INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
06.12.2026: Is this just more of the same with Iran?
06.12.2026: Is this just more of the same with Iran?
June 12th, 2026
Greetings and Happy Friday.
As Mark said last night, I have the con while he tends to his gravely ill Aunt.
Negotiations with Islamic Republic of Iran are kind of like the weather in Puerto Rico – or most anyplace lately – just wait 15 minutes and it will change. And they did repeatedly today.
Photo Credit: WANA News. Which Countries Have Been Briefed on the Iran–US Negotiations?
As we stated in The Washington Star yesterday, “In today’s world of strategic ambiguity, deception, cryptic messaging, disinformation, and taunting, nothing is certain until it happens.”
And now you can add ‘getting in the last word’ to the mix.
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IRAN’S 14-POINT PROPOSAL
Yesterday the President told us the U.S. was nearing a deal on peace talks with Iran, then pulled back from threats he made earlier to launch more military strikes and seize Iran’s oil infrastructure – Kharg Island.
See the President’s Truth Social message here:
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116732652997120164
Had two days of bombings, a third looming, and the threat to ‘take Kharg Island’ get Iran to capitulate? U.S. Central Command has the military forces necessary to conduct the mission in place.
Sounded like it. According Fox News Chief Foreign Correspondent Trey Yingst, Trump took a call from top Iranian officials during his interview with the President who “begged him to stop bombing.”
Photo Credit: Iran International. State media releases reported details of Iran-US draft deal
But then this morning, just as the President had announced a deal was within reach – for the 39th time if you’re counting, CNN did – the Mehr News Agency published what they described as a “14-point draft understanding between Iran and the U.S.,” which presented a much different deal than the one the President had proclaimed.
1. A permanent and immediate halt to fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon.
2. A US commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
3. The full lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days.
4. A US commitment to withdraw its forces from areas surrounding Iran.
5. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under arrangements set by Iran.
6. The suspension of sanctions on Iran’s oil sales, petrochemical products and derivatives, along with full Iranian access to the resulting financial resources.
7. A requirement for the United States and its allies to present plans for Iran’s reconstruction worth at least $300 billion.
8. A 60-day negotiating period aimed at reaching a final agreement covering nuclear issues and the complete removal of US primary and secondary sanctions, as well as United Nations Security Council and International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors resolutions.
9. A reiteration of Iran’s commitment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty not to produce nuclear weapons.
10. During the negotiation period, the United States would not deploy additional forces to the region or impose new sanctions.
11. The release of $24 billion in blocked Iranian funds during the 60-day negotiation period, with half of that amount to be made available to Iran before negotiations begin.
12. The establishment of a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement.
13. Approval of the final agreement through a United Nations Security Council resolution.
14. Final negotiations would not begin before the release of half of Iran’s blocked funds, the suspension of Iran’s oil sanctions and the lifting of the naval blockade. The final agreement would focus exclusively on the fate of enriched material and enrichment activities, sanctions relief and plans to rebuild Iran’s economy. Discussions regarding Iran’s missile program and support for resistance groups would be definitively excluded from the agenda.
Surely these were not the negotiation points that Witkoff & Kushner agreed to.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains in power? The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under arrangements set by Iran? Suspension of sanctions? The U.S. will pay $300 billion in reparations? 60 days to negotiate Iran’s nuclear ambitions? Release $24 billion in frozen assets? Involvement of the United Nations?
Please.
No mention of Iran’s unaccounted for 440.9kg of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, along with 184.1kg enriched up to 20 percent, or the enriched program in general. No mention of their ballistic missile and drone programs, or IRGC support to their proxies - other than an immediate halt to the fighting in Lebanon to save Hezbollah.
President Trump was quick to respond, posting on Truth Social that, “The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing. What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth. Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith. AMAZING! Also, their totally rebuffed Drone attack last night against Indian Ships leaving the Hormuz Strait is TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE. They better get their act together, and FAST!”
Vice President J.D. Vance would weigh in on X as well.
Axios political reporter and Middle East expert Barak Ravid reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said an agreement with the U.S. to extend the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear program “has never been closer.”
Until it wasn’t
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THE DEAL BREAKER - OR AT LEAST IT SHOULD BE
That changed in late afternoon when Consulate General of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Mumbai (@IRANinMumbai) and the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (@iribnews_irib) began posting comments by Araghchi on their X pages. Here are just a few:
We are dealing with people in the U.S. who do not honor their commitments; we must ensure that they have no opportunity to renege on their obligations.
If the provisions set out in the memorandum of understanding (MoU) are not implemented, negotiations for a final agreement will not take place.
We are the victor of this battlefield.
After signing the initial agreement, we give the US 60 days to fulfill its duties.
The first issue explicitly addressed & emphasized in this MoU is the U.S. naval blockade, which must be lifted.
The nuclear issue was not discussed in the first stage and we transferred it to the second stage.
At this stage, we did not discuss nuclear issues. However, in any case, our position regarding enriched materials is that if dilution is to take place, it will happen inside Iran, NOT in another country.
We will never leave Hezbollah in Lebanon alone, and the end of the war in Lebanon will include all fronts.
The Strait of Hormuz falls under the sovereignty of Iran and Oman. Its future management will not return to the pre-wa status quo. Tehran and Muscat have reached positive understandings and may soon unveil a joint plan for the Strait.
Under the memorandum of understanding, if signed, Iran’s frozen assets will be released.
None of our assets can remain blocked again.
A reconstruction plan has also been envisaged to compensate for the damages suffered by Iran.
These are pretty bold statements from a Senior Iranian Leader. Less than 48 hours ago Iranian senior leaders were on the phone “begging” the President to stop the bombing.
These comments pretty much cross three distinctive red-lines for the U.S. and Israel. No nuclear weapons, Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran will not provide support to their proxies – namely Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi rebels in Yemen and Shi’a militia in Iraq.
***
FULL CIRCLE
The past couple days are in tune with the the first verse of the Kinks 1984 hit, “Do it Again:”
Standing in the middle of nowhere
Wondering how to begin
Lost between tomorrow and yesterday
Between now and then
And now we’re back where we started
Here we go ‘round again
Day after day, I get up and I say
I better do it again
The President is chasing a deal that doesn’t exist. Whoever Witkoff & Kushner are negotiating with are not the decision makers. Simple fact here is that the MoU did not survive contact with the IRGC – Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi - despite the President’s belief that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei Junior had approved it.
Iran dangles and the White House bites. 39 and counting.
If any of above is accurate – the 14-point proposal or Araghchi’s comments, then the two countries are still miles apart.
Iran is adding to the President’s humiliation.
It’s time for the President to stand down Witkoff & Kushner. He needs to tell Admiral Brad Cooper to “secure the strait” and green light Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to remove the IRGC. Then tell his staff, “the only phone call I will take from Iran is from Vahidi telling me that he surrenders.”
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ICYMI #1: Early today, in our regular weekday foreign affairs column for The Washington Star, Mark and I examined the day’s back and forth between the Trump Administration and Iran – Deal or No Deal? Iran Is Playing Games With Trump To Stall the Clock.
Photo credit: Government of Pakistan Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif jumped into the fray Friday.
You can read it here. It is not paywalled at our request.
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ICYMI #2: Jon joined TVP World host Benjamin Lee this afternoon prior to Araghchi comments to discuss negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.
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Thank you for reading. We will see you Monday – have a great weekend.
Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
Déjà vu!!! I'm getting whiplash. 😜
As they say in Texas, Trump is “all hat and no cattle@.