INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
04.28.2026
April 28th, 2026
Greetings!
As Iran continues to assert what leverage the Trump Administration has given it — the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for business. Elsewhere, the sniveling persists by those standing on the sidelines — mostly Europe — waiting for someone to solve the issue for them.
Photo credit: Atta Kenare / AFP. Vehicles drive past a giant billboard reading “The Strait of Hormuz remains closed” at Revolution Square in Tehran on April 28th, 2026.
Yet President Donald Trump still isn’t in a hurry. As he posted on his Truth Social account last week, “I have all the time in the World, but Iran doesn’t — The clock is ticking!”
As we explained in last night’s INTREP 360 Intelligence Report, Iran is nearing what is known in the oil industry as “tank tops” — that point when they “run out of room to store the oil it is pumping out of the ground.”
Yesterday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg seeking support from Moscow amid a “flurry of diplomacy aimed at bringing an end to the war with the United States and Israel.”
Their solution? Lift the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz but delay talks regarding Iran’s nuclear program and a larger peace deal.
As Jon & his fellow soldiers say in the Army, ‘that would be a NO-GO.’
Let’s get started digging deeper.
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IT’S THE NUKES, STUPID!
Enriched uranium and Iran’s nuclear program are THE red line for the Trump Administration — the naval blockade is the economic tool to resolve the issue.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s response hit the nail on the head: “Suffice it to say that the nuclear question is the reason why we’re in this in the first place” and that the U.S. would not “normalize” a situation in which Iran controlled the strait.
In an interview with Fox News Chief Foreign Correspondent Trey Yingst, the secretary added that “The Strait of Hormuz is basically the equivalent of an economic nuclear weapon that Iran is trying to use against the world. They’re bragging about holding the world’s energy hostage. Imagine if those same people had access to a nuclear weapon.”
So, the answer was NO.
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READY ABLE!
U.S. Marines, paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division, Army Rangers, Special Forces, A-10 Warthogs and AH-64 Apache helicopters in the close air support role, and now three aircraft carrier strike groups are the military tools — to the tune of over 50,000 warfighters deployed in the region.
Iran believes that Putin can exert pressure upon the U.S. to lift their naval blockade — however, given Moscow’s current situation in Mali, Africa and past performances in Syria and Venezuela, he may want to reconsider.
The Kremlin is also 1,327,640 casualties into a war they started against Ukraine over 50 months ago. Moscow has bigger problems as we explained today in the Kyiv Post. Try as he may, Putin could not get Trump to ‘persuade’ Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to surrender — even with Kirill Dmitriev’s $14 trillion incentive dangle.
Russia has lost its boogeyman status.
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OFFRAMP TO NOWHERE?
Yet — wrongly, in our view — the White House still seems more intent on finding an off-ramp than going for the jugular.
Trump posted on Truth Social this morning that “Iran has just informed us that they are in a “State of Collapse.” They want us to “Open the Hormuz Strait,” as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation.”
If that is accurate, then why not just let the regime collapse instead of trying to negotiate a deal? The only words that need to be heard from the Islamic Republic of Iran’s regime are that ‘we surrender.’
The President needs to finish what he started and put the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) out of business once and for all! That would sort out Iran’s leadership situation — and solve a lot of problems.
Instead, the President is prepared to launch Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to Islamabad or wherever Iran wants to meet them — just not Washington — chasing a ceasefire Iran and allowing the IRGC to remain in power.
How about just win?
Especially since the military assets are in place now.
As Jon stated on X Monday, “Think we’re at the point where the President turns to [U.S. Central Command Commander] ADM [Brad] Cooper and says — open the strait.”
All of this begs the question: Has America forgotten how to win?
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COACH DEAN SMITH WARNING!
At the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, it was said that the only person to hold Michael Jordan to less than 20 points a game was Coach Dean Smith. That same analogy holds true for American Presidents and the U.S. military.
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DITCHING ESCALATION MANAGEMENT
A Wall Street Journal Opinion article by Mike Lyons last week surmised that “The Iran war is the first large-scale U.S. operation in a generation to abandon “escalation management” and “proportional response” in favor of front-loaded, overwhelming force. It has been executed with restraint toward civilians.”
Neither “escalation management” nor “proportional response” has won any war since World War II.
As Lyons correctly observes: “these rules of engagement protected enemy sanctuaries.” It allows them to remain in place — and to exponentially increase in risk year later (as we’ve witnessed with Iran’s nuclear & ballistic missile programs).
Governments need to look beyond the next election cycle and do the hard right today, not let it fester to the point where they cannot do anything about it. North Korea — and its nuclear weapons program — is exhibit one of failing to do this.
Allowing religious authoritarianism, totalitarianism, hostile dictators, and their regimes to remain in place has a proven track record of leading to regional & global instability, ‘frozen conflicts’ & ‘forever wars.’ It only exacerbates the situation.
Escalation management & proportional response are simply playing for ties. And as Gen. George S. Patton reminded us, “ Americans love a winner.”
Winning solves problems.
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FEAR OF WINNING
America — and the West in general — has become non-confrontational. And that is seen as a weakness to our adversaries. With every inch given, a yard is taken. Diplomacy has its place – but not to the point where it becomes advantageous to our enemies.
Stopping short of winning is a failed technique that mirrors escalation management.
Operation Epic Fury is the latest example. After 38 days of airstrikes the White House ‘stopped short’ of winning because “the greatest fighting force the world has ever known has met [its clear] objectives with overwhelming strength and lethal precision.”
They may have achieved their military objectives — but what about Trump’s political objective? The end state?
Instead of winning, they stopped to ask Tehran if they had had enough yet instead of making Iran come to them saying they had enough and were ready to surrender.
The gladiator — CENTCOM — had their adversary Iran pinned down and turned to Caesar — Trump — looking for a thumbs down gesture.
Instead, they got shrugged shoulders.
President Donald Trump took his foot off the gas and provided the Islamic Republic of Iran breathing room — handing Tehran an opportunity to regain their bearings, reset, and then play to their strength: prolonged negotiations.
As former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton stated, “[Trump ceasefire negotiations] signals incredible weakness towards the Iranians. I don’t think the Iranians have the upper hand here, but I think they think they have the upper hand, and that’s dangerous.”
Bolton believes we should get “regime change in Iran.” And that Iran is not a “government you can negotiate with and expect them to adhere to their agreements. The only lasting solution to bring peace and stability in the Middle East is for this regime [the Islamic Republic of Iran] to go.”
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WINNING AS AN END STATE
Military objectives are established to achieve a political objective — an end state. And that is what has been missing from the Trump Administration.
What is the end state?
All actions and carefully scripted references point to regime change. Political will has become the limiting factor though.
As we stated in our April 16th edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report, both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have said as much — only they tied regime change to setting conditions for the ‘Iranian people’ to rise up and take back their country.
That is still regime change.
And that requires the removal of the IRGC and its Basij paramilitary force from power.
An Iran — Persia — without an IRGC, without the ability to pose a threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab al-Mandab Strait, without an uranium enrichment program, without a nuclear weapons, ballistic missile, and drone programs, and without a revenue stream used to fund its proxies — Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi rebels and Shi’a militias — no longer presents a threat to their Gulf State neighbors, Israel, the U.S., and the citizens of Persia.
Removing the IRGC — the regime’s center of gravity — from power does all of the above. It severs the head from the hydra – then, all of the stated reasons the White House went to war simply wither on the vine.
That’s what winning looks like.
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YOU READ IT HERE FIRST!
Earlier today, the Kyiv Post in Ukraine published an edited version of our INTREP360 Intelligence Report for 04.23.2026.
Photo credit: Alexander Nemenov / AFB. This photograph taken on November 11th, 2025, shows statues of the double-headed eagles on the columns of the Alexandrovsky (Alexander’s) Garden gate and the Troitskaya Tower of the Kremlin in Moscow.
You can read it here.
For our readers & viewers in Poland, it was also published on ONET. You can read that version in Polish here.
Photo credit: Anadolu. Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) with Gen. Valery Gerasimov (right).
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Jon was on Al Qahera News earlier today. He covered Iran’s negotiating position & the potential for a future overall peace framework. Jon stressed that Trump was done with ‘negotiating’ with Iran. The other guest panelists acted like this would be a prolonged process. Jon kept bursting their bubble.
You can watch it here.
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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
Whole heartedly agree with this assessment.
In Europe, we are 'weak' but soon this pusillanimity will no longer be a sustainable option.