INTREP 360 Quick Take: The Putin Effect
Russian President Vladimir Putin got it wrong again.
The Kremlin’s recent invasions of NATO airspace over Estonia and Poland are in direct proportion to Russian battlefield failures in Ukraine.
By invading NATO airspace with drones, helicopters and fighter jets, Putin hoped to intimate the Baltic States and Poland and divide the NATO alliance – Old NATO from New NATO – concerning further military support to Ukraine.
However, it had the opposite effect. They resulted in further coalescing the alliance and their defense of sovereign NATO territory – this time via the air domain.
The ‘special military operation’ Putin launched in February 2022 into Ukraine had a similar effect. It strengthened the NATO alliance – contributing directly to the admission of Sweden and Finland. Furthermore, NATO member countries – now at 32 member nations – have committed collectively to increase their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) towards defense spending from 2% to 5% annually by 2035.
NATO Article 4 proceedings, Eastern Sentry air patrols, and the possibility of U.S. Tomahawk missiles possibly being used to strike targets deep within the interior of Russia and Crimea may provide Ukraine the capability to seize upon President Donald Trump’s comment: “I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.”
Putin is proving to be his own worst enemy.