INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
02.28.2026
February 28th, 2026
Greetings! The Middle East—perhaps!—is in the process of turning upside down from how we have known it for 47 years.
That said, it is far too soon to know whether it will be for the better or worse. One thing is certain; the Islamic Republic of Iran was not going to get better on its own.
Given this reality, it was—and still is—our apolitical view that it was time for Washington to put an end to the Iranian regime. Especially given the ongoing killing of thousands—if not tens of thousands—of Iranian street protesters since December 28th, 2025.
Photo credit: President Donald Trump. Trump announcing “major combat operations” were underway in Iran—February 28th, 2026.
For decades—under the leadership of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—Tehran has killed or injured thousands of Americans, fomented instability across the Middle East, actively aided & abetted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine & was seeking to become a nuclear threat to Israel & the U.S.
Indecision—as we often argue—is a decision.
For far too long—arguably dating back to 1979—Washington has been far too indecisive when it comes to dealing with Iran.
Let’s get started exploring what is at stake & why it is imperative for Team Trump to get this right going forward & not declare an imaginary victory—as they did last June—before Iran is fully liberated from an evil dictatorial regime.
***
Washington’s indecisiveness ended today. Israel—in a series of daring daylight airstrikes—pummeled Khamenei’s compound in Tehran at 9:40 AM local time with 30 bombs including at least three bunker busters.
Photo credits: Google Earth (left) & Airbus. Khamenei’s Tehran compound before & after today’s IDF attack.
Between 30 & 40 top Iranian officials—including Khamenei—were killed. According to the Israel Defense Forces, the following targets were also eliminated in the opening salvos of what Jerusalem has named operation Roaring Lion:
- Amir Nasirzadeh—Minister of Defense;
- Mohammad Shirazi—Chief of Military Bureau of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei;
- Ali Shamkhani—Supreme Leader’s Advisor for Security Affairs & Secretary of the Defense Council;
- Mohammad Pakpour—Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC);
- Hossein Jabal-Amelian—Chairman of the Organization of Defensive Information & Research (SPND);
- Reza Mozafari Nia—former Chairman of the SPND;
- Saleh Asadi—Head of Intelligence of Khatam-al Anbiya (Iran’s unified combatant command).
All seven were top figures in Iran’s National Security Council that was established by Khamenei in August 2025 in the aftermath of the 12-Day war. Significantly—at least for now—Ali Larijani, the Secretary of Supreme National Security Council, & Masoud Pezeshkian, the President of Iran, appear to have survived.
Photo credit: Larijani. Larijani seated.
Early this afternoon—at 2:22 PM ET—Larijani defiantly posted on X that Iran “will make the Zionist criminals and the shameless Americans regret their actions.” He ended by saying, “The brave soldiers and the great nation of Iran will deliver an unforgettable lesson to the hellish international oppressors.”
***
It is important to highlight that Larijani is the senior-most Iranian civilian official still breathing in Tehran. Some U.S. officials have floated him alongside Gen. Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, & Hassan Rouhani, a former president of Iran, as potential Delcy Rodríguez-type candidates.
Our view?
Not so fast. Larijani is not a good guy. He is just as evil as Khamenei was. Larijani was largely responsible for coordinating Iran’s brutal crackdown against Iranian street protesters & he would not be a popular pick amongst Iranian civilians seeking regime change.
Unlike Rodríguez in Venezuela—whose DEA file in Washington links her to illicit networks including smuggling, money laundering & drug cartels—Larijani’s power is tied solely to the Iranian regime itself.
A regime many Iranians want to topple & to replace with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi—the son of the last Shah—as a pro-democracy constitutional monarch along the lines of the United Kingdom or Sweden.
Given that President Donald Trump is clearly after regime change in Iran, he has to get this decision right. Larijani—or others like him—would likely lead to a ‘rinse & repeat’ wherein a reconstituted Khamenei-like regime would once again chase nukes, sponsor violent militia groups & seek to renew Tehran’s ballistic missile program.
Team Trump—for better or worse—decided to go big in Iran. Consequently, the White House cannot accept anything less than true regime change. If they do, then it could haunt future U.S. administrations for decades to come.
***
The timing of today’s bold daylight attack on Khamenei’s compound and regime & military targets around Iran is dispositive. It suggested—as later confirmed by Jennifer Griffin at Fox News—that the timetable to commence Operation Epic Fury—as the U.S. has codenamed it—was moved forward to take advantage of Khamenei’s decision to meet with top Iranian leadership at his compound.
Screenshot: Khamenei X post effectively announcing his death on February 28th, 2026.
Internally—although we had considered a daylight raid as a possible Pentagon curveball—we still were thinking in terms of a nighttime operation launch. Yesterday, we spent considerable time looking at moon illumination tables for the next 10 days—meaning when the moon rises & sets—to calculate optimal windows.
That all was for naught.
Israel—following a pattern Jerusalem started after the Oct. 7 attacks—opted to go for decapitation yet again. The Israelis were successful with this strategy against Hamas & later Hezbollah—and to great effect last June against Iran.
The IDF & Mossad repeated that success today. Thus, today’s attack wasn’t simply a target of opportunity. It was what drove today’s attacks.
It was also a reminder—something that undoubtedly isn’t lost on Iran’s remaining leadership—that Israel is still capable of tracking their every move. Larijani—and others—likely are asking who is leaking to the Israelis & whether or not that Mossad spy is sitting next to them or is a member of their family.
***
Moving up the calendar likely had another unintended but welcomed effect. Rather than a measured & well-executed layered response, Iran’s leadership—or what’s left of it—was arguably haphazard in its reaction.
Instead of focusing on hitting Israeli & U.S. military targets, Iran began launching a series of indiscriminate attacks against civilian targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar & the United Arab Emirates.
Yesterday, the Gulf States & the region in general were largely opposed to the U.S. launching military strikes against Iran. Today—after numerous Iranian drones & ballistic missile strikes in Dubai & other Gulf State cities—the Mideast has largely united by issuing condemnations of Iranian aggression.
Even Syria condemned Iran over its “brutal” strikes on fellow Arab countries. How times have changed since Oct. 7—and largely because Israel opted for decisiveness over indecision in systematically confronting Iran & its regional proxies.
Consequently, Iran as a rogue state is more isolated than ever. Notably, its chief allies—Russia & China—have been largely muted in their responses.
Moscow—of course—condemned it, but that’s it. Like former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro & former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad before them, the Kremlin has left Tehran—militarily speaking—hanging out to dry.
Beijing condemned it as well. But that’s it. Instead of offering aid & assistance to Iran, Chinese President Xi Jinping continues to purge his own military. The so-called Axis of Evil—thankfully—is grinding to a halt.
***
Predictably, Turkey condemned the U.S.-Israeli airstrikes. Turkish President Recep Erdoğan is trying to position Turkey as a regional powerhous—–and to achieve that, he needs a weakened Iran but not a fully defeated one.
Plus, Erdoğan’s worst regional nightmare would be Israel & Iran returning to a close strategic relationship they shared prior to the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Erdoğan is trying to position Turkey as the leader of the Muslim world. However—for now, at least—he finds himself on the outside looking in as the Arab world unites against Iran.
***
Notably, to that end, it appears that Saudi Arabia was angling for the U.S. to strike Iran & effect regime change. According to the Washington Post tonight, “Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made multiple private phone calls to Trump over the past month advocating a U.S. attack, despite his public support for a diplomatic solution.”
We get why.
As we’ve noted here—and elsewhere—true lasting peace in Gaza & Lebanon will never happen until the Iranian regime collapses. Ditto any regional expansion of the Abraham Accords & normalization of diplomatic ties between Riyadh & Jerusalem.
Solve Iran & you solve a lot—not all—of the problems in the Mideast that have bogged down U.S. administrations since 1979. Militants are not going away any time soon. However, if the IRGC collapses, much of their funding & training will end.
***
This is just day one. It is highly unlikely this ends anytime soon. Khamenei was willing to bet he could survive any U.S. strikes—just as he did last June.
Obviously, he bet wrong. That said, he did leave in place a redundant succession plan that is reportedly four deep for each major command.
Plus, just as we wrap this special weekend edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report, Trump just posted a new warning to Iran on Truth Social.
Trump wrote, “Iran just stated that they are going to hit very hard today, harder than they have ever hit before. THEY BETTER NOT DO THAT, HOWEVER, BECAUSE IF THEY DO, WE WILL HIT THEM WITH A FORCE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE! Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
Screenshot: Trump Truth Social post—dated February 28th, 2026.
Hang on. This war is just getting started. It likely won’t end until the U.S. & Israel completely destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons & ballistic missile programs at every level. Doing so will take time & hundreds, if not thousands of sorties.
***
ICMYI
Jon was on Al Qahera News broadcasting from Cairo, Egypt earlier today to discuss the U.S. & Israeli attacks on Iran.
The segment is in Arabic.
***
Thank you for reading! Tomorrow, we will focus on what is likely to come next. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.