INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
04.07.2026
April 7th, 2026
Greetings!
Mark was largely off tonight, save for editing this as he is working on two special INTREP360 projects. Meanwhile, Jon—while traveling in Nashville—put together his thoughts for this special edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report on the proposed U.S.-Iran ceasefire & upcoming negotiations to be held in Pakistan from a military point of view.
Let’s get started!
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On Sunday, President Donald Trump told reporters, “If they [Iran] don’t do something by Tuesday evening, they won’t have any power plants and they won’t have any bridges standing.” Despite widespread backlash, it appears to have worked.
Photo credit: Brendan Smialowski / Getty. President Donald Trump speaks at the White House on April 6th, 2026.
The President & whoever is running the Islamic Republic of Iran, came to an agreement at the 11th hour today to fend off what he described as the consequence for not meeting his demands: “A whole civilization will die tonight.”
Why now?
The firepower brought to bear in Sunday’s successful rescue of an F-15E Weapons System Officer in the mountains of southwest Iran was an attention-getter. The U.S.’ ability to operate deep inside Iran likely rattled heads.
Photo credit: USAF. A U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle aircraft takes off for a mission during Operation Epic Fury, March 9th, 2026.
Coupled with the losses Monday in Tehran of Maj. Gen. Majid Khademi, the head of intelligence for the IRGC & Ashgar Bakeri, the leader of the IRGC’s undercover unit in its expeditionary Quds Force, at the hands of the Israeli Air Force, the remaining regime leaders likely were wondering who is next.
The proverbial straw that broke Iran’s in the negotiations—actually there were likely two of them—came today. First, it was Israel bombing key IRGC railway bridges across western Iran. Then it was CENTCOM airstrikes on Kharg Island—predominantly against military targets—that likely were enough to convince remaining regime leadership of the inevitable.
Screenshot credit: Unknown. Purported image from a video showing an Israeli airstrike on April 7th, 2026, on an IRGC railway bridge.
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Thousands of U.S. Marines, paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division & Special Forces teams—with close air support provided by U.S. Air Force A-10 Warthogs and Army AH-64 Apache helicopters—were preparing to secure the Iranian coastline from threats to shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This may have further convinced regime leadership.
The ceasefire agreement, brokered by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif & Field Marshal Asim Munir of Pakistan, mandates that the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately and completely open the Strait of Hormuz. In return, the President agreed to suspend bombing & attacking Iran for a period of two weeks.
Screenshot: Trump Truth Social dated April 7th, 2026.
Trump was looking for an off ramp, stating that the U.S. had exceeded all his military objectives. The Islamic Republic of Iran was simply trying to survive—and they may have, for now. But make no mistake—the chairs may have been rearranged on the deck of the Titanic, but this is the same regime. They will—in time, if left to survive—return to their nefarious ways.
Still to be hammered out before the President’s “definitive Agreement concerning Long Term PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East” are significant differences between the U.S. 15-point proposal and Iran’s 10-point proposal.
While it may be what Trump called a “workable basis on which to negotiate,” there is little room for any compromise on Tehran’s proposal. The English version of it—there are reports the Farsi version is substantively different—is as follows:
1. Permanent cessation of war on Iran, with no time limit.
2. Complete cessation of the war on regional allies [its proxies––Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi rebels, Shia militias], specifically mentioning Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
3. Lifting all primary and secondary U.S. sanctions on Iran.
4. Continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
5. Establishing a protocol and conditions to ensure safe, controlled navigation in the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian coordination.
6. Full payment of compensation to Iran for infrastructure reconstruction.
7. Release of all frozen Iranian assets and funds held by the United States.
8. Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region.
9. Acceptance of Iran’s nuclear enrichment rights.
10. Immediate ceasefire on all fronts upon approval of the above conditions.
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The Islamic Republic of Iran is not in a position to be making demands—and yet, the Trump Administration is going back to the negotiation table with a regime that still insists on retaining nuclear enrichment rights. Notably, that was one of the primary reasons Operation Epic Fury was initiated.
This is not a defeated Islamic Republic of Iran. They are acting as though they have won this war. Defeated countries do not make demands, they accept conditions—i.e. the U.S. 15-point proposal. See Germany & Japan post-World War II. For perspective, this proposal simply enables Iran to maintain undue influence throughout the region—and without a U.S. military in the region to keep them in check.
They will continue to threaten their Gulf State neighbors, Israel, and Iranian citizens —who, notably, somehow do not seem to get a vote in this matter. Much like Ukraine in their ‘peace deal’ with Russia.
This will not likely be resolved in 14 days—and if Steve Witkoff is at the helm, it will simply be prolonged for months, affording Iran time to reset, reestablish control, put down potential rebellions, destabilize the region, and ‘control’ the global oil market via the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is taking a play right out of the Russian playbook—and Team Trump is simply handing them a win instead of dictating terms.
As we urged three weeks ago in The Hill—you win by targeting and destroying the regime’s center of gravity.
CENTCOM’s military campaign was working. Leaving this regime severely wounded—but intact— is a strategic mistake.
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Late tonight, Trump told AFP that the U.S. had won a “total and complete” victory over Iran. Our take?
We wouldn’t open the champagne just yet.
Screenshot: Trump Truth Social dated April 7th, 2026.
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ICYMI #1!
Jon was honored for the first time to join Jennifer Rosenthal—the host of Fox News Radio’s Rundown Podcast—earlier this morning to discuss Iran’s transparent strategy of outlasting U.S. interest in waging war against the regime.
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ICYMI #2!
Mark appeared on Al Qahera network to discuss the latest on the war in Iran ahead of today’s ceasefire announcement.
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Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
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