INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
01.14.2026
January 14th, 2026
Greetings! It is near midnight late Wednesday evening as we begin to pen this edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report. For now, all appears to be quiet on the Iran front.
Intentional ambiguity likely best describes the moment.
War hawks, for most of the day, were taking notice of NOTAMs – Notices to Airmen – that at different times were closing the skies over Iran. Doves were encouraged that Iran began canceling them.
There was a crescendo building earlier today suggesting that a new round of hostilities was about to erupt between Washington & Iran. Yet we were skeptical. One, because, as we pointed out in yesterday’s INTREP360 Intelligence Report, nothing is adding up yet.
For example, why was President Donald Trump encouraging Iranian protesters to continue taking to the streets since there is no immediate clear military pathway for the Pentagon to ensure their protection?
What is he planning? Just pounding sand & empty buildings? Or something bigger, as is his modus operandi, such as going after Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and/or Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s president?
Each of those requires different levels of U.S. military force projection. Absent regime change, the U.S. likely still lacks sufficient military assets in the region to ensure their success.
Or, in the event things go sideways, to secure & protect the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Especially since there is no guarantee of success.
It is our assessment – and we could be wrong – that nothing will likely happen overnight. Striking Iran this time is more complicated.
Unlike last June, when Trump struck Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordo, Isfahan & Natanz, Khamenei wasn’t facing an existential crisis.
He is now.
That means Washington – or more to the point, the Pentagon – must be ready to protect the region from a Khamenei regime that is willing to go down in flames.
The Gulf States – especially Qatar & Oman – and Saudi Arabia are rattled at that prospect. All three countries have signaled that they are strongly against any U.S. strikes in Iran.
Tehran, to exploit their fear, warned Doha that if the U.S. strikes Iran, they will retaliate against Qatar. Money is king in the Gulf – or rather oil is! – and clearly Doha, Muscat & Riyadh got the message.
To that end, most of the Gulf media has been muted about the ongoing protests in Iran. Meanwhile, to their northeast, Iranian civilians keep getting murdered & harmed by Iranian security forces.
Earlier today, Trump said he was told that the “killing” has stopped. That’s highly unlikely. As Critical Threats notes, Khamenei sees the “protests as a proto-revolution that it must crush completely & immediately.”
If the killings have stopped – or are diminishing – (we are skeptical about either) then it could be because Khamenei is succeeding in bloodily crushing the revolution throughout Iran.
Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
Notably, as tallied by The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the number of reported protests across Iran decreased dramatically on January 13th. Significantly, the ISW noted that no new protests were reported on January 14th.
While they are likely declining, we just can’t know by exactly how much due to Tehran cutting off the internet for the last five days. Net Blocks – an internet monitoring company – reports that Iranian “online traffic has dropped to roughly one percent of normal levels.”
Protests are still likely happening. We just can’t see them. Ditto, tragically, the killing.
Yet what we can observe isn’t encouraging. Their absence – unless the U.S. intervenes – suggests that Khamenei may be getting the upper hand.
E.g. – and we rely heavily on the ISW here – thus far there is no evidence that the Basij have been widely deployed. Ditto the Artesh – Iran’ regular army led by Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi. Nor, significantly, any untrained elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The latter’s presence likely would indicate a last-ditch desperate effort by Khamenei to retain control.
Team Trump is reaching a point of no return. Either the U.S. intervenes or there is a high probability the Iranian protests fail.
The stakes are high & tomorrow in our weekly Thursday national security column at The Hill, we make the argument why Trump must back up his promises. If not, at least 2,403 Iranian protesters will have died in vain.
That’s just the number of confirmed. The actual number could be in the tens of thousands according to CBS News.
Meanwhile, the earth keeps spinning & there are other developments elsewhere affecting U.S. national security & that of our allies.
Let’s quickly cover them!
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NORTH AMERICA
It was Groundhog Day again today in the White House. During an exclusive interview with Steve Holland – the senior White House reporter for Reuters – Trump, when asked, yet again blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for the lack of progress in reaching a peace deal between Russia & Ukraine.
Photo credit: Reuters. Left to right: President Trump, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt & Steve Holland.
Let’s be candid here. That is just rubbish.
Zelensky, in close partnership with Steve Witkoff – Trump’s special envoy to Russia -- & Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, negotiated the 20-point peace plan that the U.S. submitted to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Putin rejected it & in doing so rejected Trump. Not Zelensky.
It is Moscow that continues to be maximalist in its demands, not Kyiv. Trump’s tactic of blaming & then asking more of Zelensky every time Putin says “nyet!’ is getting old. Russia is the primary problem here, not Ukraine.
As Mark emphasized on War & Politics 24 earlier this week, Putin is down for the count. He’s out of options. His economy is stagnating.
Putin is also trapped by a lack of manpower. As Mark noted, unemployment in Russia is now only 2.1%. That’s what happens when you kill or injure 1,221,940 of your workforce chasing a senseless ‘special military operation in Ukraine.
Consequently, Putin can’t increase military spending. He doesn’t have enough skilled labor to do so. That’s why Russia’s own state budget for defense spending is essentially flat for the next three years.
Plus, it is not going to get any better. As NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte observed yesterday, Putin is losing 20,000 to 25,000 troops a month in Ukraine. Not wounded, but “Dead!” Plus, he’s now been at war longer with Ukraine than Soviet leader Joseph Stalin was with Nazi Germany during World War II.
Trump has all the winning cards. Yet, he won’t play them against Putin. Just Zelensky. That has to change & change fast.
Elsewhere, south of the Rio Grande, Claudia Sheinbaum, the president of Mexico, announced that she talked to Trump for 15 minutes over the weekend.
She rejected his standing offer to send U.S. troops to Mexico to “confront [drug] cartels on the ground.” Sheinbaum made it clear that they did not talk about Cuba & oil shipments despite rumors otherwise circulating on X.
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SOUTH AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s acting president, said in a statement she is continuing to release “prisoners detained under former President Nicolás Maduro’s rule in what she described as “a new political moment.” Meanwhile, Trump is scheduled to meet with Maria Corina Machado – Venezuela’s opposition leader – tomorrow at the White House.
It’s as if he’s trying to recreate a White House version of “The Apprentice” to get the two to compete.
That might make for good TV but not geopolitics.
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EUROPE
In today’s most underreported story, the tiny eastern European country of Moldova is thumbing its nose against Putin. Over the weekend, Maia Sandu, the President of Moldova, said she is in favor of her people reuniting with neighboring Romania.
Sandu’s comments come on the heels of Russia trying to interfere with Moldova’s election last October. Moscow failed & the country – once part of the Soviet Union – is on a glide path to join the European Union.
Reuniting with Romania is a clever idea. It would be a backdoor way of getting into NATO.
Putin continues to be frustrated by Sandu. 1,500 Russian troops are trapped in Transnistria – a tiny separatist region wedged between Moldova & Western Ukraine.
We’ve long warned about Putin’s designs on the small country. Indeed, early on during the war in Ukraine, we cautioned that Putin invading Moldova was high on his list.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s energy crisis is worsening. Zelensky “declared a state of emergency in the energy sector.”
Photo credit: Yan Dobronosov / Global Images Ukraine. Kyiv, January 10th, 2026, after a Russia attack left large parts of the city without electricity, heating & water in subzero winter temperatures.
Much of this suffering could be avoided if only Europe – especially if the so-called “Coalition of the Willing” – would implement a no-fly zone over Western Ukraine. Tragically, on that front, all we are hearing is crickets from Paris, Berlin & London.
***
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA
Witkoff announced earlier today that the U.S. is beginning phase two of the peace framework signed by Israel & Hamas last October in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. Witkoff stated that it entails establishing a “transitional technocratic Palestinian administration” and starting the “demilitarization and reconstruction of Gaza.”
Ali Abdel Hamid Haath – former deputy minister of Palestinian planning – was announced as the head of the technocratic committee.
Good in theory. But Hamas still must be disarmed. Plus – and it’s a big plus – the remains of Ran Gvili have yet to be returned to Israel. Jerusalem is refusing to fully reopen the Rafah commercial crossing between Gaza & Egypt until his body is recovered.
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INDO-PACIFIC
Trump’s new National Security Strategy – which we analyzed here – continues to view China as the country’s pacing military & economic threat. Today, that pace just got faster, especially on the economic front.
Beijing reported a whopping trade surplus of $1.19 trillion in 2025. That’s a remarkable 20% increase over 2024.
Much of the growth was achieved by by-passing Trump’s tariffs.
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WHAT WE ARE READING!
US military intervention in Iran may begin within 24 hours, European officials say. Sam Halpern, reporting for Reuters.
Iran taunts Trump with assassination threat, shares chilling image from Pennsylvania rally. Alexx Altman-Devilbiss, reporting for KOMO TV News.
Denmark increasing military presence in Greenland. Max Rego, reporting for The Hill.
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Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.
Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.