INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
03.19.2026
March 19th, 2026
Greetings! For some time, we’ve argued that the West has forgotten how to win. Kinetic conflicts—when they arise—are now frequently framed as potential escalatory crises that must immediately be stopped at any cost.
Even if that cost entails a high strategic or tactical price.
Winning is rarely the overarching modus operandi. Instead, urgent calls—some verging on the hysterical—are bandied about demanding immediate de-escalation or insistence that an off-ramp be found as quickly as possible.
Photo credit: John Gannon. Iwo Jima Monument in Washington, D.C.
However, perpetual diplomacy—laudable as the would-be peacemakers are—is far too often being weaponized by the West’s most dangerous enemies.
Their intent isn’t a lasting peace. It is to live & survive to fight another day—and at a future price to the West that will be far higher in blood & treasure.
Plus—as if this isn’t bad enough—the West’s foes are aided & abetted by partisan political factions seeking to undermine their opponents. This politicization of national security is proving to be a formula for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
In the U.S. we’ve sadly witnessed this self-defeating partisanship play out over the past two major conflicts—Ukraine & the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Far too many Republicans—after President Donald Trump’s reelection in November 2024—did this to undermine the West winning in Ukraine. And now—equally egregiously—far too many Democrats & right-wing nut cases like Tucker Carlson & Candace Owens are doing the same in Iran.
Both examples—especially in the context of U.S. national security—are why we both despise partisan politics & intentionally avoid commenting on domestic politics in our columns, TV appearances & INTREP360 Intelligence Reports.
We have—and please forgive us for repeating it yet again—only one guiding star: U.S. national security & that of our allies.
Achieving it means learning how to win again. Not just in Ukraine, but in Iran & the Strait of Hormuz as well.
Mark is back—his napkin notes penned over the past few days are at the ready—so let’s get started making the case for why the West must win against Russian President Vladimir Putin & Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Axis of Evil.
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Let’s start with Ukraine. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s testimony yesterday admittedly triggered us. Especially the part where she testified that the “during the past year the [intelligence community] assesses that Russia has maintained the upper hand in the war against Ukraine.”
Note the word play: “during the last year.” You don’t assess the current status of any given war solely in terms of what happened over the course of a year.
While war trendlines are dispositive, they are not conclusive. Particularly given recent Ukrainian advances & Russian setbacks.
Dynamics change. Consider Elon Musk cutting off unauthorized Russian military use of Starlink. Prior to being blocked, according to data we compiled from the Institute for the Study of War, average Russian gains per week—albeit already minuscule—between Christmas Day 2025 & February 4th, 2026—the date Starlink stopped access—peaked at 141-163 square kilometers in the Donbas.
Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
Post Starlink lock-out—despite finally seizing control of the strategic city of Pokrovsk after nearly 22 months of fighting—Russian advances have largely ground to a halt. Meanwhile, according to the Kyiv Independent, Ukraine “for the first time in years … had liberated more territory than it lost to Russian occupation in February thanks to a series of counterattacking operations on the southern front line.”
Yet—significantly—that context was missing from Gabbard’s congressional testimony. Instead—to any well-informed viewer—her assessment, wittingly or not, mirrored the Russian narrative that Putin winning in Ukraine is inevitable.
Not only is it deceiving, but it also plays into this mentality that has taken root in Western thinking that winning wars is no longer possible—or desirable. That type of self-defeating mentality in Washington must stop.
Ukraine is a winnable war—and, contrary to Team Trump’s assertion, it is an American war in the sense that it is an assault on the post-World War II order that Washington has dominated since the end of the Cold War.
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Nonetheless—maddeningly—President Donald Trump refuses to win it just as former President Joe Biden refused to do so as well with his ‘just enough’ approach to aiding Ukraine which turned it into a ‘forever war.’
Granted, both presidents had very different reasons. Jake Sullivan—Biden’s national security adviser—convinced Team Biden that Putin’s nuclear bluffing was real. As such—and we loudly disagreed with this at the time—Ukraine turned into a ‘forever war.’
Trump’s rationale—arguably just as naïve, if not more, than Biden’s was—is that Russia is magically going to turn into a U.S. ally to counter the rise of China.
Trump’s carrot?
Economic deals with Europe & the U.S.
Sounds good on paper but Brussels—largely driven by Germany & France—tried that approach with Putin & it ended in Putin invading Ukraine, not once but twice. Plus, Europe—by buying Russian oil & l liquefied natural gas—paid for his invasions (or at least the military expenditures behind it).
Just as the notion of a 2.0 version of the failed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was a bad idea in Iran, it is equally foolish to think that a 2.0 version of integrating Russia’s economy into Europe’s & the U.S. is going to work.
It won’t.
Not just because the past is prologue but because significantly the U.S.—a democracy—and Russia—a dictatorship—are not compatible long-terms allies. Putin—more than just us writing this—gets that & he is not going to burn his bridge with Xi.
Need proof?
Russia—in defiance of Trump—is shipping oil to Cuba & the Kremlin is actively providing targeting data to Iran to strike U.S. military assets & soldiers in the Gulf States. If Putin were the least bit interested in a ‘deal’ with Trump, he wouldn’t do either.
Instead—clear as day—Putin is doubling down on supporting his Axis of Evil allies—and that includes standing by Xi.
Even if Putin wanted to strike a deal with Trump, he knows—as any American knows—one day in the future the White House will be occupied by a Russia hawk. For now, Putin has a permanent alliance with China.
Why risk losing for a temporary deal with Trump? Spoiler: Putin won’t.
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Last June—in our weekly Thursday national security column at The Hill—we argued that winning World War III against Russia & China begins in Iran and ends in Ukraine. As it turned out, it did start in Iran with Trump bombing Tehran’s nuclear weapons program in Fordow, Isfahan & Natanz but it took a detour in Venezuela.
Now, we are back to Iran.
We can’t emphasize—or reiterate—this enough. Winning in Iran is critical to winning in Ukraine. They are—most assuredly—the same fight.
Democrats—to their great credit—stood by Ukraine in the aftermath of Putin launching his so-called ‘special military operation.’ Indeed, so too did many Republicans.
Now—more than ever—we need that same level of bipartisanship to ensure that the war in Iran is won, and the Strait of Hormuz is forever freed from being held hostage by the Islamic Republic of Iran.
NOT because of the politics of it. Others can sort that out. Rather because winning in Iran makes it easier to win in Ukraine.
Undoubtedly, we will fail in making this call. The November midterms are now likely too close & Washington being Washington will likely put partisan politics—unlike us!—over our nation’s national security.
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That said, we will do so at our nation’s own peril. If the ruling regime in Iran is allowed to survive & reconstitute itself & its military—especially its nuclear weapons & ballistics missile programs—then the U.S. will have lost & the Axis of Evil will have won in one of the most strategic & oil-rich regions of the world.
Winning for us—be it in Iran or Ukraine—isn’t about Democrats, Republicans or independents. It is solely about Americans—ditto our NATO allies—and our collective national security triumphing over Russian & Chinese tyranny.
Most assuredly, winning is as American as apple pie. To borrow & paraphrase the Army motto adopted in 1778—This We’ll Defend—the concept of the U.S. winning & defending in Iran & Ukraine should be embraced regardless of who you vote for in November.
Winning isn’t easy. It’s hard as the U.S. soldiers on Iwo Jima & elsewhere knew all to well in winning World War II.
It’s our turn to lift that American flag.
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ICYMI!
Earlier today, our weekly 7:00 AM ET national security column at The Hill in Washington, D.C., focused on the U.S. military’s Achilles’ heel.
Photo credit: Getty.
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Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
Thank you for this masterful article! Let's not forget to mention that war is one of the pillars of Putin's regime. After Ukraine, Putin will come to the aid of 'oppressed Russian speakers' in the Baltic states: he has already begun his 'infiltration' in Narva, Estonia.