — just seconds after they crossed the coastal highway — flew by and was stopped by Israeli police using nails.

Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons. Coastal Road Massacre bus on display in Israel in an updated photograph.

Three PLO terrorists — temporarily — got away making their way into Mark’s neighborhood. One was captured hours later a block away from Mark’s family home.

In total, 35 people died — thirteen were children — and 71 wounded. It was the PLO then. Now it is Hezbollah & Hamas.

Israel, in response, just three days later, commenced Operation Litani & invaded Lebanon to clear out PLO terrorist camps & militants and ended up occupying southern Lebanon up to the Litani River.

Israel had enough of the PLO madness then. Now, it is Lebanon who has had enough of the Hezbollah & IRGC madness now.

***

We appear regularly on Egyptian TV as commentators or guest panelists. For the record — by the way, since we get asked — we never accept payment or any type of remuneration in kind for those TV appearances, so that our readers can be assured that our views, analyses & opinions are our own.

Mark, in particular, has been on multiple segments with Lebanese generals, members of parliament & analysts & has noted a discernible trend ever since Trump bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities last June in Fordow, Isfahan & Natanz.

They are saying out loud what they only used to say off air. They too want Hezbollah & the IRGC out of Lebanon.

The analysts in us are compelled to point out that this is only anecdotal. Certainly, Hezbollah still has a strong base of support in Lebanon.

Yet still, what once couldn’t be spoken openly is now being spoken loudly.

***

Lebanon, beyond doubt, deserves to live in peace & in control of all of its sovereign territory. However, the Lebanese government & its military — despite best efforts — is not strong enough to expel Hezbollah on its own. Not at least, while Iran & the IRGC can fund & supply it with weapons & munitions.

Under the terms of its October 2024 ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah committed to withdrawing from southern Lebanon to north of the Litani River. Thus far, Hezbollah — despite claiming that it has withdrawn — has refused to do so as they are also required to do so under the terms of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701.

Notably, Lebanon had set a deadline for Hezbollah to disarm by December 31^st, 2025. Ultimately, Hezbollah refused to do so.

Subsequently, on March 2^nd, 2026, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced, “a ban on Hezbollah’s military activities and restrict its role to the political sphere.” He also made it clear that all “Hezbollah military activities are “illegal” and called upon the security forces to “prevent any attacks originating from Lebanese territory”.

Lebanon — desperately — wants to be free of Hezbollah and by extension free from Iran and free from the IRGC.

The U.S. winning decisively in Iran would go a long way to achieving that aim. Ditto the U.S. holding firm to its red line that Tehran must sever all support for Hezbollah as well as its other IRGC-sponsored militias.

***

Until then, Israel is going to continue its ground operations to — yet again — militarily occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River.

For now, Jerusalem is curtailing its air attacks on Hezbollah targets elsewhere in Lebanon — including in Beirut and the Bekaa Valley — while Trump’s ceasefire negotiations with Iran play out.

***

Peace, as ever, is elusive in the Mideast. That said, rid the region of the Islamic Republic of Iran & the IRGC and it can get a lot closer to fruition — or at least for a while if Turkey doesn’t turn into the new Iran.

We will save that possibility for a future INTREP360 Intelligence Report!

***

Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.