INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

12.04.2025

Dec 04, 2025

December 4^th, 2025

Greetings! Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky was likely the target of an assassination attempt as his plane was preparing to land in Ireland. Russian President Vladimir Putin is in India spinning yet another excuse to justify his ongoing illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron were caught on tape during a call with Zelensky saying that they were worried Team Trump was on the verge of “selling out” Ukraine.

Lots to cover.

Before we do, please note we are rebranding our newsletter as the INTREP360 Intelligence Report. When we first started discussing penning a Substack, one of our initial aims was to provide a 360-degree view of what is going on in the world from national security and foreign policy points of view.

INTREP literally means Intelligence Report in U.S. Army jargon.

Teaser: Today’s most underreported story – nugget, really! – is from TASS! We bet you didn’t see that happening. Neither did we.

Let’s get started!

r/europe - Four drones breached no-fly zone while President Zelensky’s aircraft was landing in Dublin

Photo credit: Airline.net

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NORTH AMERICA

President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are meeting today in Miami with Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s chief negotiator to debrief him on their 5-hour meeting yesterday with Putin and Kirill Dmitriev.

Putin essentially rejected the peace plan and is maintaining his maximalist demands. Russia will not withdraw from any Ukrainian territory it holds. Ukraine must never be allowed to join NATO. Kyiv must withdraw completely from the Donbas.

Trump characterized Witkoff-Kushner sit-down with Putin as a “reasonably good meeting.” Our assessment?

It was not.

You need not take our word for it. Take the Kremlin’s. Putin’s longtime advisor Yuri Ushakov, who attended the meeting, stated that Team Trump and Team Putin were “neither further nor closer to resolving the crisis in Ukraine.”

Meanwhile, Putin keeps bombing Ukraine. Yesterday, in Kryvyi Rih – a city in central Ukraine that had a pre-ware population of 600,000 – a three-year-old girl was injured by a Russian ballistic missile attack.

Today, in Kherson, a six-year-old Ukrainian girl died after Russian-artillery bombarded the city and its suburbs.

How many more kids need to die until Witkoff finally realizes that Putin is not a nice guy? Putin is a war criminal. Nothing more, nothing less.

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SOUTH AMERICA

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro remains in Trump’s cross hairs. Maintaining the largest build-up of U.S. power in the Caribbean since the Cuban Missile Crisis comes at a high economic and military cost.

Pressing needs in the Mediterranean – e.g., as evinced by Iran’s recent seizure of an oil tanker sailing under a Marshall Islands flag in the Strait of Hormuz – and the flareup of tensions between Japan and China over Taiwan – see our Intelligence Report from yesterday for more – means naval assets are also needed elsewhere.

Russia and China are highly unlikely to intervene – a view also shared by multiple analysts who spoke to Fox News.

As John Hardie, a Russian military analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) noted, “Moscow opposes unilateral U.S. military intervention, especially when aimed at toppling a friendly authoritarian regime. That said, Russia lacks the will and ability to stop U.S. intervention in this part of the world.”

Neither can China. It is not yet a force projection military power beyond limited capabilities in and around the Pacific Rim.

Stay tuned.

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EUROPE

Europe continues to wake up to the reality that Russia is in a kinetic hybrid war with its NATO-member states and European Union members. That message was hammered home today after a likely assassination attempt was made on Zelensky and his staff as they approached Dublin Airport in Ireland.

As reported by The Telegraph, The Journal, an Irish publication, stated that “four military drones breached a no-fly zone and flew toward [their] plane.”

The Journal calculated that had Zelensky’s plane been on time, the drones would have been directly in its landing glidepath. Having likely missed their intended target, the drones then circled “an Irish Navy vessel that had secretly been deployed in the Irish Sea ahead of Mr. Zelensky’s first visit to Ireland.”

For now, they remain unidentified. Three guesses as to who was behind it. You likely won’t need two of them.

Not after you read this from TASS, a Russian state-controlled news agency. Two days ago, they hyped a story that Zelensky might be assassinated by British Intelligence. This TASS nugget is today’s most underreported story.

Meanwhile, Der Spiegel, a widely respected German publication, released what are purported to be transcripts of a conversation held between Macron, Merz and Zelensky on Monday. According to the newsmagazine, Macron said that “There is a chance that the US will betray Ukraine on territory without clarity on security guarantees.” He continued, noting that there is “a big danger” for Zelensky and Ukraine.

Merz allegedly told Zelensky that he must be “very careful” going forward. He also complained that “They [Team Trump] are playing games with both you and us.” Der Spiegel believes that Merz was referring specifically to Witkoff and Kushner.

Apparently, Finnish President Alexander Stubb was also part of the call as was NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

Allegedly, Stubb cautioned that “We must not leave Ukraine and Volodymyr alone with [Witkoff and Kushner].” Rutte allegedly chimed in and said, “agree with Alexander that we need to protect Volodymyr.”

Putin must be counting his lucky stars. As we have often warned, one of Mad Vlad’s primary goals is to divide Washington and Brussels over his ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine and destroy NATO in the process.

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MIDDLE EAST

Yasser Abu Shabab, who was the commander of the Popular Forces in Gaza, was killed sometime during the last two days. Abu Shabab, a Bedouin tribal leader, headed the IDF-backed militia that is opposed to Hamas.

Israel began arming the Popular forces as part of its war against Hamas in the wake of the October 7 attacks.

Elsewhere, Israel announced that it has agreed to reopen the Rafah border crossing into Egypt from Gaza. But it is a one-way trip. Palestinians can leave Gaza. They cannot return. Egypt, however, denies the report.

Cairo has long been wary of allowing Palestinians from entering the Sinai due to the Muslim Brotherhood roots of Hamas.

The Muslim Brotherhood was founded in 1928 in Egypt by Salah Abdel Haq. In 2013, Egypt declared the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization.

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AFRICA

The U.S. is now in charge of the rotating leadership of the G20. On Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated Trump’s “statement a few weeks ago that [South Africa] would not be invited to G20 events in the coming year, including a summit due in Miami.”

Vincent Magweny, spokesman for South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, said in response that, “About this time next year, the UK will be taking over the G20 Presidency. We will be able to engage meaningfully and substantively over what really matters to the rest of the world. For now, we will take a commercial break until we resume normal programming.”

Expect South Africa to draw even closer to Beijing and Moscow as a result.

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INDO-PACIFIC

Putin is in India for a two-day visit with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The visit comes after Trump has put pressure on India to stop purchasing Russian oil that is, in part, funding the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.

According to the New York Times, nearly a “third of all India’s oil imports have been from Russia in the past three years.”

To deter it, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on India. As a result, as noted by the New York Times, “most Indian importers … [halted] their purchases.”

Yet Putin is bringing presents to try and change that. India finalized a deal to lease a Russian military submarine valued at $2 billion.

Discussions are also ongoing between the two leaders regarding India purchasing Russian-made S-400 anti-aircraft batteries and Sukhoi-57 fighter planes.

Elsewhere, in an alarming turnout, Taiwan’s opposition leader. Cheng Li-wun, is counseling Taipei to seek rapprochement with China to avoid war.”

Clearly, Cheng has not paid attention to what has happened in Hong Kong since the city-state [“embraced] its Chinese heritage.” It has now become a vassal province subservient to the whims and needs of Beijing.

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WHAT WE ARE READING!

Merz dashes to Brussels for talks with De Wever and VDL on Russian assets. Bjarke Smith-Meyer and Hans Von der Burchard reporting for Politico.

EU Flags Russia as High-Risk for Money Laundering, Terror Finance. Kateryna Mykhailova reporting for the Kyiv Post.

Admiral tells lawmakers there was no ‘kill them all’ order in attack that killed boat survivors. Steven Groves and Lisa Mascaro reporting for the Los Angeles Times.

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ICYMI!

Our weekly Thursday national security column at The Hill is out now. Since Trump took office, Putin has been content to watch 355,590 Russians either get killed or wounded as he chases his empire goals in Ukraine. As we warn, Putin is not going to stop until he is forced to by Washington and Brussels.

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