INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
02.16.2026
February 16th, 2026
Greetings!
The Kremlin rarely fears escalation in Ukraine because—far too often—NATO & the U.S. fear escalation more than Moscow. Then—like clockwork—when Brussels & Washington suffer yet another round of ‘escalation paralysis,’ Russian President Vladimir Putin responds by escalating even more.
The latest example occurred when French President Emmanuel Macron—bizarrely— said at the 62nd Munich Security Conference that “sending troops from the Coalition of the Willing to Ukraine right now would mean escalating the war and risking a loss of control over the situation.”
Photo credit: Kay Nietfield / Getty. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron & British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the 62nd Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany.
Really?
When has the West exerted any measure of control over Russian military tactics save—perhaps—early threats by Moscow in the summer of 2022 that they were prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons?
Munich was supposed to be about moving forward—especially on confronting Russia in Ukraine—and yet, here we are. Europe is as paralyzed as ever.
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Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—in an attempt to bring everyone back to the reality on the ground—reminded the conference’s attendees that “Russia launched about 1,300 drones last week.”
He also warned European leadership that it was a “big mistake” for them to “not be present at the table” in ongoing U.S.-brokered negotiations to end the war with Russia. Ukraine is the one working to ensure that Europe’s “interests and voice are taken into account.”
Zelensky is right. If Europe wants a measure of control—not just over the war in Ukraine but its outcome & the impact of that outcome of European security—then any “sustainable peace deal between Kyiv & Moscow must reflect the security concerns of the entire continent, not just Ukraine & the U.S.”
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Europe—NATO, the European Union (EU), and the so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ —does not want to be part of the solution. Rather, they prefer to sit that part out, then assume a role in a post-war security guarantee—and only then if backstopped by the U.S. & a set of security guarantees that do not yet exist.
Brussels & London are foolishly—and unforgivably—choosing to be non-confrontational in the face of continued Russian aggression.
Why?
Escalation fears. So instead of truly addressing Ukraine’s war needs, the EU keeps looking past the fighting & focusing on post-war pipe dreams.
Two examples:
1. While in Kyiv the first week of February—speaking before Ukraine’s parliament—NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Ukraine would see an immediate military presence from allied forces as soon as a peace agreement with Russia was reached. He boasted that, “There will instantly appear armed forces, planes in the sky, and maritime support from those in NATO who have agreed.”
2. The Financial Times reported on the same day that a ‘coalition of the willing’ has developed a multi-tiered plan for enforcing any post-war ceasefire with Russia, to which Ukraine purportedly has agreed in principle.
That’s great. If it happens. But there is one problem. Putin’s war against Ukraine is continuing unabated & until Moscow is deterred, post-war security guarantees are not going to bring about an end to the fighting.
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Substantive openings exist for Europe to decisively act to adversely change Putin’s cost calculus of waging war in Ukraine. Especially since Russia cannot sustain their current level of combat losses in Ukraine.
That reality—Moscow’s struggle to find troop replacements—is a huge red flag. Especially for a Russian army dependent upon mass. The Kremlin is losing more soldiers on the battlefield than they can domestically ‘recruit’ or draft.
Consequently, Putin is—increasingly—becoming dependent on replenishing his losses by getting other nations to contribute soldiers to do the fighting for him. This includes recruiting foreign fighters from India, Pakistan, Nepal, Cuba, Nigeria and Senegal.
That doesn’t include North Korea which—according to estimates provided by United Kingdom Defense Secretary John Healey—has dispatched over 17,000 North Korean soldiers to fight in Russia & Ukraine.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov believes the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) can increase the 30,000 casualties they inflicted upon Russia in January to 50,000 a month by the summer.
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Nor is this meat grinder problem going away for Putin. The AFU’s kill ratio is stunning. In recent fighting in Kupyansk—a Ukrainian city in northeastern Ukraine—the AFU killed 27 Russian troops for every loss of a Ukrainian soldier.
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Thus, what Putin is failing to win on the battlefield in Ukraine, he hopes to induce the U.S. to pressure Zelensky into giving him. Especially the remaining part of the Donbas still under the sovereign control of Kyiv.
To sweeten the deal, Putin dispatched his money man—Special Envoy Kirill Dmitriev—to dangle a $12 trillion post-war deal to Team Trump in what has been described as an ‘economic cooperation package.’
It had an immediate effect. On February 13th—prior to the Munich Security Conference—President Donald Trump told reporters on the White House lawn prior to boarding Marine One for Andrews Air Force Base that, “Well, Zelensky is going to have to get moving. Russia wants to make a deal, and Zelenskyy is going to have to get moving otherwise, he’s going to miss a great opportunity. He has to move.”
But the only deal Russia wants to make is with the U.S., and they are betting $12 trillion that Team Trump can deliver what they cannot take from Ukraine: the Donbas. This is not an “opportunity” for Ukraine. It would be a national death sentence.
Let’s not kid ourselves.
This is not a ‘peace deal.’ It is a business transaction between the U.S. & Russia that is completely dependent upon Team Trump getting Ukraine to submit to the Kremlin’s maximalist demands that Putin cannot otherwise achieve.
Plus, it not only endangers Ukraine but—long-term—Europe as well. It would essentially afford Russia the opportunity to rebuild its army, reset its economy, & eventually follow through on their long-telegraphed territorial ambitions in eastern Europe. Specifically, the Baltic States, then Poland.
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During the Munich Security Conference, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters, “We don’t know the Russians are serious about ending the war; they say they are––and under what terms they are willing to do it and whether we can find terms that are acceptable to Ukraine that Russia will always agree to. But we’re going to continue to test it.”
Photo credit: Liesa Johannsen / Reuters. Rubio speaking at the 62nd Munich Security Conference.
Russia is serious about ending the war but solely on its terms. They are $12 trillion serious—at least for now until they try & back out of it—about ending the war & Team Putin is counting on Team Trump to deliver Ukraine’s capitulation.
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Yet Rubio continues to tell us that “President Trump wants a solution that ends the bloodshed once and for all.” He adds that “Usually when a President tries to engage himself in peacemaking, in ending wars, that’s applauded. This is one of the few times when people criticize a President trying to end a war.”
That’s not the issue. The issue is how Trump is trying to solve it. Business deals—even a $12 trillion one—won’t stop the fighting.
To get there, the U.S. keeps putting a self-defeating stranglehold on the AFU. According to the German think tank Kiel Institute, overall U.S. military & humanitarian aid to Ukraine fell by 99% in 2025.
NASAMS & Patriot batteries reportedly sit empty in Ukraine as Russian ballistic missiles target the country’s energy sector, critical infrastructure, & residential neighborhoods on a near daily basis.
Half-measures won’t get the job done. To be sure, the U.S. is helping Ukraine albeit in different ways now.
As Rubio emphasized, other steps are being taken by Washington to put pressure on Russia to end the war. In particular, the U.S. has imposed additional sanctions on Russian oil, and in U.S. talks with India, commitments were obtained to halt further purchases of Russian oil. Plus, the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) program continues. U.S. weapons are being sold via NATO allies to support Ukraine’s war effort.
Yet, we cannot help but observe that the transactional arrangement of U.S. support to Ukraine has turned this into a business—and a rather seedy one at that—versus supporting the sovereignty of an ally who fought alongside the U.S. during the war in Afghanistan as a NATO Partnership for Peace country.
Rubio ended his comments saying, “What we can’t answer—but we’re going to continue to test—is whether there is an outcome that Ukraine can live with and that Russia will accept.”
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We already know the outcome Ukraine will not live with—ceding the Donbas to Russia. Yet the U.S. continues to pressure Kyiv to do just that. Zelensky claims that U.S. officials told him, that “an end [to the war in Ukraine could] come as quickly as possible if Kyiv withdraws from the Donbas.”
Zelensky went on to say that “Washington is too often asking for Ukraine, not Russia to make concessions. Ukraine is ready for a deal that brings real peace to Ukraine. I am confident this war can be ended and ended with dignity.”
We also know the outcome Russia will not accept––anything short of Putin’s maximalist demands. Russia has zero intent to make a deal. They have become emboldened by Western inaction due to evergreen fears of escalation.
What we do know is that the war—the killing—ends when Russia stops attacking.
What we do not know is what the U.S., NATO, EU and the ‘coalition of the willing’ are prepared to do to make that happen. Unfortunately—indeed, tragically—that was not an outcome of the Munich Security Conference.
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The next round of trilateral negotiations between Ukraine, Russia & the U.S. are scheduled to begin tomorrow in Geneva.
As the participants travel to Switzerland, Ukraine is warning that Russia is preparing for another offensive, massing troops along the border, possibly coinciding with the 5th anniversary of the invasion on February 24th.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Russia had as many as 500,000 troops ready for an assault.
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Let’s just say out loud what everyone is thinking—the world would be a better place without Putin and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. And yes, they are connected—entangled on so many levels.
The Steve Witkoff & Jared Kushner clown show—and that’s what it has become—is not producing results. Nor does allowing Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby to dictate when and if Ukraine gets the weapon systems and munitions they need.
In reality, all three are guilty of extending the war in Ukraine & potentially giving Khamenei & his regime yet another lifeline in Iran. By contrast, a handful of graduates from the U.S. Army School of Advanced Military Studies (SAMS) could put together a better plan of action to support Ukraine.
Maybe it’s time to assign them the task of Team Trump isn’t willing to bring in the generals.
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ICYMI #1
Mark was on TVP World over the weekend to discuss the 62nd Munich Security Conference with host Don Arleth. You can watch this here.
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ICYMI #2
Mark was also on Q News on Saturday to discuss the Munich Conference alongside fellow guest panelist Emmanuel Jaquet. You can watch this here.
ICYMI #3
Mark was also on Al Qahera News on Saturday in Cairo, Egypt to discuss the latest on Iran & the U.S. military buildup in the Middle East. The fellow guest panelist spoke from Tehran. You can watch this here.
This segment is in Arabic.
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Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.
Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.