INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

02.27.2026

February 27^th, 2026

Greetings! If anyone thought Kyrylo Budanov—Ukraine’s former-head of the main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense—would consider a bad deal’ with Russia over the Donbas for peace, they need to think again.

Photo credit: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service. President Volodymyr Zelensky (left) & Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the Office of Ukraine’s President meeting on January 2^nd, 2026.

Budanov—who is now the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine—is adamant that Ukraine will retain its territories, confidently stating that, “All occupied territories will remain temporarily occupied territories, and they will inevitably be liberated over time.”

Far from capitulating to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Budanov—perhaps the man Moscow fears the most in Ukraine—wants to see Russia dissolved & replaced by “several regional nation-states.”

It’s as if Budanov is saying the 1990s called & are advising Europe to help Ukraine bring about the collapse of the Russian Federation—just as NATO once did in winning the Cold War to bring an end to the Soviet Union on December 26^th, 1991.

But what did we expect?

Budanov is a bold, audacious, & fearless leader. He embodies the 5^th stanza of the U.S. Army Ranger Creed: “Surrender is not a Ranger word … and under no circumstances will I ever embarrass my country.”

The Kremlin fears him—and his boss, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Unlike Western leadership, these two modern-day warriors do not shrink from the occasion or take flight. Is there any wonder why Russian negotiators want the U.S. in the room?

Zelensky & Budanov stand their ground, fight back, and they take names while kicking ass on a multi-domain basis. Zelensky personified this ‘take no prisoners’ mindset when he told the Biden Administration, “I need ammunition, not a ride!”

That’s about as American as it gets. Don’t forget, as Gen. George S. Patton said, “Americans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser!”

Photo credit: National Portrait Gallery, Smithsonian Institution; gift of Major General George S. Patton, U.S.A., Retired, and the Patton Family; frame conserved with funds from the Smithsonian Women’s Committee. Gen. George S. Patton, painted by Boleslaw Jan Czedekowski.

Budanov—like Patton before him—is a proven winner & a force to be reckoned with as Ukraine fights for its national survival & identity.

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How so?

During the first round of trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi, when a Russian negotiator would begin talking about the territories, Budanov purportedly would interrupt them & ask for their last name, then would write something down in his notebook. After that, the Russians stopped talking about territories.

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This is the same man who led Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) special forces Blackhawk helicopter insertion into the eastern city of Pokrovsk last November.

Photo credit: Oliver Carroll. HUR special forces disembarking from a Blackhawk Helicopter in Pokrovsk.

His mission?

To show the world that Putin’s assertion that he had captured the city was pure fantasy & nothing more than disinformation intended to create a false narrative that Russia was winning the ground war.

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Budanov also demonstrated to the world that Ukraine was capable of conducting covert military operations. In June 2025, the Security Service of Ukraine struck deep into the Russian interior using unsuspecting Russian drivers to deliver over 100 drones from the roofs of prefabricated cabins on the back of their trucks.

Once emplaced, the drones targeted & hit Russia’s strategic bomber fleet at four separate airfields in an operation codenamed Spiderweb. 41 Russian planes were damaged or destroyed.

The Wall Street Journal characterized the operation as “18 months of meticulous planning, daring subterfuge, high-tech gadgets, cool nerves—and a dollop of luck.”

In our opinion—Spiderweb—is second only in terms of ingenuity & daring to Mossad’s clandestine operation targeting Hezbollah leadership & operatives in Lebanon with explosive pagers in September 2024.

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Last week, during his speech at the Justice Conference in Kyiv, Budanov stated the obvious: “It is no secret that negotiations [with the Russians] aren’t going smoothly, but we are clearly moving forward and approaching a point when all parties will need to make final decisions: continue this war or move toward peace.”

And while the Kremlin maintains its maximalist demands, he believes “The Russian negotiating team understands that it will be forced to accept security guarantees for Ukraine from the United States, whether they like it or not.”

That said, for now, he noted, “The Kremlin has not changed its goals in this war. Its goal is not specific regions, but all of Ukraine.”

Russia is not going to be talked off that position; rather, they will eventually need to be pushed off it. The West simply must do more. Cowering to Russia demands & waiting for their consent—some European countries have admitted they won’t send peacekeepers to Ukraine unless Putin agrees—will not bring the war to an end.

Budanov concluded by saying, “Ukraine has clearly defined its position. Accountability is inevitable. Justice is systemic. And security, ultimately, is reliable. I want to remind us all: the guarantee of justice, the establishment of peace, the restoration of trust, and the safeguarding of our future is our Ukrainian army. As long as the Ukrainian soldier holds the front, both the rear and every citizen of Ukraine remain safe.”

That does not sound like a man prepared to accept a bad deal, or one who would advise his President to do so either.

***

As we & many others—including retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges—have argued, retaining the Donbas region ensures that Ukraine remains safe & viable as a sovereign state going forward after the war.

Plus, Ukraine now has a whole new set of tools in its tool kit to take the fight directly to Russia. Everything is in play. They are leveling the playing field at a time when Russia’s air defense network is at its most vulnerable.

Ukraine’s domestically produced FP-2 Frontline Strike Drone, FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile & FP-7 ballistic missile provide Kyiv with additional capability to strike Russian targets throughout the depth of the battlefield—including in the Donbas, southern Ukraine, Crimea & deep inside the Russian motherland.

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Getting Team Trump to apply pressure on Russia to accept a ceasefire—at least in the near term—does not seem likely. The situation in Iran likely ensures that.

Instead, the onus is on Ukraine. Ditto Brussels if only it will finally act. As Hodges noted last week, “Europe has the power but not the political will” to be decisive.

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Until—if ever—Europe finds it, Ukraine is largely on its own. Zelensky isn’t giving up. Nor is Budanov. As Zelensky told Martha Raddatz—ABC News Chief Global Affairs Correspondent—last September in the aftermath of the President Donald Trump & Putin summit in Alaska, “For us to survive is a victory.”

To that end, continue to expect the unexpected from the ever coy & ingenious Budanov. Survival comes first, but Ukraine’s end state has always been to win.

That’s why Budanov made it clear that Kyiv will not accept a “Korean scenario.” As he pointedly said last week, “I am confident that the Ukrainian people will reject any proposals concerning our land. All occupied territories are only temporarily occupied and will inevitably be liberated in time.”

The Ukrainians are innovative, adaptive, & resourceful. They will find a way to be victorious in the long run.

***

IRAN UPDATE

Only Trump knows when & if but it feels like we are on the eve—be it a day or two or three—of D-Day in Iran.

The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike force is taking up its position in the eastern Mediterranean. KC-135 Stratotankers have been moved out of Al Udeid—a strategic CENTCOM military base in Qatar.

Airfields across Europe, the Middle East & Israel are jam-packed with U.S. aerial refueling aircraft. Ditto F-35A stealth fighters, F-15E Strike Eagles, & F-22A Raptors which have been spotted at Ovda Air Base in Israel.

Embassies from around the world are urging their citizens to leave the region—especially if they are in Iran & Israel. Plus, most significantly, Trump is signaling he has run out of patience negotiating with Iran.

As we’ve noted frequently here, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is likely betting that he & his regime can survive a new round of U.S. & Israeli military strikes—just as they did after the 12-Day War last year.

Maybe. Maybe not.

Time—likely sooner than later—will tell. One thing, for now, is certain. This will not be a one & done strike. To ensure mission success—whether or not regime change is achieved—it will take scores of U.S. & Israeli strikes.

Stay tuned.

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Thank you for reading! We will see you Monday unless war breaks out between the U.S. & Iran over the weekend. If hostilities commence, we will pen INTREP360 Flash Signals throughout the weekend as warranted.

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Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.