INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
03.30.2026
March 30th, 2026
Greetings! It is Day 31 of the war in Iran & Capitol Hill—as ever these days—continues to politicize U.S. national security.
It doesn’t help that President Donald Trump—who often comes off as if he is reviewing a movie he just saw versus acting as commander-in-chief—keeps sending mixed messages and, in the process, keeps muddling the war’s strategic objectives.
Since Washington isn’t being clear—and shows no signs because of self-defeating partisanship of getting on the same page—we will try & fill in the blanks.
Please bear this in mind as we do. President Abraham Lincoln said it best: “A house divided against itself cannot stand.”
AI Image credit: Grok. President Abraham Lincoln angrily peering down on a divided Washington, D.C.
It also makes winning wars a lot harder.
Let’s get started.
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As the saying goes, “you can’t get there from here.” Yet, that is exactly where Secretary of State Marco Rubio is trying to take us.
Earlier today, Rubio posted the following on X: “Here are the clear objectives of the operation. You should write them down: 1. The destruction of Iran’s air force. 2. The destruction of their navy. 3. The severe diminishing of their missile launching capability. 4. The destruction of their factories.”
What happened to ensuring the complete destruction of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear weapons program? Ditto, where are we at in terms of securing 440.9 kilograms of highly enriched uranium up to 60%?
Likewise, what about insisting that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) end its support for fifteen-plus militant proxies spread throughout the Middle East—including Hamas, Hezbollah, & the Houthi rebels in Yemen?
Equally significantly—especially since they have yet to receive the promised green light from Washington or Jerusalem—what happened to enabling the Iranian people to rise up and take back their country thereby putting an end to the regime?
Plus, as legendary ABC sportscaster Keith Jackson would say, “The Granddaddy of them all,” when will Team Trump secure & reopen the Strait of Hormuz?
Finally, what happened to Trump’s ultimatum on Truth Social that “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
Lowering the bar & moving the goalposts are not the solutions—especially this early on in a war that is going well, militarily-speaking—Mr. President and Mr. Secretary.
***
Now, the White House is negotiating with Iran through Pakistan—and according to the President on Air Force One yesterday, the “negotiations [are] going extremely well.” Perhaps, but Steve Witkoff—a man who is in over his head—remains the point person.
Plus, it is likely Team Trump doesn’t know for sure who they are negotiating with or who for that matter is actually running the country & making the decisions. If it is, as widely rumored, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf—the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament—then bear in mind who this man is.
As our friend Goldie Ghamari—a former provincial Canadian member of parliament who was born in Iran—has oft said, he is a militant hardliner. He is not a peace maker. Earlier today, on X, she reminded us of who Ghalibaf was & is a man who cheerfully leads “Death to America!” chants in parliament as if it were the Iranian national sport.
Nor is Khamenei Junior likely in charge. He has not been seen since the day his father, wife & son were killed in the opening air strike of the war on February 28th. He has—purportedly—provided written statements, but no proof of life has been provided. He has transitioned into a modern day ‘hidden Imam.”
Whether Mojtaba Khamenei is dead or alive, conscious or not, is probably irrelevant at this point. For the IRGC—who are tasked with the mission of keeping the regime in power—it is sufficient to make him appear that he is alive & in charge so as to maintain their legitimacy & grip on the instruments of national power.
It is highly likely that it is the IRGC calling the shots—and that Ahmad Vahidi, its new head since his predecessor Mohammad Pakpour was killed on Day 1 of the war—is the man who is dictating them.
Photo credit: Majid Saeedi / Getty Images. Ahmad Vahidi, then a IRGC Quds Force commander, addresses students after the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on October 3rd, 2024, in Tehran, Iran.
Nominally, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, & Ghalibaf might appear to be in charge, but they are not. They may have the titles of office, but Vahidi & the IRGC have the guns.
***
Thus, while Trump tells us that “serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran” are on-going and that “great progress has been made,” the IRGC is not likely to submit. Their five-point rebuttal to the U.S. 15-point ceasefire plan is evidence enough.
There is nothing new & more reasonable about this caretaker regime save the faces. It is driven by the same deep-seated hatred for Israel & the U.S.
Yet, for some in Congress, Iran’s hatred of America & pursuit of nuclear weapons are not enough. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) posted on X today that Rubio’s objectives were “all tactical objectives. They are not strategies. Because there IS NO strategy … and that is based upon what I’ve learned in briefings – why we are badly and embarrassingly losing this war.”
Losing this war?
Really?
Sorry senator but that is complete nonsense & utter rubbish. If the U.S. were—militarily-speaking— losing in Iran, be assured, we’d be the first to say it. We wouldn’t hold back. Especially not when U.S. troops are in harm’s way.
Murphy—however—should have. During his X rant—or thread, rather—he foolishly proved himself highly uninformed as he vainly attempted to enlighten us with his nonexistent military prowess.
Instead of assessing the reality on the ground in Iran, Murphy focused on twisting Rubio’s stated war objectives into his own politically-charged spin. In doing so, it quickly became clear to us that Murphy doesn’t understand military doctrine.
What the senator fails to grasp is that this is not a 60-minute NETFLIX episode. It is a military campaign—defined by phases, condition setting and measurable metrics—whose military objectives are aimed at achieving a political goal: an end state.
If the senator would take a few moments—if he hasn’t already—to listen to any of the operational updates provided by Adm. Brad Cooper, the Commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), he would understand that.
***
That said, Trump controls the bully pulpit. He is in charge of messaging & he is coming up short in clearly defining the desired end-states of the war in Iran. Especially when it comes to acknowledging that regime change is a primary goal.
Or at least it was.
Trump said as much on February 28th, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu echoed his comment on Day 13 of the war saying one of his objectives was for Israel to “create the conditions for the Iranian people to remove … this tyrant regime.”
They laid the foundation to that end state with their opening strike of Operation Roaring Lion against then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound in Tehran. Ever since, they have relentlessly targeted the regime’s leadership—specifically its center of gravity: the IRGC and Basij paramilitary forces, whose missions are to keep the Iranian population in check.
***
Instead of seeking an off-ramp—a temporary solution in light of the upcoming mid-term elections in November—the President needs to make his case to the American people. He needs to explain why it is imperative to continue the mission.
Use the Oval Office. Urgently address the nation. Explain why U.S. national security is best safeguarded by defeating the Islamic Republic of Iran and toppling its regime. Explain as well why he’s acting against Iranian aggression & threats other U.S. presidents have tolerated over the past 47 years—including the killing of 1,600 plus Americans.
Likewise, make it clear he was willing to go it alone. In doing so, also explain why the long-term gains to U.S. national security outweigh short-term setbacks—political, economic or otherwise. Then—most importantly—explain why this justifies putting American service members in harm’s way to end the Iranian threat.
***
This should be an easy case for the president to make given everything the Islamic Republic of Iran has done over the past decades.
Yet—as Trump appears to have done yet again today—he keeps making the task at hand more difficult and—in the process—the messaging to the American people more muddled.
Reportedly, according to The Wall Street Journal, Trump is now willing to end the war in Iran without ensuring the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Wartime is no time for petulance. Especially presidential petulance.
Leaving the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control would be tantamount to losing the war. It would leave the Iranian regime in power—especially the IRGC—and it would create new and self-defeating strategic openings for China & Russia to dominate the Persian Gulf.
***
It’s high time for President Trump to rise above his ego, embrace humility, and lead & unite the country on a non-partisan basis during wartime. Likewise, it is high time senators such as Murphy stop politicizing the war for November electoral gain.
U.S. soldiers in harm’s way are not political capital or poker chips to be played in a partisan ‘Game of Thrones.’ They represent the best of our country & they deserve all of our support while they risk all for our country’s national security.
***
ICYMI!
Yesterday, Jon appeared on TVP World with our good friend & host Ashim Kumar to discuss the first month of the war in Iran.
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Yesterday, Mark appeared Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt to discuss the latest on the war in Iran & to explore Iran’s aggression against Arab states.
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Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
Definitely not the results or plan that should be taking place. Regime change isn't continuing to replace their leaders with more "moderate" types. The people of Iran need to reclaim the country. If we allow the radical proxies to continue as they have while controlling the straights and not securing the uranium and eliminating their nuclear ambitions, what the hell are we doing.