INTREP360 FLASH SIGNAL
TRUMP’S VENEZUELA CONUNDRUM
Is the United States just a Gulf of Tonkin incident away from escalating the current narco-terrorism defense of America into a war with Venezuela? Those conditions are becoming eerily familiar.
Last week the U.S. seized an oil tanker – the Skipper – carrying Venezuelan crude off the Venezuelacoast as it was headed to Cuba en route to Asia. CNN reports the ship “previously named the Adisa, was sanctioned by the U.S. in 2022 for facilitating oil trades for Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force.”
As a result, Nicolás Maduro ordered his navy to escort ships carrying petroleum products, setting conditions for a potential armed confrontation with the U.S. Navy as President Donald Trump’s “complete blockade” on sanctioned oil tankers going to and from Venezuela puts additional pressures on the Venezuelan President.
While the world seemingly is on fire, with active wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, Russian backed Islamic terrorists overthrowing governments throughout the Sahel region of Africa, and hot spots on the edge of igniting – South Korea and Taiwan – the Trump Administration picks now to exert pressure on Maduro.
The White House offers many justifications – an illegitimate government that lost their last election; a regime run by cartels flooding the U.S. market with drugs, gangs, and criminals; and an entry point into South America for Russian, Chinese and Iranian influence to propagate, all the while robbing it of it’s rare earth minerals and vast oil reserves.
Not to mention the axe that Secretary of State Marco Rubio would like to grind with Cuba for its role in bailing out Maduro seven years ago when his government was on the verge of being overthrown. As the New York Times described, “Rubio, the Republican senator from Florida ... had been a driving force in seeking the ouster of the Venezuelan leader.”
But given the current negotiating position of Trump’s Special Envoy Steven Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner concerning the war in Ukraine – make money, not war – it is not hard to come to the conclusion that this a play for resources as well, and that all the justifications conveniently fit into one nice section of their 2025 National Security Strategy - the Western Hemisphere:
“The United States will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, and to protect our homeland and our access to key geographies throughout the region. We will deny non-Hemispheric competitors the ability to position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically vital assets, in our Hemisphere. This “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine is a common-sense and potent restoration of American power and priorities, consistent with American security interests.”
True – Russia, China and Iran are all very supportive and invested in Maduro’s Venezuela. Even North Korea. In October, he signed into law a 10-year treaty with Russia: Treaty of Strategic Partnership and Cooperation. China, by means of their Belt and Road Initiative, signed a bilateral cooperation agreement with Venezuela in September 2023.
Axis of Evil is exploiting Latin America – robbing them of natural resources, and in turn making money, and seemingly, the Trump Administration, as evinced in their own NSS, wants a piece, if not all, of the action.
The President’s own comments at Joint Base Andrews on Friday seem to validate that position, “you remember they [Venezuelan government under Hugo Chávez] took all of our energy rights and we want it back. But they took it. They illegally took it … land, oil rights, they took it away … they threw our companies out, and we want it back.”
Venezuela has become the face of the Trump Corollary – the one they can affect and make an example of now. And that means Maduro must go. And under the guise of National Security, conditions are being set to make that happen.
In late November during a phone call between the two leaders, Trump reportedly gave Maduro an ultimatum to relinquish power immediately, “You can save yourself and those closest to you, but you must leave the country now.” He declined.
But for a man who proclaims himself to be the President of Peace – does Trump really want to start a war with Venezuela? Probably not. The on-going military build up in the Caribbean Sea and demonstration of force intended to intimidate Maduro out of Venezuela has not achieved its desired result. With the continued support of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Maduro refuses to be neighbors with former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Moscow or take up residence in Belarus, and instead is opting to dig in and wait out Trump’s threats of an imminent attack.
Sitting in the shadows – the duly elected President of Venezuela, Edmundo Gonzalez who lives in exile in Spain, and opposition leader María Corina Machado, who remained in Venezuela after the election and was recently awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
But it is Machado who seeks the mantle of leadership. In 2023, she won the Unitary Platform presidential primary to become the opposition candidate for the 2024 presidential election; however, the Venezuelan government barred her from running in the election. She named Edmundo González as her replacement. According to The Telegraph, had the opposition won, Machado would have been the de facto leader of a government led by González.
The Trump team is likely operating on the assumption that the Venezuelan population will endorse Machado should Maduro be removed from office or choose to resign. Additionally, they are anticipating that she will steer the nation towards capitalism and democracy, creating an environment conducive to renewed engagement with U.S. corporations.
But as the saying goes, assumptions make an ‘ass’ of ‘u’ and ‘me.’ Regime change is complicated – and seldom goes as planned.