INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
12.11.2025
December 11th, 2025
Greetings! Today, we return to our normal format. If you missed our special Substack yesterday that focused on how peace negotiations in Ukraine have become a three-ring circus, you can read it here.
Meanwhile, the earth kept spinning the last 48 hours and there is a lot to cover in today’s edition of the Intelligence Report.
Let’s get started!
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NORTH AMERICA
Yesterday, the House passed on a bipartisan basis – by a 312 to 112 margin – the annual National Defense Authorization Act.
Photo Credit: C-SPAN.
Significantly, it pushes back on Team Trump. One key provision includes “a demand for more information on boat strikes in the Caribbean.” Another allocates $400 million to Ukraine in 2026 and 2027.
Most notably, the Act plants the U.S. flag in NATO. It stipulates that U.S. troop levels in Europe cannot fall below 76,000 unless Team Trump certifies to Congress that it is a U.S. national security imperative.
Congress gets what the polls reflect. According to the annual Reagan Defense Survey, 68% have a favorable view of NATO.
62% of Americans want Ukraine to prevail over Russia. 77% believe the U.S. should defend Taiwan against any Chinese invasion.
Each of those results are record numbers in terms of support. Yet, as we argued in The Hill today, Trump’s disconnect with Americans over key aspects of U.S. national security including Ukraine is jarring.
Photo credit: AP Photo/Alex Brandon. Left to right, Zelensky, Bessant, Vance and Trump.
We are facing a new reality. Europe reached an inflection point when Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
Unlike then, Ukraine’s fate is, as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in London, Europe’s fate now. And whether Team Trump wants to admit it, Europe’s fate is also the fate of the U.S. both in the short-term and long.
A redline is needed and it must be the Donbas. Forcing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to cede the Fortress belt that guards Kyiv and the key strategic Black Sea port of Odesa would be akin to yielding the Suwalki Gap between Poland and Lithuania.
It would leave large parts of Eastern Europe potentially indefensible. Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) gets that. He is a former Brigadier General in the Air Force and held high commands in Europe.
Bacon understands that the U.S. cannot reward an aggressor by ceding the territory of a sovereign nation to them after an invasion. It didn’t work with Hitler and as Bacon noted on Fox News, it will not work with Putin.
Czech President Petr Pavel compared the current situation to 1938, when European countries agreed to the partition of Czechoslovakia in order to avoid greater aggression.
Nor can we give Putin a say on who or who cannot join NATO. The alliance was formed to defend against the Soviet Union.
Team Trump needs to reconnect with the majority of Americans who support NATO, Ukraine and see Russia as a threat and not an ally in the making. Unfortunately, we are not there yet. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said today that Trump “is extremely frustrated with both sides of this war.”
Really?
One side – Russia – invaded its neighbor and continues to attack. The other side – Ukraine – is defending itself against an illegal invasion and continues to collect Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s negotiating ‘incentives.’
The majority of Americans see this. It is time for President Trump to see it too. Until he sees the light, Putin will just keep playing him for a fool.
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SOUTH AMERICA
Yesterday, the U.S. seized an oil tanker – named the Skipper – that is owned by Iran but flying under the flag of Guyana despite not being registered there. According to Tyler Pager, Eric Schmitt and Nichola Nehamas reporting for the New York Times, wrote that “the ship had been previously linked to the smuggling of Iranian oil.”
Two weeks ago, a “federal judge issued a seizure warrant … because of the ship’s past activities smuggling Iranian oil, not because of links to the [Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro government.”
Regardless of the nature of the seizure warrant, Team Trump’s messaging of the seizure was aimed squarely at Maduro and his government. Trump – like with Iran – is not playing games and time is getting short for Madura to abdicate.
For now, either Maduro is not getting the message. Or perhaps, like Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Maduro believes he can outlast Trump by digging in and refusing to concede anything even if his country gets attacked by the U.S.
Here was Mark’s take on Venezuela earlier today on TVP World. Watch it below.
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EUROPE
Zelensky spoke with reporters in Kyiv about the status of peace negotiations with Team Trump over the ending of the war in Ukraine. The press gaggle came on the heels of Trump disingenuously claiming yesterday that an unnamed poll showed that 82% of Ukrainians “are demanding that a settlement be made.”
There is little evidence that Ukrainians as a whole support ceding the Donbas. In October, a survey found that 54% of Ukrainians reject ceding territory to end the war. 67% “are categorically opposed … when it comes to officially recognizing the occupied territories as part of Russia.” For now, doing so remains a red line for Kyiv as it is prohibited by Ukraine’s Constitution.
We highly suspect if Ukrainians were asked the same question but expanded to make it clear that would mean giving up the country’s strategic Fortress Donbas, far more Ukrainians would reject temporarily ceding territory for peace.
Zelensky is betting on that today. During his press conference today, he hinted at conducting a public referendum to decide the issue.
Zelensky also imparted more about Trump’s revised peace plan. In addition to calling for Ukraine to cede the Donbas – it’s cosmetically dressed up now as a “free economic zone,” but that zone would be under Russian control and with it the Fortress Donbas – it calls for U.S. security guarantees and even, potentially a Marshall Plan “type of initiative.
The Marshall Plan was a $13.3 billion economic plan that was funded by the U.S. to rebuild much of post-World War II Western Europe. It was initiated by President Harry Truman.
Trump now reportedly wants the deal signed by Christmas. Signed or not by Ukraine, it is unlikely Putin will sign off on it. Last Christmas, Russia launched a massive missile attack across Ukraine. Putin neither understands peace nor good will.
Getting there will be difficult. Donbas under control of Russia – economic zone or not, still a hard NO for Ukraine.
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MIDDLE EAST
In today’s most underreported story, repercussions stemming from Trump’s new National Security Strategy keep coming. You can read our full analysis here.
Jacob Wirtschafter, reporting for the Washington Times, wrote that “Gulf officials at the annual two-day Doha Forum that wrapped up Sunday made clear that Washington’s more conciliatory tone alone won’t suffice.”
Qatar, according to Wirtschafter, sees the Mideast as becoming “more dangerous even as the U.S. de-prioritizes the region.” Doha’s central concern is that “they’re no longer just managing threats from Iran. They are buffering Israel, too.”
If Trump is to build upon the Abraham Accords – as he claims he wants to, including the rebuilding of Gaza – then normalization of Saudi Israeli diplomatic relations is essential. As Wirtschafter notes, Saudi Arabia believes that “normalization with Israel increases Saudi vulnerability unless the United States provides concrete security assurances.”
That isn’t likely to happen soon. Especially given Trump’s new transactional approach to the Mideast as defined in his NSS. Trump is coming up short in his role as Chair of the Board of Peace.
Clarity is needed. Or the Mideast may soon start backsliding into kinetic regional conflict not just with Iran but Israel too.
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AFRICA
The attempted coup in Benin in West Africa ended up failing. Its leader, Lt. Col. Pascal Tigri purportedly fled to Togo.
Nigerian fighter jets “[Dislodged] the mutineers from a military base and the offices of state TV following a request from President Patrice Talon’s government.”
Score one for the good guys. For now.
To avoid a rinse and repeat, France needs to step it up.
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INDO-PACIFIC
The Telegraph reported yesterday that “China would defeat the U.S. military in a war over Taiwan according to a top-secret document.”
It is not clear what document they are referencing. Nor how old it is. The Pentagon maintains, exercises, and updates war plans for every possibly foreseeable possibility.
If accurate, this could be a war planning document testing various scenarios as to how the U.S. could defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.
Simply put, more information is needed. For now, we are tracking and putting it on our radar and yours.
Defending Taiwan is critical to the U.S. defending the First and Second Island chains in the Indo-Pacific that protect against Beijing.
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WHAT WE ARE READING!
Donald Trump sends fierce 4-word warning to Colombia’s president as Venezuela ship seized. Jack Hobbs, reporting for The Express.
Republicans admit ‘no one knows what the Venezuela mission is’ as worries surge. Jack Hobbs, reporting for The Mirror.
Zelensky says he discussed Ukraine peace deal with Rubio, Hegseth. Sarah Fortinsky, reporting for The Hill.
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Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.
Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.