INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
01.29.2026
January 29th, 2026
Greetings! It is Thursday & as we sweep the globe tonight, it is as if the world is caught up in one big & elaborate kabuki theater production.
Stages are being dressed before our eyes. Trapdoors are being sprung into place & the platforms—representative of this spinning earth of ours—are revolving faster & faster. Russia, China, Iran, Ukraine, Israel & the U.S. are the principal actors.
Photo credit: japan-guide.com. Kanamaruza Theater, Kotohira, Japan.
War & peace are at stake. All that remains is for us to chart & begin understanding this fast-unfolding story.
Let’s get started doing just that.
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NORTH AMERICA
Tonight, speaking of theater, President Donald Trump—ever the theatrical showman (a key element of kabuki)—set the tone of our drama this evening outside of the newly renamed The Trump Kennedy Center. In many ways, he is the omnipresent narrator— Tayū (太夫) in kabuki parlance—of the sprawling global play.
When asked about the U.S. military build-up in the Middle East, Trump responded that, “We have a lot of very big, very powerful ships sailing to Iran right now—and it would be great if we didn’t have to use them.”
Team Trump is demanding that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei agree to zero enrichment of uranium along with the complete dismantlement of its nuclear weapons & ballistic missile programs.
Washington is also insisting that Tehran put an end to its support of Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis & other Iranian-backed proxies in Syria & Iraq.
All remain hard redlines for Khamenei.
For now—at least—Khamenei appears to be betting he can survive any U.S. military strikes on Iran. Khamenei, in that regard, is one of the villains of this play. Not just a sinister character but an evil one—or jitsuaku (実悪),
Photo credit: Getty. Example of a jitsuaku.
In kabuki theater, the jitsuaku are cold-blooded. To accent their abject evil, they cover their faces in white make-up & dark lines.
More than 6,000 Iranian protesters have died since December 28th when the street protests erupted in the bazaars. 17,000 more deaths are under active investigation by the widely respected U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA).
That’s as cold as it gets. Khamenei is a jitsuaku incarnate.
Earlier, during comments at his cabinet meeting at the White House, Trump announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin—yet another jitsuaku in our expanding play—had agreed to his personal request that the Kremlin suspend drone & missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian energy targets. Putin said Moscow would do so for a week.
That’s good, relatively speaking. People are suffering. However, as we pointed out here yesterday, Putin’s intentional targeting of Ukrainian civilians—all flagrant war crimes—continues to be unaddressed by Team Trump.
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CARIBBEAN
Late tonight, Trump issued an executive order declaring that Cuba is a threat to U.S. national security & foreign policy. In doing so, he noted that Cuba has aligned “itself with—and provides support for—numerous hostile countries [&] transnational terrorist groups.”
He specifically named Russia, China, Iran, Hamas & Hezbollah.
Notably, Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on any country “directly or indirectly” supplying Cuba with oil.
Earlier today, the Financial Times reported that Cuba only has 15 to 20 days of oil reserves given “current levels of demand and domestic production.” Only yesterday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told senators during testimony on Capitol Hill that he’d “love to see” regime change in Havana.
Trapdoors often advance the plot in kabuki theater. Rubio, perhaps in his mind seeing himself as a hero—or a tachiyaku (立ち役)—is springing this trap to topple Miguel Díaz-Canel—the president of Cuba—and his regime.
Photo credit: public domain. Example of a tachiyaku, left, in bold red kumadori lines & heroic robes, confronting a villain
.
Rubio’s messaging is likely twofold. He is signaling to Díaz-Canel that his time is up—and reminding Khamenei in Iran that Team Trump––rightly or wrongly—is not afraid of pursuing regime change.
***
EUROPE
Enter Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. From a global leadership standpoint, he is––arguably––the only noble tachiyaku on the world stage.
He excels in using the hanamichi (花道)—a raised platform in kabuki theater—to enter, hold or exit the stage be it in capital cities across the globe or popping up in the city center of Kupyansk in northeastern Ukraine after Putin falsely claimed it Russian forces controlled the strategic border town.
Photo credit: Shōchiku. Example of a hanamichi—a raised platform—in the Minamiza kabuki theater in Kyoto, Japan.
In biblical terms Zelensky uses the hanamichi like Daniel used the lion’s den to confront Putin and time & again provide divine-like deliverance for Ukraine. Putin, in direct contrast, is afraid of the hanamichi. Long-rumored to use body doubles, Putin is personally risk-averse.
In other words—a coward.
That’s why Putin’s offer yesterday for Zelensky to meet him in Moscow for peace talks is disingenuous. Despite Russia claiming they’d guarantee his safety, Zelensky—if he accepted—likely would never leave Russia alive.
Increasingly—to his great credit—Zelensky is using the hanamichi to confront Europe’s leaders & their lack of boldness in coming to Ukraine’s aid. Europe can immediately act—as we’ve often argued here & elsewhere—by implementing a no-fly zone in western Ukraine. Doing so would protect a large portion of the country’s energy sector.
Alas, not.
The European Union can’t even agree on accelerating Ukraine’s accession to the Brussels-based economic & security alliance. Earlier today, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, while speaking in Berlin, said that Ukraine joining the EU by January 1st, 2027, is “out of the question.”
Really?
Is this the same Merz who only late last year boldly said that “The fate of Ukraine is the fate of Europe”?
If Ukrainian soldiers are dying protecting Europe’s fate—and dying protecting the EU’s economy—Brussels can & must accelerate Kyiv’s membership. This isn’t peace time. It is wartime. Brussels must start showing more urgency.
Especially since Moscow continues signaling that they are not interested in a lasting peace in Ukraine. Nor are they accepting of the post-war security guarantees as drawn up between the U.S., Europe & Ukraine over the past month.
Earlier today, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed them. He was quoted as saying, “If the “security guarantees” for Ukraine are meant to preserve the Zelensky regime on some part of former Ukraine & continue using the country as a bulwark against Russia, then it should be clear: such guarantees cannot deliver reality security.”
In keeping with today’s kabuki theme, Lavrov qualifies as the dōkegata (道化方)—the bumbling comic—but not in a funny way. His contribution is one of morbid comedy. His punchlines? They are always intended to be deadly.
***
MIDDLE EAST
Iran is at center stage of this act. Despite a significant build-up of U.S. military power in the region, Khamenei is remaining defiant.
The Institute for the Study of War is assessing—and we agree with them—that Iran is attempting to “deter U.S. military action” in three ways. One, is deploying land & sea forces in & around the Strait of Hormuz. The second is rebuilding its nuclear weapons program––and relocating much of it even deeper underground than Fordow.
The third?
Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
Seeking Chinese & Russian assistance.
Earlier today, an Iranian government Airbus A321 was tracked flying from Tehran to Moscow. It was not clear who was onboard. It is safe to say that whoever was on that plane was tasked to plead for Putin to intervene to stop Trump from attacking Iran.
They may not like what they hear. TASS reported that Moscow is preparing to evacuate its staff from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant. This is definitely an indicator of where things are headed; however, it is not definitive.
Photo credit: Planet Labs PBC. Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, in Bushehr Province, Iran.
Meanwhile—and bear with us as we bring the kabuki theme to a close here—the Gulf States continue to try & act as Kuroko—the stagehands dressed in black who are intended to simply be ignored even though they appear in scenes.
Photo credit: public domain. Example of three Kuroko clad in black. They are stagehands who assist with props, etc.
Saudi Arabia & the United Arab Emirates have told Washington that they will not allow U.S. military forces to use their airspace. They fear Iran will retaliate against them—just as Iran will against Israel—in the event that Trump orders an attack.
While their fears are justified, their attempt to play it safe likely will be in vain. Khamenei—this time—is likely to strike the Gulf States & their oil & energy infrastructure in a last-ditch attempt to save his regime from collapse.
Being ignored in kabuki theater is one thing. It rarely works out in real life. Especially when Tehran knows neither country would mind if Khamenei fell.
***
INDO-PACIFIC
We are nearly out of space. But quickly Beijing is part of this kabuki play as well. China, alongside Russia, signed a trilateral strategic pact with Iran. While it briefs well on paper, it likely comes too late to spare Iran what is coming.
Still, we can’t ignore that Chinese President Xi Jinping was willing to lay down a marker. But it begs the question, was the marker for a different reason? Is Xi hoping Team Trump bites in Iran thus paving the way for him to move on Taiwan?
Time will tell. If the U.S. gets bogged down in Iran over an extended period of time, Beijing certainly will have options—including simply blockading Taiwan.
***
Stay tuned! The final act is still in the making!
Postscript: As we close this out, there are reports multiple B-52H Stratofortress bombers are en route to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
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Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.
Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.