Greetings!

Happy 4^th of July!

We were both around for the Bicentennial in 1976, and since it is highly unlikely that we will be around for the Tricentennial in 2076, we thought we would use today’s INTREP360 Intelligence Report to look back over the past 250 years in the context of U.S. national security and then explore what the next 50 years may entail.

AI Image credit: Grok. Montage representing the history of the U.S. from the adoption of the Constitution in 1787, until now, and into the future.

Benjamin Franklin, after the U.S. Constitution was adopted, was asked what type of government had been created. He famously replied, “A Republic, if you can keep it.”

Thus far, we as a nation and as a people have kept it and often at a bloody and high price in lives and treasure. The spirit and national ethos that was born on July 4^th, 1776, resulting in our Constitution eleven years later, are still alive.

So too are the risks to U.S. national security. They were there in 1776, and they are here now 250 years later in 2026.

Our focus today is simply to record how we as a country have addressed national security since its founding. We are not out to judge it, rather we are just aiming to understand it and what it portends for the next 50 years.

Full disclosure. We are children of the 1960s. Embracing new frontiers be it going to the moon or moving into the hi-tech age was seared into our DNA. Was it a God, flag, family and apple pie type upbringing?

Yes, but it also came with an ethos. Look forward and focus on what could be, and not backwards on what was not.

That outlook is very germane to U.S. national security. Our nation’s enemies are not behind us, they are ahead of us.

Let’s get started!

***

1776-1826: SECURING AMERICAN SOVEREIGNTY & THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE

U.S. national security was very much in doubt on July 4^th, 1776. Independence from King George had been declared, but the country on day one found itself depending on the largesse of Louis XVI in France.

Essentially, we were very much like Ukraine today. In fighting an existential war, we needed the help of others to win it.

France ultimately gave it to us culminating in the British surrender at Yorktown. Yet despite winning, the security of our country was still very much in doubt given the weaknesses of the Articles of Confederation.

Shays’ Rebellion, albeit a domestic incident, was a stark warning that a weak central government imperiled the nation’s security. By adopting the Constitution, the Founding Fathers set in motion the foundation for future security by creating a stronger executive branch, defining the U.S. military, and creating taxing powers to pay for it all.

There were early challenges.

The first was the Quasi War from 1798-1801 between the U.S. and the French First Republic. It was largely fought at sea in the Caribbean and along the coastline of the U.S. The conflict is what prompted Washington to reestablish the U.S. Navy.

The second was the Barbary Wars from 1801-1805 and 1815-16. They were the U.S. first entry into a foreign war far from the shores of America and were fought against North African pirate states as well as Morocco.

They were the first reality check that U.S. national interests at home could — and often would be — imperiled by foes around the world.

Between those two wars, the U.S. fought a second war with Great Britain known as the War of 1812. It ended in 1815 in the signing of the Treaty of Ghent. Its lasting lesson? U.S. global trade was at risk.

Its result?

The Monroe Doctrine in 1823. President James Monroe during his 1823 message to Congress “warned European powers not to interfere in the affairs of the Western Hemisphere.” It was a start, however, as our nation’s history would prove, U.S. national security ultimately could not — and cannot — be secured in the Americas alone.

***

1826-1876: CONTINENTAL EXPANSION AND DISUNION

Slavery, beyond debate, was our nation’s original sin. The Indian Removal policies during this second 50 years of our history was our second national sin.

It was justified as Manifest Destiny, a destiny that also involved fighting the Mexican-American War from 1846-1848. President James K. Polk ran for president “on a Democratic platform that supported manifest destiny, the ideal that Americans were predestined to occupy the entire North American continent.”

The war ended with the U.S. gaining control of “California, Nevada, Utah, and parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Colorado and Wyoming.”

The American Civil War erupted in 1861 and would end in 1865. More than 620,000 Americans died which was more than in World War II. It was a reminder, oft-repeated in history, that some of the greatest threats to national security come from within. The outcome, of course, was a far better, more free country.

However, it was at a terrible but necessary price.

Indian wars in the west would finish out these second 50 years and saw the forced resettlement of American Indian tribes onto reservations.

***

1876-1926: INDUSTRIAL RISE AND GLOBAL ENGAGEMENT

The Civil War helped accelerate the rapid industrialization of the U.S. economy. That in turn created a U.S. naval renaissance.

In 1898, the Spanish-American War resulted in the U.S. becoming a Pacific power. In addition to gaining sovereignty over Guam and the Philippines, the U.S. gained control of Hawaii as well as Cuba and Puerto Rico in the Caribbean.

President Teddy Roosevelt, in 1904, instituted what would become known as the Roosevelt Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. It was soon described as a “Big Stick” approach to U.S. policy of Latin America.

Heavily influenced by Alfred Thomas Mahan, a strong proponent of U.S. sea power, the U.S. dispatched The Great White Fleet on “a global circumnavigation journey from 1907 to 1909, during the presidency of Theodore Roosevelt.” The 16 modern battleships were “painted in a dazzling white color scheme.”

In 1917, the U.S. entered World War I. President Woodrow Wilson’s decision to intervene in the European conflict led to U.S. isolationism in the 1920s. In theory, the U.S. was a superpower but chose to look inward.

Others would notice and eventually in the 1930s and 1940s they would imperil U.S. national security.

***

1926-1976: GLOBAL WAR FOLLOWED BY COLD WAR

The interwar isolationism of the 1920s led to the enactment by Congress of the Neutrality Acts in the 1930s. The laws, which “made it illegal to export “arms, ammunition, or implements of war” from U.S. territory to a belligerent state” would severely hamper President Franklin Roosevelt’s efforts to defend U.S. interests after World War II broke out in 1939.

In 1941, Roosevelt, trying to shake loose from the grip of U.S. isolationism, negotiated and agreed to the Atlantic Charterwith British Prime Minister Winston Churchill. The declaration “provided a broad statement of U.S. and British war aims” ahead of the U.S. actual military involvement in World War II.

The Japanese attacks on Pearl Harbor and U.S. forces in the Philippines ended the isolation and ultimately resulted in the U.S. emerging from World War II as a global superpower, and a nuclear one at that. It also led to the creation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1949, which is still the backbone of U.S. defense.

The founding of the United Nations in 1945 was also a U.S.-led outcome of World War II, including the American role as one of the permanent United Nations Security Council members with full veto power.

Significantly, the postwar period led to a transformation of Washington’s approach to national security. The National Security Act of 1947 created the National Security Council, the Central Intelligence, and the Department of Defense.

It also witnessed the creation of the Truman Doctrine in 1947. Introduced by President Harry Truman during a Joint Address to Congress, it defined the country’s Containment Policy to stop and prevent the spread of Soviet-backed communism. It also introduced the notion of the Domino Theory that if one country fell to communism, then neighboring countries would be at risk of falling too.

Unlike after World War I, Truman made it clear the U.S. was going to stay on the global stage economically and militarily. Likewise, Truman made it clear that the U.S. was willing to assume global responsibilities.

Doing so resulted in the Korean War and later the Vietnam War. Both conflicts tested the limits of containment. Nonetheless, caught in a Cold War with the Soviet Union, the U.S., despite Vietnam War fatigue, persisted.

***

1976-2026: POST COLD WAR, ASYMMETRIC THREATS AND A RETURN TO GREAT POWER COMPETITION

The end of the Cold War in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union witnessed the emergence of new asymmetric threats. The U.S., in effect, was the only remaining global superpower and yet, China was on the rise.

NATO expanded. The U.S. fought the Gulf War in 1990. And then, 9/11 changed everything. Suddenly, non-state actors proved they could be — and were willing to be — major threats to U.S. national security.

Washington, rightly in our view, became obsessed with the notion of Soviet-era briefcase nukes falling into the wrong hands. The fear of a nuclear 9/11 was very real and it still is for those of us who cover U.S. national security, especially the war in Iran, as well as the antics of a nuclear armed North Korea.

The global War on Terror led to the creation of the Department of Homeland Security and wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Through it all, China has loomed as an emerging military threat and today, it is now considered by the U.S. to be the country’s pacing threat. Both U.S. political parties have long tried to pivot U.S military focus to the Indo-Pacific, however, as we have long assessed, there is no real pivot to be made. The vast majority of threats facing the U.S. are all interconnected given the Dragon Bear alliance between Beijing and Moscow.

Then, Ukraine changed everything again. Ukrainian use of drones has created a revolution in military affairs. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has now also resulted in a growing divide between the U.S. and its NATO allies.

Plus, Iran, after 47 years of proxy wars against the U.S. via its Axis of Resistance proxies, finally turned into a direct war as President Trump has sought to militarily put an end to Tehran’s nuclear weapons program.

The ending to that war has yet to be written.

***

2026-2076: NEW FRONTIERS?

As we close out this special July 4^th edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report, we cannot help but wonder what new threats will emerge to imperil U.S. national security. Certainly, country-to-country and asymmetrical threats will continue.

However, new peer-to-peer threats will emerge as well. Russia is beaten in Ukraine but still remains a formidable nuclear power. China, although not yet a force projection country, is rapidly expanding its military capabilities including its nuclear arsenal.

Our guess?

Space and deep-sea domains will increasingly create new threats to U.S. national security. Space, in part, because of a race back to the moon. But also, in part, because of U.S. reliance on military satellites for surveillance, targeting, and command and control.

Why the sea?

Deep sea mining and the continued development of sea drones will create new ways to project military or asymmetrical force on the U.S.

***

***

PROGRAMMING NOTE

Earlier today, Mark taped an episode of Ukraine This Week. It will air on TVP World this weekend and later will be available on YouTube.

The episode covered the latest developments on the war in Ukraine, including touching on the frontlines, and Kyiv’s efforts to take the war to Russia and render the Crimean Peninsula untenable for Russian forces.

***

ICYMI

Yesterday, in our weekday foreign affairs column at The Washington Star, we examined Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest intentional attacks on Ukrainian civilians in Kyiv. If Putin thinks he is going to destroy their morale, he needs to think again.

Screenshot: Marii Pyatka / Threads. A man distracts an anxious cat with a kitten video during Russia’s massive Thursday attack on Kyiv.

Seeing cat carrier after cat carrier in the Kyiv Metro underground makeshift bomb shelter told us everything we need to know about Ukraine’s determination to defeat Russia.

You can read it here. It is not paywalled at our request.

***

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That’s it for today! Ladies and Gentlemen, start your grills! Thank you for reading. We will see you Monday. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Once again, Happy 4^th of July!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

Greetings, and welcome to another turbulent Thursday!

Defeat on the battlefield and an inablitiy to defend the skies over Russia has again resulted in the usual response from the Kremlin – targeting civilians and more nuclear saber-rattling.

Russian President Vladimir Putin remained true to form last night, launching another ‘‘massive’’ barrage of ballistic missiles and drones at Kyiv, killing 27 and wounding another 100 civilians.

Photo Credit: Reuters. Russia approved secret China military training at top level, sources say

And as Mark wrote in last nights INTREP360 Intelligence Report, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov personally approved China’s “Covert miltary training of Russian forces.”

According to Reuters:

A classified Russian document seen by Reuters directly referred to an ‌internal decree issued by Defense Minister Andrei Belousov in ‌August, 2025.

It said that, in accordance with a decision by Belousov, a delegation from Russia’s armed forces travelled to China to participate in training exercises at People’s Liberation Army (PLA) facilities.

Training in Radiological, Biological, Chemical Warfare.

The same ⁠report detailed one of ⁠the training courses – a three-week session focused on radiological, chemical and biological protection at a military facility in Beijing ​in November.

This is what desperation looks like. Lets take a look at some of the contributing factors.

*** BATTLEFIELD LOSSES

Let’s start where the rubber meets the road – the report card. A.K.A. The battle damage assessment (BDA). As of July 2nd, it looks like this:

Photo Credit: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Losses of the Russian Occupiers in Ukraine.

1,588 days of combat = 855 casualties a day. That’s a little over one light infantry battalion a day. In 2026, Russia has lost between 30,000 – 35,000 soldiers a month.

Equally as telling – Russia’s recruitment rate for the first four months of 2026 fell below its battlefield losses.

We can give you 1,405,900 reasons for that.

***

BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE

In case you missed the report in Foreign Policy last week:

“According to Russian military bloggers, the average life expectancy of a new recruit – from arrival at a training ground to death in a combat zone – lies somewhere between 10 days and three weeks. Once they are sent onto the battlefield, Russian fighters survive an average of 20 to 35 minutes. Much of the reason for this is the extraordinary shift in battlefield technology and tactics – in particular, the ways that drones have become the primary killing machines in this war, with stark implications for the future of combat in other parts of the world.”

Ukraine has become quite efficient in killing Russians. And their primary tool is the drone.

As we wrote in our April 24^th INTREP360 Intelligence Report, Ukraine’s Kill Zone strategy has contributed to the bulk of Russian casualties in 2026.

The result: “90 percent of Russian soldiers are being killed before they even get to the front lines – and without ever confronting a Ukrainian soldier. 96 percent of those casualties come from remotely operated drones.”

And then there was the report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in January that stated, “Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of between 15 and 70 meters per day in their most prominent offensives, slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century.”

And that was six months ago – Russia is now giving back terrain. According to the Institute for the Study of War, “Ukrainian counterattacks liberated much of Kupyansk late 2025, over 400 square kilometers in southern Ukraine in Winter and Spring 2026, and several settlements in western Zaporizhia Oblast since late April 2026.”

That’s a trifecta of bad news – especially for draft age Russian men as Putin weighs mobilitzing an additional 500,000 soldiers for their slaughter in Ukraine.

More isn’t better. Its just more – targets.

***

DEEP STRIKES

Another thing Ukraine has become quit efficient at – with their own manufactured weapons courtesy of Fire Point – are deep strikes.

In June, St. Petersburg and Moscow took center stage – but Ukraine has been successfully targeting other facilites in Crimea and throughout Russia. Oil refineries, weapons production facilities, ammunition storage facilities, airfields and more.

And its having an effect – on the economy, but also on the Russian people. Ukraine has brought the war to Russia. They are experiencing the effects of war first hand, and they don’t like.

Ukrainian sanctions work – residents of St. Petersburg, Moscow and Crimea can attest.

Back in March, TVP World reported that the Levada Center – a Russian independent, nongovernmental polling and sociological research organization – found that just “24% of Russians polled thought military operations in Ukraine should continue as of mid-February, the lowest support since the center began its polling.”

More complelling finding was that as many as 67% of the respondents said now is the right time for Russia to move to peace negotiations, 6 percentage points up on January this year.

Newsweek reported yesterday that a poll conducted by the Kremlin-friendly FOM (Public Opinion Foundation) found that 69 percent of the respondents trusted Putin – a drop of five percentage points from June 14, and the lowest level for the Russian president since the start of his full-scale invasion.

***

UKRAINE REINFORCES SUCCESS

On June 25th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had approved a plan – an influence operation – for Ukraine’s State Security Service (SBU) to launch a 40-day operation aimed at pressuring Russia to end the war.

The plan is based upon the success of Ukraine’s long-range sanctions plan, mid-range sanctions, and the results of the Security Service of Ukraine – specifically the Center of Special Operations “Alpha” – on the front. The Kill Zone strategy.

Photo Credit: Getty. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had proposed face-to-face talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin

His open letter to Putin shortly after the first drone strikes in St. Petersburg proposing an immediate ceasefire along the current frontline and a face-to-face bilateral meeting in a third country to end the war was rejected. Putin’s response was, “I see no point in meeting.”

That was then – by day 40 Putin may have a different perspective.

***

BUT NOT WITHOUT RISK

Zelensky knew what the Russian response would be – Russian ballistic missiles, drones and glide bombs on Ukrainian cities targeting civilians.

And they have, striking cultural centers, the Premier Palace Hotel in central Kyiv, the Dormition Cathedral at Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, residential buildings, a Red Cross humanitarian warehouse, a kindergarten in Sumy, and more.

The intent is to strike fear and to destroy all things associated with Ukrainian culture. We have said it before – but if these strikes are war crimes and an attempt to erase an entire culture. Genocide – as we laid out in our June 15th INTREP360 IR.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres finally stepped up and condemned the Russian attacks on Kyiv, warning that “strikes against civilians and civilian infrastructure violate international humanitarian law and must stop immediately.”

But they won’t.

Condemnation – lawyer talk – won’t stop the attacks. It’s Putin’s only recourse since the West isn’t buying his nuclear rhetoric and Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko isn’t going to open a second front.

***

SQUARING THE CIRCLE

Knowing what the response will be and defending against it are two different things.

Ukraine remains woefully short of air defense assets and munitions. They can handle the drone threat – but need more Patriot missiles to address the ballistic and hypersonic missile threat.

The Kyiv Post reported today that Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov “wrote to nearly 40 partner countries, urging them to immediately transfer Patriot missiles from existing stockpiles to Ukraine, in exchange for future deliveries already contracted for Kyiv.” He added that “shooting down ballistic missiles remains a key challenge due to a shortage of missiles for Patriot systems.”

Putin’s ‘special military operation’ is on day 1,588, and Ukraine still does not have an integrated air defense system or an established No-Fly Zone despite all the talk amongst European countries to support them.

That cost is borne by the Ukrainian civilian. As the saying goes, “deeds not words.” While Europe has stepped up to fill the void of U.S. support in 2025, more is needed to defend Ukraine from Russian bombardments. More must be done to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense network.

A decision by President Donald Trump to release the licences for Ukraine to begin production of Patriot missiles would be a step in the right direction.

***

ICYMI. We published two national security articles today in The Washington Star and our weekely column in The Hill. You can read them here:

The Washington Star

Putin Ups Ukraine Civilian Attacks as Russian Losses Mount

Kyiv Metro, the subterranean mass-transit system in Ukraine’s cap…

Read more

2 days ago · Mark Toth and Jonathan Sweet

The Washington Star

Iraq Joins the Anti-Iran Coalition — To Tehran's Chagrin

While talks between Iran’s and America’s negotiation teams in Doha center around the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran and its Islamic Revolut…

Read more

3 days ago · 2 likes · Jonathan Sweet and Mark Toth

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/5949847-iran-taming-trump-negotiations/

***

Thank you for reading. We will see you tommorow.

Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.

Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

Greetings!

Jon is still off today enjoying the beaches of the Dominican Republic with his wife. He will be back in action here tomorrow.

Alas, with no sand or surf in sight, the story that caught my eye today was from Reuters. They are reporting that Andrei Belousov, Russia’s defense minister, personally approved China’s “covert military training of Russian forces.”

The covert training, which took place last year in China, focused on radiological, chemical, and biological (CBR) protection. CBR training is standard operating procedure for most modern-day armies. Largely, it is for defensive purposes.

AI image credit: Grok. Fictional depiction of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin wearing CBR protective gear.

However, that does not mean this kind of training cannot support offensive use of radiological, chemical, or biological weapons.

Plus, it is concerning on multiple levels. One, Dragon Bear training, especially when it involves interoperability exercises like this one, is alarming. Two, does it portend further Chinese military involvement in Ukraine?

The third?

This is potentially the most alarming one. Does this foreshadow Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to introduce CBR weapons at scale in Ukraine as his grip on power starts to slip in Moscow?

Let’s get started exploring these concerns as well as detailing what is known about Russia’s offensive CBR weapons.

***

RUSSIA’S CBR CAPABILITIES ARE FORMIDABLE

In the aftermath of the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Russian Federation inherited a large-scale CBR program. Many of its capabilities are embedded in the Russian Ministry of Defense [MoD]. Officially, they are for defensive purposes only; however, U.S. intelligence has long-assessed that Russia maintains offensive CBR weapons.

The embedded agencies include the 48^th Central Scientific-Research Institute (48^th TNII) which is located in the infamous Soviet era Sergiev Posad-6 base. The agency is currently run by Sergey Vladimirovich Borisevich.

Photo credit: Maxar. Satellite photograph of Sergiev Posad-6, a notorious Soviet era Russian CBR facility.

It is the leading institute responsible for defending against — and in our assessment, weaponizing — infectious diseases and biological threats. The 48^th TNII has a microbiology lab in Kirov and another facility in Yekaterinburg.

In 2024, the Washington Post reported that satellite imagery taken a couple of months after the launch of Putin’s special military operation on February 24^th, 2022, indicated that the Russians were adding 10 new buildings totaling 250,000 square feet at Sergiev Posad-6.

The Kremlin’s cover story?

According to the Washington Post, Russian officials “publicly confirmed that [its MoD] scientists will use the labs to study deadly microbes such as the Ebola viruses, in an effort to strengthen the country’s defenses against bioterrorism as well as future pandemics.”

Spare us.

The Soviet Union was notorious for using the same excuse to cover its weaponization of so-called CBR threats.

There are additional Russian so-called research agencies. The 27^th Scientific Center, located in Moscow, was run by Colonel-General Stanislav Petrov until he reportedly committed suicide in May. It is the leading MoD institute on chemical and biological matters.

The 33^rd Central Scientific Research and Testing Institute, located in Shikhany, is headed by Valery Alexandrovich Inozemtsev. Its primary role is chemical weapons testing, research, and development of delivery systems.

The State Scientific Research Institute of Organic Chemistry and Technology, located in Moscow, is headed by Alexander Valeryevich Kutkin. It is also focused on chemical weapons development and research.

Photo credit: Yandex Maps. The State Scientific Research Institute of Organic Chemistry and Technology, located in Moscow, Russia.

There are numerous other MoD facilities and scientific units that focus on epidemiology, hygiene, microbiology, decontamination, protection, and field response.

Maj. Gen. Alexei Vikorovich Viktorovich Rtizhev is in overall military command of Russia’s CBR weapons program. His umbrella unit is called the Radiological, Chemical, and Biological Defense Troops (RCB).

The U.S. has sanctioned Rtizhev, RCB, the 48^th TNII, the 27^th Scientific Center, the 33^rd Central Scientific Research and Testing Institute, and a myriad of other Russian CBR related research and procurement officials and entities. In addition, the European Union has sanctioned many of the aforementioned.

***

CBR TRAINING IN CHINA

During the 2025 joint military training exercises in China, in addition to training Russian troops in drones, Reuters reported that there was also “a three-week session focused on radiological, chemical and biological protection at a military facility in Beijing in ​November.”

Training sessions included examining a model of a nuclear reactor, “chemical reconnaissance,” “radiation reconnaissance,” and “protecting ventilation systems from contamination.” According to European intelligence agencies, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) trained 200 Russian soldiers during these sessions.

Beijing denied the report and in a statement to Reuters, the Chinese foreign ministry said it is neutral in the Ukraine conflict and that “the relevant allegations [regarding CBR training] are entirely unfounded.

Moscow denied it as well.

Notably, Kaja Kallas, the European Union foreign policy chief, went on record saying that “Brussels had confirmed through its own channels that the training had ​taken place and was now assessing the implications.”

Beijing, according to Reuters characterized her statement as “nothing but smears.” Call me suspicious, but China doth protest too much.

***

“NO LIMITS” DRAGON-BEAR PARTNERSHIP

Beijing can deny Kallas’ claim all they want, however, Ukrainian intelligence in May confirmed that Russian soldiers who were covertly trained in China are now fighting in Ukraine. European intelligence agencies confirmed it as well.

The irony is not the denial. Russia and China have long hidden by false renunciations. The bigger question is why.

After all, in February, Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed China’s “no limits” partnership with Russia in a telephone call with Putin. Notably, Xi made that call on the fourth anniversary of the start of Putin’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.

One, why is Xi hiding behind alleged neutrality given that his call took place with Putin on February 24^th?

That does not exactly scream neutrality.

Two, why hide it at all given the “no limits’ partnership between China and Russia that has been repeatedly touted by Xi and Putin?

Are the denials because Beijing and Moscow are hiding something else?

***

RUSSIAN GENERALS ENTER THE CHAT

Maybe so. Notably, two Russian generals participated in the Chinese CBR training sessions in 2025.

Col. Gen. Rustam Muradov, the deputy commander-in-chief of Russia’s land forces, headed Moscow’s group. He was also accompanied in China by Maj. Gen. Vitaly Gerasimov, who is currently the commander of the Kazan Higher Tank Command School (he is not to be confused with Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian General Staff and the author of the Gerasimov Doctrine).

Significantly, on the Chinese side, PLA Maj. Gen. Li Jinsun, the chief of the China’s Military Academy of Radiological and Biological Defense, was also a primary participant in the Chinese training of Russian forces.

Granted, as noted above, every army trains for CBR. NATO, as an alliance, does so as well for defensive purposes. The Combined Joint CBRN Defense Force is responsible for training NATO forces.

Photo credit: Senior Airman Madelyn Keech / U.S. Air Force. U.S. Air Force Airmen assigned to various bases across the U.S. and Europe work with an Italian air force explosive ordnance disposal team to respond to a scenario during NATO Exercise Toxic Trip 23 at Koksijde Air Base, Belgium, September 25^th, 2023

Yet, given Russia’s setbacks in Ukraine, CBR training is hardly its greatest priority. Unless, of course, it becomes central to ensuring Putin’s political survival. As Jon and I argued at The Hill last week, if Crimea falls or becomes untenable for Russian forces, then Putin might not survive the fallout.

***

DROWNING MAN

Putin is in many ways a drowning man. His three-day ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine has turned into a national nightmare as we outlined here last week.

Desperate men often do desperate things.

Could using CBR offensive weapons be one of them? To be clear, I am not predicting that Putin will resort to this.

I am only connecting the dots to suggest that he may –– emphasis on ‘may’ –– be preparing to do so as a potential last-ditch effort to save himself in Ukraine.

Putin does not need China’s help on the CBR weapons themselves. Russia has long developed its own expertise and arsenals.

However, the Russian MoD could use help in CBR defensive training in case Russian offensive use of CBR weapons creates a boomerang effect on Russian forces. Plus, if CBR is used as an offensive force multiplier, then Russian commanders will need to be prepared on how to advance through their impact on the battlefield.

***

IS KYIV PROLOGUE?

As I close out tonight’s edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report, I cannot help but notice the heinous Russian ballistic missile and drone attacks over the past several hours on Ukrainian civilians throughout Kyiv. Putin, by the day, is getting more and more desperate and more and more reckless.

For now, they are just filled with bombs. However, I am haunted by this nagging notion that one day, God forbid, they carry a CBR weapon.

NATO, to prevent that, must be clear in its stated consequences to Putin if Russia ever launches a wide-scale CBR attack on Ukraine. NATO must also do everything possible to ensure the Armed Forces of Ukraine are prepared to defend themselves.

Once again, tonight’s INTREP360 is cautionary, not predictive. I was never a Boy Scout let alone a Cub Scout, but their motto of being prepared is warranted here.

***

PROGRAMMING NOTE

Tomorrow, in our weekly Thursday 7 AM national security column in The Hill in Washington, D.C., we examine the claim of Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, that he has “tamed” President Donald Trump.

Iran is certainly convinced it has. Will it be proven true?

You can read it here when it goes live.

***

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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

Greetings!

Jon is celebrating his wedding anniversary today with his wife today in the Dominican Republic and we decided it best to take a knee.

Often in this gig, our immediate families pay the price for our work during what should be family time because we are forced to scan our news feeds due to breaking news, peel away to do a TV or radio hit, or leave a family event early to pen a column or Substack.

Photo: Jon and Sonia celebrating their anniversary in the Dominican Republic on June 30^th, 2026.

We could not do this without them, so please understand our need to put them first during important family events.

Happy Anniversary Jon & Sonia!

***

ICYMI #1

Earlier today, in our regular weekday foreign affairs column at The Washington Star, we argued that it is time for the 60-day Kabuki theater act playing out been the U.S. and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps come to an end.

The act is wearing thin and U.S. troops remain in harm’s way. Let Adm. Brad Cooper finish the job.

Photo credit: U.S. Central Command. The USS Boxer (foreground) and the USS Portland sail the Indian Ocean in formation on June 30^th, 2026.

You can read it here. It is not paywalled at our request.

***

ICYMI #2

I appeared on Al Qahera News TV earlier today. It was a panel discussion that focused on the ongoing peace talks between the U.S. and Qatar. I stated that he was skeptical that the IRGC is serious about entering into a lasting peace agreement with the U.S.

I also pointed out that Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s approach to Iran in Lebanon is very different than Vice President Vance’s tactic of extending a hand to the IRGC to ending the war in the Persian Gulf.

The guest from Beirut overestimated the IRGC’s negotiating hand and the state of its economy. The studio panelist in Cairo agreed with me: Iran’s economy has been badly damaged and weakened.

You can watch a clip of it here.

You can also watch the entire segment here.

The episode is in Arabic.

***

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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

Greetings!

Russia, as a nation, is beginning to run on fumes courtesy of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) — especially at the hands of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces. Their sustained deep strikes on Russian oil and energy facilities are creating long lines for the denizens of Moscow and St. Petersburg at gas stations.

AI image credit: Grok. Fictional image depicting Russian President Vladimir Putin hitchhiking outside of the walls of the Kremlin.

Fights are breaking out. X, Bluesky, Telegram, and other social media are full of Russian civilians berating one anotherand throwing punches at each other.

Finally, Russian President Vladimir Putin was forced to break his silence and admit Russia has a gasoline and diesel fuel problem. In what was described as a long and “rambling speech,” he said, “You are well aware that problems for drivers and for business exist.” He then added that, “Unfortunately, there are still queues at petrol stations.”

He then proceeded to blame the gasoline shortage problem on Ukrainian “terrorist attacks on our territory and infrastructure facilities.”

Really?

Putin seems to forget that he is the one who invaded Ukraine. Let’s be candid. He is the only terrorist in this war.

His armies have intentionally targeted civilians, wounding and killing them in the process. Putin has repeatedly weaponized winter during the course of his four-plus-year old ‘special military operation’ in an attempt to freeze Ukraine into capitulating.

The Kremlin has also weaponized Ukraine’s ecology and environment, including shelling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Perhaps most egregiously in this regard, Moscow caused catastrophic destruction by destroying the Nova Kakhovka Dam on the river Dnipro in 2023 which inundated the Kherson region 45 miles to the west.

Yet, like much of Putin’s war, destroying the dam proved self-defeating. It temporarily created a natural barrier preventing Russian forces in the south and in Crimea from being able to threaten Kherson and Odesa to the West.

Physically, the Russians are running low on gas. Symbolically, its military is out of gas in Ukraine. And intellectually, at least from a military perspective, its leaders, including Putin, are out of gas when it comes to being wartime leaders.

Let’s get started understanding why.

***

RUSSIA IS A GAS STATION

The late Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) understood something Putin could not understand at best or did not want to admit at worst. In 2014, after Russian forces invaded the Donbas for the first time and seized the Crimean peninsula, McCain characterized Russia as “a gas station masquerading as a country.”

Photo credit: Unknown and undated photo of the late Sen. John McCain; Grok added the McCain quote from his 2008 presidential debate with the then Sen. Barack.

He added that, “I have no illusions or worry about the long-term future of Russia.” By that, McCain was referring to the Russian economy and its ability to keep up with the West and the level of U.S. defense spending.

McCain also correctly foresaw that Putin eventually would invade Ukraine again. The only thing stopping the Russian dictator? The late Arizona senator said it was because “Vladimir Putin is figuring out the cost-benefit ratio to moving into Ukraine.”

Putin thought he had figured that ratio out on February 24^th, 2022. Ever since, the AFU has been proving his calculations wrong.

***

PUTIN WHINGES THAT RUSSIA IS NOT A GAS STATION

Putin was not pleased. While there is no record that we can find of the Russian president directly countering McCain, he has been obsessed about the late Arizona’s gas station characterization of Russia ever since.

In September 2020, Putin conducted an online open school lesson with Russian students across the country during the height of the Covid pandemic. During his comments, he touted advanced Russian technologies and said they were why the country was able to confront the crisis and keep functioning.

Then, in what might have otherwise appeared as a throwaway line, he said that the country’s technological prowess“suggests that [Russia is] still not a ‘gas station country,’ as some are trying to present us.” Clearly, McCain’s zinger from six-plus years earlier was taking up space in Putin’s brain.

Ten months later, Putin addressed it again during the 24^th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. During a video conference with international journalists, he repeated his assertion that “Russia is not a gas station.” He added that, “Russia is a country with a high level of science and education.”

Maybe so. However, thus far, Russia’s collective brain trust has been woefully lacking on the battlefields of Ukraine, and it has failed to stop the AFU’s sustained precision deep strikes using drones as well as ballistic and cruise missiles on Russia’s oil and energy installations, logistics, and railways.

Then yet again, later that year, perhaps thinking the third time would be the charm, Putin repeated his assertion. He said, referring to mining, that “only two percent, I want to emphasize, only two percent fell on mining. Now let someone say that Russia is a gas station, as they tried to talk about it recently.”

Recently?

Really?

McCain died on August 25^th, 2018. He made his gas station comment in 2014 or nine years before Putin characterized it as “recently.” McCain’s knife, symbolically speaking, was still twisting inside the Russian president’s head.

***

UKRAINE IS PROVING RUSSIA IS A GAS STATION

Putin may like to tout that Russia is not a gas station, but it is Ukrainian attacks on that sector of his economy that risks bringing the country to its knees at home and on the battlefields of occupied Ukraine.

The AFU, using long-range drones and missiles, has systematically targeted Russian “oil refineries, terminals, pipelines, and land and railway supply routes.” Since March of this year, more than two dozen refineries alone have been hit. Those hits have included eight of Russia’s ten largest refineries.

The impact has been significant. Between 20% and 25% of Russia’s total refining capacity has been destroyed or disrupted. This has resulted in an estimated 15% domestic fuel supply shortfall, and it is only getting worse.

These levels of fuel shortages if left unchecked will begin to have a compounding effect on the Russian economy and by extension Putin’s war effort in Ukraine. Putin may claim that these shortages are “not critical,” but that is anything but the case.

Russian armies roll on petrol and rely heavily on diesel. Russia’s economic and war logistics run in part on diesel railway engines.

Think it does not matter?

There is even one video circulating online that shows a steam locomotive and has prompted claims that Moscow is resorting to steam-powered trains amid the growing diesel shortage. To be clear, we cannot determine to what extent, if at all, the Kremlin is resorting to steam engines.

Nonetheless, if the AFU keeps destroying or incapacitating Russia’s oil and energy infrastructure, Moscow may need to.

Got coal anyone?

***

GAS RATIONING IN RUSSIA

Julia Parnis, reporting for Radio Free Europe, assesses that “more than half of Russia’s 83 regions are struggling with gasoline shortages, due overwhelmingly to Ukraine drone strikes.” She also noted that “As of June 24, at least 55 of Russia’s 83 federal entities — regions, republics, krais, oblasts, and so-called federally-designated cities — were reporting either mandatory, government restrictions on gasoline and diesel sales, or restrictions imposed by private companies operating fuel stations.”

Graphic credit: Mike Eckel, Julia Parnis, RFE/RL Graphics. Map showing gasoline shortages in Russia.

As we noted at The Hill in Washington, D.C. last Thursday, the gas shortage situation is even more dire in Crimea, and it is rapidly getting worse. Putin is beginning to encounter the classic ‘I must pay the rent, but I can’t pay the rent’ catch-22.

Only instead of rent money, it is gas that is coming up short. Moreover, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals are acutely aware of their growing advantage in this regard, and they are going to keep exploiting it.

As we noted in The Washington Star, Russia is facing 40 dark days and nights after Zelensky authorized the Security Service of Ukraine last Thursday to launch a kinetic 40-day pressure campaign against Putin.

***

POSTSCRIPT

There are, perhaps, many Russian soldiers who welcome the growing fuel shortage throughout Russia, especially if the reporting in Foreign Policy is true.

The publication, citing Russian military bloggers, claimed that Putin’s soldiers by the time they reach training grounds only have 10 to 21 days to live before they die on the battlefields of Russian-occupied Ukraine. Chillingly, the study claims that once Russian soldiers reach the frontlines, their life expectancy is as little as 20 minutes.

We do not know if this is accurate, but we do know that as of today, according to Ukraine, 1,403,550 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded so far. Fuel shortages in Russia may be the only way their lives are saved, or a few more minutes added onto their battlefield life expectancy once they get there.

***

ICYMI #1

Earlier today, in our regular weekday foreign affairs column at The Washington Star, we warned the White House that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has no intention of honoring the MOU or any permanent peace deal Iran may sign with the U.S.

Photo credit: Fars News Agency. The IRGC Navy seizes a ship in 2019 in the Persian Gulf.

More succinctly, as Jon put it for us, “It’s the IRGC, stupid!”

You can read it here. It is not paywalled at our request.

***

ICYMI #2

Mark appeared on TVP World last Friday evening. Our good friend Ashim Kumur hosted the segment.

They discussed how the IRGC holds the real power in Iran. Mark also argued that we are seeing two distinct ways of the Trump Administration’s approach to Tehran at play here. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is trying to box Iran out of Lebanon while Vice President JD Vance is extending a hand of friendship to the IRGC.

Spoiler: We strongly prefer Rubio’s plan of action against the Iranian regime. In fact, in our opinion, Vance’s approach should be a non-starter.

You can watch it here. The segment is in English.

***

ICYMI #3

On Saturday, Mark appeared on Al Qahera News TV. He discussed the new trilateral peace framework signed on Friday by Israel, Lebanon, and the U.S. The fellow guest panelist was from Beirut and essentially took Hezbollah’s side.

Mark pushed back hard asking what sovereign country would allow an armed militia acting at the behest of Iran to operate inside of its borders. He then pointed out that Egypt would not, the U.S. would not, and that Lebanon should not.

You can watch a clip of it here. The segment is in Arabic.

***

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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

Greetings!

Just when you thought we’d have a quiet weekend – the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) attacks a Singapore cargo ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday.

Photo Credit: VESSELFINDER.COM. Vessel Ever Lovely has since completed it transit through the waterway and is continuing its voyage as scheduled.

According to the Financial Times, the cargo ship was targeted after at least four tankers trying to traverse the Strait were turned back by Iran.

Not like ‘we’ didn’t see this coming. And by we, we mean everyone except Vice President J.D. Vance and his negotiating team in Switzerland – Witkoff & Kushner.

The IRGC is staying on script with their commanders’ guidance – Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi:

“We have tamed President Trump. We got what we wanted. As always, the naive West believes it will get something in return, which, of course, will never happen.”

“Our goal now is to keep the Americans under strict surveillance. Any violation, no matter how small, will allow us to threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump and his people will accept anything.”

As we wrote in The Hill in March, the IRGC is the Islamic Republic of Iran’s center of gravity. As the White House is rediscovering – it doesn’t matter what is said and agreed to behind closed doors, the IRGC is not bound to it. Whether by design or by default, Tehran’s negotiation team is operating off a separate playbook and not in sync with the IRGC – or are they? – creating an atmosphere of plausible deniability that some ‘deconfliction cell’ can iron out later.

Nothing has changed, just like Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “The Iranian system is led by clerics, radical clerics. That’s what it’s always been led by.”

The White House continues to spin its wheels with “people in [Iran’s] political branches that seem more flexible or more willing to work with us.” Only, the IRGC does what Vahidi tells them to do – they are after all, his enforcers.

The IRGC keeps the regime in power, directs their proxies to attack Israel, arrests Iranian civilians accused of collaborating with “the enemy,” launches missiles and drones at Gulf State neighbors, and attacks ships transiting the strait.

As the phrase made famous by the 1976 investigative film All the President’s Men goes, “follow the money.” In this case, if you want to know Iran’s true intent, “follow the IRGC.”

Unless Washington does something about the IRGC, they should just go ahead and brace themselves for 57 more days of trying to secure that elusive “pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.” In this case – an open Strait of Hormuz free of Iranian influence and for the recovery of 972 pounds of 60% enriched uranium.

***

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

So let’s take a look at Point #5 of the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that the U.S. and Iran agreed to:

Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

Those two words at the front end of this point – “best efforts” – provide Tehran significant latitude to operate. So too do the words “safe passage” of commercial vessels with “no charge, for 60 days only” from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman. This implies administrative control over the strait – and fees, tolls, tax, environmental charges, Iranian insurance, etc., … whatever Iran eventually calls them on day 61.

Last Friday, Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) said that planned fees for ships using the waterway [Strait of Hormuz] would be suspended during the 60-day negotiation period established under the MoU signed with the U.S.

Today Iran made clear what their ‘best efforts’ were – warning that safe passage can only be guaranteed for ships that coordinate with Tehran.

The Hill’s Laura Kelly wrote:

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi posted on X that passage through the strait must be coordinated with Iran and that attempts to subvert Tehran could lead to “the suspension of the designated parallel route.”

“Safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, with ambiguous arrangements, parallel routes, or decision-making outside of Iran’s considerations as the coastal state, cannot be guaranteed”

“Any credible framework must be based on coordination with Iran and the provisions of paragraph five of the Islamabad MoU. Otherwise, the outcome will be the suspension of the designated parallel route.”

But as Lee Corso would say on ESPN’s College GameDay program, “Not so fast my friend.”

On Wednesday, the President posted on Truth Social that, “Iran has informed the U.S. that, despite troublemaking Fake News reporting to the contrary, there are “NO TOLLS, NO INSURANCE COSTS, & NO OTHER CHARGES OF ANY KIND BEING SOUGHT OR RECEIVED BY IRAN ON SHIPS TRAVELING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.” If this is false information, negotiations would end, immediately!

Rubio followed that up with a statement of his own, “The Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway… no country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway … That’s existing international law. That’s the way it is in international waterways all over the world, and that’s the way we expect it’ll be here.”

***

BUT THAT’S NOT WHAT THE MoU SAYS

While the MoU was intentionally written vaguely, Iran’s interpretation of the document is quite literal.

They aren’t waiting until day 60 – and the IRGC is already in enforcement mode.

This is right out of Paul Newman’s 1967 movie hit Cool Hand Luke: “What we’ve got here is failure to communicate.”

You can watch it here:

***

KEEPING THE STRAIT OPEN

Keeping the oil flowing is the goal – but holding Iran accountable must be the requirement.

Team Trump is going to have to do something about these incursions and ceasefire violations – tough talk followed by inaction isn’t working. Not just in the Strait of Hormuz, but in Lebanon as we wrote in Wednesday’s INTREP360 Intelligence Report.

The IRGC is slowly picking away at the scab of the MoU terms as Iran’s negotiation team tells Witkoff & Kushner what they want to hear, only to refute what they agreed to later.

Writing them off as ‘minor’ events only begets more violations.

The U.S. ‘can’t get there from here.’ If Iran can’t play well with others, then it’s time to remove Iran from the equation.

***

ICYMI #1

In our daily weekday column at The Washington Star, we examined Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s announcement that Ukraine is going to wage a 40-day pressure campaign against Russia to end the war.

Photo credit: X. Volodymyr Zelensky said today that “we honor the blue banner with the golden tamğa — this proud flag that unites the entire Crimean Tatar people.”

You can read it here.

***

ICYMI #2

Earlier today, Mark appeared on Al Qahera News to discuss the latest on Phase 2 of the Gaza ceasefire as well as reacting to the breaking news of the agreement signed at the State Department today between Israel and Lebanon.

To say the least, it got heated. The studio guest was obsessed about blaming Israel while ignoring Hamas.

Mark’s response?

He said we could spend the next 50 years assigning blame, but if the panel really wants to see peace in Gaza and Lebanon, Hamas and Hezbollah must be disarmed and disbanded.

You can watch it here.

***

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Thank you for reading. Have a great weekend and we will see you on Monday.

Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

Greetings!

Once upon a time, in another century, Mark was a history major before deciding he needed to add an economics degree to pay the bills. Like many university students at the time, Mark read Edward Gibbon’s The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.

Four plus decades later, during a thunderstorm today, he was struck by the notion that we are witnessing in real time the decline and fall of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s would-be Russian Empire.

AI image credit: Grok. Russian President Vladimir Putin depicted as a Roman emperor amidst the rubble of his empire.

Gibbon argued that the decline of the Roman empire took roughly thirteen centuries from its height in the 2^nd century AD to the fall of Constantinople in 1453. Putin, despite being a lover of history, is compressing his collapses to a handful of years by comparison.

It is really remarkable how far Russia has fallen since February 24^th, 2022, the start of Putin’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.

Putin was at the apex of his power. He had won four presidential elections in 2000, 2004, 2012, and 2018.

By 2022, his grip was complete. He effectively banned Russia’s independent media companies, marginalized political opposition, and used a network of business oligarchs to gain tight control of Russia’s economy.

He was also coming off a victory in Crimea, wherein Russia easily seized the Ukrainian oblast and illegally annexed it in 2014. For a time, prior to 2022, it appeared as if Putin was looking north to the Northern Sea Route as his next territorial ambition.

Yet it was only when Putin began looking south at Ukraine that things started going south for him and his would-be Russian empire.

Let’s get started finding out why and just how far Putin and, by extension, Russia, have fallen since he set out on a Gilligan’s Island-like three-day tour in Ukraine.

***

EMPEROR OF THE ARCTIC

As early as 2007, Putin was intent on making the Northern Sea Route essentially a Russian lake. In August of that year, a Russian Mir mini-sub planted a “rust-proof titanium flag” on the seabed of the North Pole.

He was marking Moscow’s claim to all of the pole’s oil and gas rights. Essentially, Putin was emulating former Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin’s “Red Arctic” dream of dominating the North Pole and exploiting its riches.

Map credit: The Arctic Institute. Map showing the Northern Sea Route, the Northwest Passage and the Transpolar Sea Route

The Russian president also backed it with money. Putin’s 15-year master development plan for the Northern Sea Route was passed into legislation in the Duma in 2019.

It called for a $300 billion incentive package to build “new incentives for new ports, factories, and oil and gas developments on the shores and in the waters of the Arctic Ocean.” Given global warming in the Arctic, it looked like a safe bet.

That is, until Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022. Foreign investors fled and many of the projects still remain half-built or left incomplete.

Putin did not realize it at the time, nor did the West, but it was his first major loss as a would-be Peter the Great.

***

THE ROAD TO MOLDOVA

Early on in the war, we warned at our weekly Thursday national security column at The Hill that Ukraine was merely a stepping-stone for Putin. Georgia, the country, not the state, was one target. Moldova was the other.

As with the Northern Sea Route, Putin was intent on turning the Black Sea into a Russian lake. Crimea was its strategic anchor, but Putin desired a land bridge that extended from Russia to Crimea, connected with the Ukrainian port city of Odesa, and ended in Moldova thereby securing Transnistria as well.

Fortunately for Moldova and NATO, Putin never made it past Kherson in southern Ukraine. Plus, as covered earlier today in our daily column at The Washington Star, Moldova and Romania are exploring reuniting as one country.

If they do, NATO by default will expand eastward. Either way, Putin has already lost. Moldova is now out of reach.

***

THE VIKINGS ENTER THE CHAT

One of Putin’s many and ever-changing justifications for invading Ukraine was to stop NATO’s eastward expansion. It was, of course, simply a cover story for domestic and international media consumption.

Tucker Carlson naively bought it and is still buying it. We did not and never will. NATO is a defensive alliance, and its war plans stop at expelling Russia from member-state territory. They do not include any plans to invade Russia.

However, Putin’s war justification proved to be self-defeating as well. Finland and Sweden, historically proud of their neutrality, suddenly realized being inside of NATO was a lot safer than being outside of it in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

NATO, as a result, got significantly bigger and in doing so, it turned the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake.

Plus, and this is where Carlson should take note, the Kremlin in effect proved it was not worried about a NATO-led invasion of Belarus or Russia, because Moscow pulled elite Russian troops from Kaliningrad to reinforce “Force Z” as losses mounted on the battlefields of Ukraine.

Strategically, Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO was a huge loss to Putin, and especially damaging to his long-term military designs on Russia forcefully reabsorbing the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

***

PUTIN IS BLEEDING OUT RUSSIA

To date, Russian dead and wounded on the battlefields of Ukraine are approaching 1.4 million casualties. To put that into perspective, these casualties represent approximately 1 in 29 Russian men aged 18 to 60.

The casualties are disproportionately male and that is a big deal in a country already suffering from low fertility rates.Russia’s existing and future workforce and military are at stake. Putin’s war in Ukraine has already subtracted 3.5% of its male workforce.

This is not sustainable. It also likely accounts for why Russia during 2026 thus far cannot replace soldiers lost in Ukraine with new recruits.

Plus, given labor shortages caused by the war, if Putin opts to draft more Russian men, he will only undermine his war economy.

***

UKRAINE IS BLEEDING OUT RUSSIA’S ECONOMY

The Armed Forces of Ukraine’s sustained drone attacks on Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure and logistics are beginning to bring segments of the Russian economy to a halt. There are daily reports of fuel shortages. Plus civilian gas rationing is underway in 56 regions in Russia and throughout Russian-occupied Crimea.

As we observed in our column at The Hill today, even Vladimir Solovyov, who is considered one of Putin’s top propagandists, is worried. During a recent episode of his top-rated Russia-1 prime time show, he lashed out at Russia’s central bank and held it responsible for the country running out of money.

Putin’s economy, like his war machine, is running on empty.

***

CSTO BITES THE DUST

Funny thing about losing wars. They tend to cause your allies to lose faith in you. Some hedge their bets, like Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is doing when it comes to Putin as we pointed out in The Washington Star.

Others, like Armenia, simply say enough is enough. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan did just that in December 2024 when he said his country was past the “point of no return” in terms of leaving the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

The CSTO was envisioned as a post-Soviet Union counter to NATO. It worked until it did not anymore.

It still exists, but like everything else in Putin’s would-be empire, it too is running on fumes and is incapable of confronting NATO.

***

PUTIN’S MIDEAST LOSSES

Russia began its war in Ukraine with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a pro-Russian ally, still in charge despite a raging bloody civil war. Assad was key to securing the safety of Russia’s military and naval bases in Syria.

These facilities were key to the Kremlin’s ability to project military force into the Middle East and eastern Mediterranean Sea. They also helped supply Moscow’s paramilitary forces operating in the Sahel in Sub-Saharan Africa.

By December 8^th, 2024, Russia’s military posture in Syria was dealt a severe blow when Assad was forced to flee and seek asylum in Moscow.

Elsewhere, during the 12-Day War in June 2025, as well as now during the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, Putin has been largely incapable of decisively coming to Tehran’s military aid.

The Axis of Evil was once a thing.

Now?

Two of its members — Russia and Iran — are down for the count.

***

THE DRAGON’S BEAR

Prior to February 24^th, 2022, Russia and China essentially were equals in what is known as the Dragon Bear alliance. However, like Roman emperors before him, a funny thing happened to Putin on his way to Kyiv’s forum.

Russia has become China’s bear. The Chinese Dragon, headed by Chinese President Xi Jinping, is now the senior partner in the alliance. Putin, in the process, has become Xi’s modern-day version of Benito Mussolini.

Interestingly, Chinese companies in 2023 started printing maps showing disputed territories in eastern Russia as belonging to China. Putin, wittingly or not, has set himself up for the Chinese dragon to begin eating the Russian bear.

***

CRIMEA OR BUST

We have long held that Crimea is the decisive terrain of this war. It also will likely prove decisive in determining Putin’s fate.

Lose it and he is finished. Yet, if he tries to keep it, he may lose the Donbas or his economy in the process.

There is one silver lining in all of this, at least for future historians. They will likely only have to write five years or so of Putin’s history to record his decline and fall as opposed to Gibbon covering nearly 14 centuries.

Meanwhile, Putin shows no outward signs that he gets it that his would-be Russian empire is collapsing all around him.

***

ICYMI #1

Earlier today, in our regular weekly Thursday 7 AM ET national security column at The Hill in Washington, D.C., we chronicled Ukraine’s 4-plus year effort to increasingly isolate the Crimean peninsula and make it untenable for Russian occupation forces.

Thanks to our readers, it hit #1 at The Hill and ended the day that way. We are truly grateful for your readership and the help you gave us today to amplify our messaging: Ukraine is winning and Putin’s regime is likely to meet its end in Crimea. We cannot do this without you and be assured that we humbly never lose sight of that.

Photo credit: AP. An undated photograph of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

You can read it here.

***

ICYMI #2

Earlier today, in our regular weekday foreign affairs column at The Washington Star, we examined the effort of Romania and Moldova to reunite as one country. If it eventually succeeds, it would be yet another blow to Putin.

Not only would Moldova become a member of NATO by default, but it would also further imperil Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway province.

Photo credit: Belarus’ Presidential Office. The map behind Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in March 2022 showed a possible Russian invasion of Moldova.

You can read it here. It is not paywalled at our request.

***

ICYMI #3

Earlier today, Mark appeared on Q News In-Depth newsmagazine show in Cairo, Egypt. Q News is the English-speaking outlet of Al Qahera News TV.

The segment revolved around NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s comments to Trump yesterday in the Oval Office wherein he said NATO member states, including Italy, had supported U.S. operations in Iran.

After their meeting, Iran accused NATO of being complicit. Mark objected to the word complicit. He pushed back saying NATO is a defensive organization and that as such they were partners.

You can watch it here.

***

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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

This version is open for everyone to read.

Thank you.

Jon & Mark

June 24th, 2026

Greetings!

The first item in the 14-Point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed by the Islamic Republic of Iran and the U.S. last week calls for “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon … ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.”

Photo Credit: Eric Lee/Pool Photo via AP. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio upon his arrival at Al Bateen Executive Airport, in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, June 23, 2026.

But as Secretary of State Marko Rubio told reporters yesterday upon his arrival at Al Bateen Executive Airport, in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates:

“The future of Lebanon belongs to the Lebanese people through their sovereign elected government, and that’s who we’re going to be working with.”

“There’s an Iranian issue with regard to Lebanon, and that is their support and sponsorship of Hezbollah, and so that factor will be discussed as part of our conversations with the Iranians.”

Tehran should be careful what it asks for – the conditions mandated in item one of the MoU may result in the loss of Hezbollah, their presence in Lebanon, and Iran’s ability to project force upon Israel.

‘Territorial integrity and sovereignty’ for Lebanon comes with a price tag – Iran’s Hezbollah proxy can no longer occupy Lebanon. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may be running out of Schlitz.

***

IN SEARCH OF A SOLUTION FOR LEBANON

Hezbollah is determined to continue its decades-long occupation of Lebanon.

Tehran is determined to make that happen through the use of the first point in the MoU as a tool to get the U.S. to pressure Israel into doing what they cannot achieve. From Iran’s perspective the remaining 13 points are contingent upon Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon – a.k.a. create leverage.

And by design, any reprisal attacks by Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) against Hezbollah terrorists attacking Israel can – and will be – used by Iran to halt negotiations and apply pressure on Israel by the U.S.

However, as we stated in The Washington Star last night, “that did not work for Russian President Vladimir Putin with Ukraine in the Donbas, and it is not likely to work with Israel in Lebanon. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose their national security over unilateral ‘deals’ that President Donald Trump made with Russia and Iran.”

Israel has stated repeatedly – most recently by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich – that it will not withdraw their forces from southern Lebanon as long as the Iranian-backed Hezbollah terrorist group remains active.

On Sunday, the IDF validated their occupation of southern Lebanon when they uncovered a massive tunnel complex near the village of Majdal Zoun – less than 4 miles from the Israeli border – where Hezbollah “built an underground drone ‘airbase’ from which it launched Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicles at Israel.”

And Lebanon wants Hezbollah gone.

Photo Credit: CNN. Lebanese president accuses Iran of using his country as a bargaining chip in peace talks with the U.S.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour two weeks ago, “You [Iran] are not trying to help us … the people of Lebanon are paying the price … for the sake of your own interest. Our interests … do not coincide with your interests.” He added that the “Lebanese people are fed up with war between Israel and Hezbollah,” and that “It’s not your [Iran] country, it’s our country … we want to live in peace.”

On Tuesday, the head of Lebanon’s Kataeb Party, Samy Gemayel echoed that sentiment stating, “We will not coexist with Hezbollah regardless of the outcome of the negotiations. We will not coexist with this militia and its weapons. Hezbollah must abide by the state’s conditions. Most Lebanese are not prepared to live as hostages of Hezbollah any longer.

But it’s not just the politicians. Lebanese TV Host Walid Abboud used his platform to deliver a message to Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem and his followers, which made his guests a little nervous:

“Leave us. Yes, leave us. Take your weapons, your drones, your rockets, your mouthpieces, your flags, your Supreme Leader, your Iran and your [Resistance] Axis. Leave us. Your ‘great’ Iran has planted a nuclear bomb in our midst, and justified its existence in the name of ‘Honor,’ while we, and your own people, are consumed by wars and killed by hunger. As for your Godly party [Hezbollah], it planted drones and weapons throughout Lebanon, claiming that it is here to save Lebanon, but lo and behold, it’s finishing Lebanon off. Stop hijacking us. Stop putting our dreams in chains. Stop plundering our economy. Stop killing our children. Stop blackmailing us and the world. I say this loud and clear: Leave us. We no longer see you as a resistance [movement]. When we look at you all we see is the din [sic] of war, and all we smell is death. Your weaponry has turned into noise rather than shield, prison rather than shelter. Your underground drone factories resemble the graves of our dreams above it. Leave us. You are not our destiny, and we will not be held hostage by your delusions. Who told you that your weapons that abide by the orders of Qom and Tehran constitute resistance? Who told you that loyalty to Iran is tantamount to patriotism? Go away and settle in those far away lands. This Iran of yours will not reject you. After all you exchanged with it bread, salt, weapons, gold, a lot of money and Captagon. Iran will not give you a cold shoulder, after all the love you have shown it. Go away, we want to live in peace. Leave us.

Watch the Video here: https://www.facebook.com/reel/1731968144487297

***

QASSEM SAYS ISRAEL MUST WITHDRAW FROM LEBANON

But Qassem does not share Aoun, Gemayel or Abboud’s perspective – in his world, Lebanon is an extension of Iran. Hezbollah governs Lebanon, and the IRGC supports them.

Photo Credit: Wael Hamzeh/EPA, via Shutterstock. Naim Qassem at a memorial ceremony for senior Hezbollah commanders near Beirut, Lebanon, in June.

According to Qassem, “We now have a ceasefire. The withdrawal must take place according to a timetable. Israel has no choice but to fully withdrawal from all Lebanese territory, without retaining an inch.”

He added that “We are cooperating with the Lebanese Army to the fullest extent. Israel has no role in what we agree upon internally, and it must be prevented from interfering.”

According to Qassem, “Israel has no right to interfere in Lebanon’s internal affairs.” If that isn’t the pot calling the kettle black, we don’t know what is.

As Rubio stated, “A careful reading of the MoU will see that when you talk about, for example, a complete end of hostilities in the entire region, well that’s not possible. You can’t have the end of hostilities and conflicts in the region as long as Iranian proxies are launching missiles and drones from Iraq and are participating in terrorism like Hamas did and like Hezbollah did.”

Trump needs to find a solution for Lebanon and Iran’s proxy network that includes Hamas, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Shi’a militias in Iraq.

***

HEZBOLLAH IS GOING TO BE A PROBLEM

As we saw last week, IRGC advisors will continue to use their Hezbollah proxy to attack Israel at Tehran’s behest whenever they deem it necessary.

Trump sent a stern warning to Iran on Truth Social Sunday telling Tehran that they “must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!”

But his constant threats to use force are losing their effectiveness. The IRGC, under the leadership of Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, doesn’t believe him. Vahidi believes he has ‘tamed President Trump’ and issued the following command guidance: “We must make the Americans understand that Israel is the harmful actor in the Middle East. That is the goal.”

The IRGC ultimately is the problem. Hezbollah is the tool.

The solution to Lebanon is not the establishment of a deconfliction cell – that would only validate Hezbollah’s continued occupation of the region.

In order to obtain a ‘permenent termination of the war in Lebanon’ both Hezbollah and IDF forces will have to withdraw from the region and return it to its rightful owner – the Lebanese people.

Hezbollah must be disarmed, its infrastructure in southern Lebanon dismantled, and then physically escorted out of southern Lebanon before Israel would ever withdraw its forces – after validating the process.

Finding the right force to execute this mission is the challenge – and it would have to be led by the U.S.

The Lebanese Armed Forces – in its current capacity – cannot accomplish this on its own, and the United Nations has demonstrated over the past 20 years it cannot enforce its own Security Council Resolutions. In this case 1701 in 2006, which called for the full cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, the withdrawal of Hezbollah and other forces from Lebanon south of the Litani River, the disarmament of Hezbollah and other armed groups, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon — with no armed forces other than the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in Lebanon and Lebanese military south of the Litani — and Lebanon’s need to fully exert government control.

***

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

If not carefully managed and accounted for, those billions of dollars in unfrozen assets, sanctions relief, and income generated from the sale of oil will simply find their way back to Iran’s proxies and their ballistic missile and drone programs.

Iran’s strength is asymmetric warfare waged under and at the behest of the IRGC.

***

PROGRAMMING NOTE

Tomorrow, in our weekly Thursday 7 AM column at The Hill in Washington, D.C., we detail how Putin will likely meet his end in Crimea.

You can read it here when it goes live.

***

ICYMI

In our daily weekday column at The Washington Star we examine how Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko cried uncle to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. We also cover the lights going out in Russian occupied Crimea and the start of RIMPAC in the Pacific.

Photo credit:

You can read it here.

***

Subscribe now

Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.

Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

Greetings!

The first item in the 14-Point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed by the Islamic Republic of Iran and the U.S. last week calls for “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon … ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.”

Photo Credit: Eric Lee/Pool Photo via AP. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio upon his arrival at Al Bateen Executive Airport, in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, June 23, 2026.

But as Secretary of State Marko Rubio told reporters yesterday upon his arrival at Al Bateen Executive Airport, in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates:

“The future of Lebanon belongs to the Lebanese people through their sovereign elected government, and that’s who we’re going to be working with.”

“There’s an Iranian issue with regard to Lebanon, and that is their support and sponsorship of Hezbollah, and so that factor will be discussed as part of our conversations with the Iranians.”

Tehran should be careful what it asks for – the conditions mandated in item one of the MoU may result in the loss of Hezbollah, their presence in Lebanon, and Iran’s ability to project force upon Israel.

‘Territorial integrity and sovereignty’ for Lebanon comes with a price tag – Iran’s Hezbollah proxy can no longer occupy Lebanon. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may be running out of Schlitz.

***

IN SEARCH OF A SOLUTION FOR LEBANON

Hezbollah is determined to continue its decades-long occupation of Lebanon.

Tehran is determined to make that happen through the use of the first point in the MoU as a tool to get the U.S. to pressure Israel into doing what they cannot achieve. From Iran’s perspective the remaining 13 points are contingent upon Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon – a.k.a. create leverage.

And by design, any reprisal attacks by Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) against Hezbollah terrorists attacking Israel can – and will be – used by Iran to halt negotiations and apply pressure on Israel by the U.S.

However, as we stated in The Washington Star last night, “that did not work for Russian President Vladimir Putin with Ukraine in the Donbas, and it is not likely to work with Israel in Lebanon. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose their national security over unilateral ‘deals’ that President Donald Trump made with Russia and Iran.”

Israel has stated repeatedly – most recently by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich – that it will not withdraw their forces from southern Lebanon as long as the Iranian-backed Hezbollah terrorist group remains active.

On Sunday, the IDF validated their occupation of southern Lebanon when they uncovered a massive tunnel complex near the village of Majdal Zoun – less than 4 miles from the Israeli border – where Hezbollah “built an underground drone ‘airbase’ from which it launched Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicles at Israel.”

And Lebanon wants Hezbollah gone.

Photo Credit: CNN. Lebanese president accuses Iran of using his country as a bargaining chip in peace talks with the U.S.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour two weeks ago, “You [Iran] are not trying to help us … the people of Lebanon are paying the price … for the sake of your own interest. Our interests … do not coincide with your interests.” He added that the “Lebanese people are fed up with war between Israel and Hezbollah,” and that “It’s not your [Iran] country, it’s our country … we want to live in peace.”

On Tuesday, the head of Lebanon’s Kataeb Party, Samy Gemayel echoed that sentiment stating, “We will not coexist with Hezbollah regardless of the outcome of the negotiations. We will not coexist with this militia and its weapons. Hezbollah must abide by the state’s conditions. Most Lebanese are not prepared to live as hostages of Hezbollah any longer.

But it’s not just the politicians. Lebanese TV Host Walid Abboud used his platform to deliver a message to Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem and his followers, which made his guests a little nervous:

“Leave us. Yes, leave us. Take your weapons, your drones, your rockets, your mouthpieces, your flags, your Supreme Leader, your Iran and your [Resistance] Axis. Leave us. Your ‘great’ Iran has planted a nuclear bomb in our midst, and justified its existence in the name of ‘Honor,’ while we, and your own people, are consumed by wars and killed by hunger. As for your Godly party [Hezbollah], it planted drones and weapons throughout Lebanon, claiming that it is here to save Lebanon, but lo and behold, it’s finishing Lebanon off. Stop hijacking us. Stop putting our dreams in chains. Stop plundering our economy. Stop killing our children. Stop blackmailing us and the world. I say this loud and clear: Leave us. We no longer see you as a resistance [movement]. When we look at you all we see is the din [sic] of war, and all we smell is death. Your weaponry has turned into noise rather than shield, prison rather than shelter. Your underground drone factories resemble the graves of our dreams above it. Leave us. You are not our destiny, and we will not be held hostage by your delusions. Who told you that your weapons that abide by the orders of Qom and Tehran constitute resistance? Who told you that loyalty to Iran is tantamount to patriotism? Go away and settle in those far away lands. This Iran of yours will not reject you. After all you exchanged with it bread, salt, weapons, gold, a lot of money and Captagon. Iran will not give you a cold shoulder, after all the love you have shown it. Go away, we want to live in peace. Leave us.

Watch the Video here: https://www.facebook.com/reel/1731968144487297

***

QASSEM SAYS ISRAEL MUST WITHDRAW FROM LEBANON

But Qassem does not share Aoun, Gemayel or Abboud’s perspective – in his world, Lebanon is an extension of Iran. Hezbollah governs Lebanon, and the IRGC supports them.

Photo Credit: Wael Hamzeh/EPA, via Shutterstock. Naim Qassem at a memorial ceremony for senior Hezbollah commanders near Beirut, Lebanon, in June.

According to Qassem, “We now have a ceasefire. The withdrawal must take place according to a timetable. Israel has no choice but to fully withdrawal from all Lebanese territory, without retaining an inch.”

He added that “We are cooperating with the Lebanese Army to the fullest extent. Israel has no role in what we agree upon internally, and it must be prevented from interfering.”

According to Qassem, “Israel has no right to interfere in Lebanon’s internal affairs.” If that isn’t the pot calling the kettle black, we don’t know what is.

As Rubio stated, “A careful reading of the MoU will see that when you talk about, for example, a complete end of hostilities in the entire region, well that’s not possible. You can’t have the end of hostilities and conflicts in the region as long as Iranian proxies are launching missiles and drones from Iraq and are participating in terrorism like Hamas did and like Hezbollah did.”

Trump needs to find a solution for Lebanon and Iran’s proxy network that includes Hamas, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Shi’a militias in Iraq.

***

HEZBOLLAH IS GOING TO BE A PROBLEM

As we saw last week, IRGC advisors will continue to use their Hezbollah proxy to attack Israel at Tehran’s behest whenever they deem it necessary.

Trump sent a stern warning to Iran on Truth Social Sunday telling Tehran that they “must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!”

But his constant threats to use force are losing their effectiveness. The IRGC, under the leadership of Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, doesn’t believe him. Vahidi believes he has ‘tamed President Trump’ and issued the following command guidance: “We must make the Americans understand that Israel is the harmful actor in the Middle East. That is the goal.”

The IRGC ultimately is the problem. Hezbollah is the tool.

The solution to Lebanon is not the establishment of a deconfliction cell – that would only validate Hezbollah’s continued occupation of the region.

In order to obtain a ‘permenent termination of the war in Lebanon’ both Hezbollah and IDF forces will have to withdraw from the region and return it to its rightful owner – the Lebanese people.

Hezbollah must be disarmed, its infrastructure in southern Lebanon dismantled, and then physically escorted out of southern Lebanon before Israel would ever withdraw its forces – after validating the process.

Finding the right force to execute this mission is the challenge – and it would have to be led by the U.S.

The Lebanese Armed Forces – in its current capacity – cannot accomplish this on its own, and the United Nations has demonstrated over the past 20 years it cannot enforce its own Security Council Resolutions. In this case 1701 in 2006, which called for the full cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, the withdrawal of Hezbollah and other forces from Lebanon south of the Litani River, the disarmament of Hezbollah and other armed groups, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon — with no armed forces other than the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in Lebanon and Lebanese military south of the Litani — and Lebanon’s need to fully exert government control.

***

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

If not carefully managed and accounted for, those billions of dollars in unfrozen assets, sanctions relief, and income generated from the sale of oil will simply find their way back to Iran’s proxies and their ballistic missile and drone programs.

Iran’s strength is asymmetric warfare waged under and at the behest of the IRGC.

***

PROGRAMMING NOTE

Tomorrow, in our weekly Thursday 7 AM column at The Hill in Washington, D.C., we detail how Putin will likely meet his end in Crimea.

You can read it here when it goes live.

***

ICYMI

In our daily weekday column at The Washington Star we examine how Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko cried uncle to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. We also cover the lights going out in Russian occupied Crimea and the start of RIMPAC in the Pacific.

Photo credit:

You can read it here.

***

Subscribe now

Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.

Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

Greetings!

Three years ago today, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a man we once argued was aiming to be Russian President Vladimir Putin’s king, began his Wagner Group mutiny against the Kremlin by marching northward from Belgorod to Moscow.

Prigozhin failed. Exactly two months later the private military company chief was assassinated when a private jet carrying him exploded and crashed on the outskirts of the Russian capital killing everyone on board.

Russia, in retrospect, might have been better off had Prigozhin succeeded. Certainly, he was no hero. In many ways, he was the classic definition of a psychopath and his reign of terror extended from Russia to Ukraine to the Sahel in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Early on, Prigozhin strategically understood something Putin still does not. The Russian military, on a conventional basis, is incapable of defeating Ukraine. Now, Putin is at risk of losing Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula that he illegally seized and annexed in 2014.

The writing was on the wall that this day was coming as early as late 2022. We noted then at The Hill in Washington, D.C. that Putin’s swan song might be in Crimea.

Photo credit: Vantor. Oil tanks on fire near the Kerch Bridge in Russian-occupied Crimea on June 21^st, 2026.

In doing so, we pointed out that Putin could ill afford to lose Crimea militarily or symbolically — especially since the peninsula then afforded Russia critical land-based access to its naval base at Sevastopol.

Yet now that facility is largely empty courtesy of Ukraine. It was once home to Moscow’s Black Sea Fleet and the Kremlin’s primary means of projecting power throughout the Black Sea and into the NATO-dominated Mediterranean.

Once upon a time, Crimea’s air defense assets and coast defense units located on the strategic peninsula guarded Russia’s southern flank from NATO. Fast forward to today and many of those assets are destroyed and Russian forces are struggling to defend their southern flank from Ukrainian attacks.

NATO, as a result, would have a cakewalk into Russia’s southern flank if Putin were ever foolish enough to attack the West as he did yet again today. Putin can talk the talk, but the reality is his military can no longer walk the walk.

Since Prigozhin’s mutiny, Russia’s losses have been staggering. As we noted at the time, Russia had already incurred more than 100,000 casualties, lost an estimated 50 percent of the Ukrainian territory it seized in the opening days of Putin’s ‘Special Military Operation,’ and was being forced to dig in in the Donbas and Crimea.

As of today, Russian dead and wounded in Ukraine are nearly 14 times greater. In addition to 1,394,530 casualties, Russia’s economy is imploding. Plus, its armies, despite small tactical gains in the Donbas, are effectively stalled, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are increasingly taking the war to Moscow and St. Petersburg.

The AFU is also getting closer and closer to turning Crimea into the decisive terrain of the war. Indeed, as Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, the Commander of the Unmanned System Forces of the AFU, said today, “Moscow will fall in Ukraine.”

Let’s get started finding out how.

***

CRIMEA IS SINKING

Putin likely started this war believing that the Crimean peninsula was his strategic equivalent of British Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s Fortress Singapore during the early years of World War II.

In Churchill’s mind, Singapore Island was an unsinkable aircraft carrier. The strategic island is located at the southern end of the Malay Peninsula in Southeast Asia and Churchill believed it was impenetrable.

On February 8^th, 1942, the Japanese Imperial Army proved him wrong by landing three divisions on the island. One week later, Lt. Gen. A.E. Percival, the commander of a 90,000 British Commonwealth army, was forced to surrender. It was the largest single British military loss in the United Kingdom’s history.

Putin, no doubt given his fondness of history, gets the parallel and sees — indeed, likely fears — the same thing happening to him in Crimea. Churchill was able to survive the loss of Singapore in large part because it was overshadowed by the U.S. entry into World War II.

Putin likely cannot survive the loss of Crimea. The Russian President started this war as a would-be Peter the Great. He is likely to end it as a disgraced modern-day Rasputin.

***

CRIMEA IS BURNING

As we pen tonight’s edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report, there is breaking news that the AFU attacked “a large Russian weapons depot in Kirovske, Crimea.” Note the Russian name is Kirovskoye. The small town that houses a Russian military base is located in the southeastern part of the peninsula.

***

TURNING CRIMEA INTO A SINKABLE ISLAND

Essentially, the AFU is methodically turning Crimea into an island. Getting here today began in the early days of the war when Ukraine began to systematically destroy Russia’s vaunted Black Sea Fleet.

It was a remarkable undertaking given that Ukraine effectively has no navy to speak of. The AFU’s success at sea is largely being accomplished by naval drones and unmanned aerial attacks on Moscow’s ships and submarines. Ditto the Russian navy’s air defense assets.

The Kremlin’s inability to protect its base in Sevastopol forced Russia to begin moving what was left of its Black Sea Fleet to Novorossiysk and other Russian bases. By February of this year, the fleet was all but gone from Crimea.

Simultaneous to the AFU’s pummeling of Putin’s Black Sea Fleet, Kyiv also began systematically destroying Russia’s air defense assets on the Crimean Peninsula. Now, as Ukraine’s latest deep- and medium-strike weapons are coming online en masse, Crimea is more exposed than ever to AFU aerial strikes.

Yet it is not just the growing vulnerability of Crimea itself that is endangering Putin’s hold on the peninsula. It is the AFU’s multi-layered assaults on the Kremlin’s supply lines — sea, land, and air — that are slowly setting up Crimea for the kill.

Putin’s vaunted land bridge — a bridge he once dreamed of expanding westward all the way through the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Odessa to Moldova — is under daily attack by Ukrainian drones. Traffic is now limited to military vehicles and convoys.

Slowly but surely, Ukraine is choking Moscow’s ability to sustain its military forces on Crimea. Ditto its civilians and Russian tourists who still, despite the war, continue to flock to the Black Sea’s picturesque beaches. As noted by reporting in the Washington Post today, Russians are reporting widespread fuel shortages across Crimea.

Only the $4 billion Kerch Bridge remains linking Crimea to the Russian mainland. That is, it remains for now. The AFU appears to be setting conditions to drop the Kerch Bridge in the coming weeks.

We think we know when it is likely to happen. But we are not out to help Russia figure that out at Ukraine’s expense, so for now we will keep it to ourselves. Purely as a marker, take note of ‘220.’ We will let you know if we got it right or wrong.

***

TURNING THE LIGHTS OUT

The AFU is actively working to make Crimea untenable. As Fox News reported earlier today, Ukraine “hit a railway bridge, a power plant and other key sites as part of an effort to isolate the peninsula from Russian supply lines.”

Plus, the Kyiv Independent is reporting that more than half of Crimea is without electricity today due to fuel rationing and AFU strikes on critical energy infrastructure. Putin is notorious for weaponizing winter against Ukraine. Chalk one up for Zelensky by weaponizing summer against the Russians in Crimea.

***

PUTIN IS IN DENIAL

Putin does not appear to get it that he is on the verge of losing. Yet again today, he acted as if there was nothing to see here, implying that victory was assured in the long run.

Denial is a thing.

However, Putin should take note of one thing. Purportedly, the talk of the G7 Summit in Geneva last week was how impressed President Donald Trump was with Ukraine’s unrelenting deep strikes in Russia.

Suddenly, although we never doubted it, Ukraine has a lot of cards to play. Expect Zelensky and his generals to play more of them in Crimea.

When they do, let Putin’s swan song finally begin: ‘Cri-me-a River.’

***

ICYMI #1

Earlier today, in our regular weekday foreign affairs column at The Washington Star, we examined the White Elephant in the room when it comes to the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran: Hezbollah.

Either Hezbollah gets disarmed and disbanded or peace in the Mideast, including peace between the U.S. and Iran, is not likely to happen any time soon.

Photo credit: White House. JD Vance did not address the Lebanon issue in Switzerland Friday.

You can read it here. It is not paywalled at our request.

***

ICYMI #2

Mark was on Alghad TV News in Cairo, Egypt earlier today. His fellow guest panelist, an Iranian regime supporter, appeared from Iran.

Predictably, he argued Iran was in the right, the U.S. in the wrong, and that Tehran essentially had all the cards. He also claimed that Iran would not allow unfettered International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) snap inspections.

Mark countered saying without them then the MOU would be dead on arrival on Capitol Hill and eventually at the White House.

You can watch it here. The segment is in Arabic. Mark’s half hour appearance begins after the 30-minute hash mark.

***

Subscribe now

Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

Greetings and Happy Monday!

Hope all the Father’s out there had a great Father’s Day – you deserve it!

Photo Credit: Alexander KAZAKOV / POOL / AFP. Russian President Vladimir Putin talks to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) at the Palace of Independence in Astana on May 29, 2026.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko didn’t. On Friday Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gave the dictator one week “to withdraw Russian military equipment from areas near Ukraine’s border.”

According to Zelensky, signal relay stations located in two Belarusian regions on the border with Ukraine and are being used by Russian forces to help with the navigation process to attack Ukrainian civilians.

Then came the ultimatum: “If he [Lukashenko] doesn’t do it, we’ll [Ukraine] do it.”

As the CBS Fantasy Football draft narrator would say, Lukashenko is “on the clock.”

***

ERODING CONFIDENCE IN RUSSIA

As we wrote last week in The Hill, “President Vladimir Putin’s Russian Federation is taking on water. Like the Titanic, it has struck an immovable object — in this case Ukraine — and it is sinking fast.”

Multiple drone strikes delivered by Kyiv against Russian cities once considered ‘safe zones’ and ‘off limits’ – Putin’s hometown of St. Petersburg and the capital city of Moscow – exposed Russian air defense vulnerabilities.

Despite assurances to the Russian public by Putin after the intitial drone strike on the St. Petersburg oil terminal and the Kronstadt naval base at the onset of the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum of 2026, Ukrainian drones found their targets again two days later, then completed a ‘double tap’ of the Moscow Oil Terminal last Thursday.

Photo Credit: Ukraine Defense Ministry. A meme was born when Ukraine knocked the lid off the major Moscow oil refinery today.

The Russian air defense system that Putin acknowledged needed improvement and strengthening fittingly fired the errant shot that blew the top off an oil tanker in a spectacular fashion.

Those exposed air defense vulnerabilities did not go unnoticed by Russia’s neighbor – and ally – to the West: Belarus.

***

DOUBTS IN MINSK

The once confident and assured dictator standing in the shadow of his puppet master all of sudden has doubts as to whether or not Putin could – or even would – defend Belarus from a Ukrainian drone strike.

The Kremlin’s track record certainly doesn’t espouse confidence – look no further than Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran.

And Putin has his own problems – coming to the aid of his Mussolini-like puppet in Minsk is not in the cards. He has already deployed tactical nuclear weapons and Oreshnik hypersonic missiles to Belarus at the bequest of a paranoid Lukashenko to prevent a NATO invasion.

Ukrainian long-range sanctions have reached Moscow. As Zelensky posted on X, “Moscow is feeling the reach of Ukraine’s long range capabilities.” As a result – Putin’s economy is in shambles.

The same Ukrainian drones that created havoc in St. Petersburg and Moscow are having an equally devastating effect on targets logistically sustaining Russian ground forces in the Crimean peninsula – bridges, convoys, ferries, railways and ports.

Photo Credit: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Crimea will become an Island.

Medium range drones are rapidly making Crimea isolated and untenable. The Kerch Strait Bridge is the one remaining artery to the peninsula. And wouldn’t that just be the Royal Flush of poker hands should Zelensky decide to drop the bridge on July 4th – America’s 250th Independence Day.

And in the close fight, Ukrainian devised – and enforced – ‘kill zones’ are attriting Russian forces by as many as 30,000 a month. Casualties will likely surpass 1.4 million by the end of this week. The Donbas region is becoming more and more out of reach for Putin and his Generals as Russian ground forces continue to lose terrain in Ukraine.

Zelensky has painted Lukashenko into a corner. There is no calvary.

***

STRADDLING THE FENCE

Lukashenko finds himself in a precarious situation. He is struggling to find balance between his support to Putin while not further antagonizing Ukraine. The month of June has made that harder.

As we previously stated in The Washington Star, he owes his political existence to Putin, has stated his country’s military and defense cooperation with Russia remains intact, and that Minsk is prepared to “defend Moscow, if necessary” – just not in Ukraine or against NATO.

Zelensky – though probably more so Kyrylo Budanov and Robert Brovdi, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Commander – scares Lukashenko. Put more specifically – Ukraine’s use of drones in the close, medium, and deep fights.

This was evident in his recent comment: “So they’re [Ukraine] striking targets. They’re not hitting the front. The Ukrainians are striking civilians, historical and cultural monuments, oil refineries, and factories. They’re striking all over Russia, all the way to the Urals, with drones. That’s the kind of war we have now.”

Last week he acknowledged that “Belarus is very vulnerable militarily, because Belarus is exposed to the Ukrainian military like we are in the open palm of their hand. We fully understand that our key life-support facilities – industrial and logistical – would come under attack.”

He knows he can’t defend himself from Ukrainian drones, Putin isn’t likely to come to his rescue, and that majority of Belarusians do not want to participate in the war directly.

A trifecta of bad outcomes – Zelensky, Putin and Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya — political opposition leader and self-described Belarusian president-elect currently living in exile in Lithuania.

And he does’t want any of that – specifically, being on the receiving end of the “500 potential targets in Belarus” that Brovdi warned he would strike should Lukashenko take “actions that could further draw Minsk into the war.”

Ukraine doesn’t mince words – nor do they ask permission anymore. Lukashenko would later walk back previous remarks he made about Zelensky that may have been offensive, saying “Perhaps I overdid it here and there.”

Begging forgiveness from Putin may be the better course of action – but open windows in Moscow can be hazardous to one’s health.

***

WE DO NOT WANT TO FIGHT WITH THEM

Two weeks ago Lukashenko said “I want the Poles, Lithuanians and Ukrainians to hear me. We do not want to fight with them.” He then ruled out sending troops to fight in Ukraine, saying his soldiers would not become “cannon fodder for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war.”

Zelensky is holding him to that – and giving him an opportunity to live up to his words. “When Mr. Lukashenko says he does not want to be drawn into the war, he should be honest, at least with his own people.”

That wasn’t the tune Lukashenko was singing on February 5th, 2022 when he told Kremlin propagandist Volodymyr Solovyev, “Against our united efforts, Ukraine has no chance. In case of a war, it will last 3-4 days. Ukraine has no one to fight us. The Ukrainians would be crazy if they collided with Russia.”

Six months later he boasted, “We are the only country that supports the Russians in this struggle.”

Lukashenko can’t undo what he has already done – and that’s support Putin’s invasion of Ukraine from day one. But he can stop supporting Putin’s war effort.

That means removing the signaling equipment used by the Kremlin to target Ukraine. “What’s the point of saying he [Lukashenko] doesn’t want to be in the war? Let him remove this equipment, let him switch it off … If he doesn’t do it, ⁠we’ll do it.”

Zelenskyy also called out Belarus’s oil refining assets, alleging the country had become a major supplier to Russia and that Lukashenko could put a stop to it. “Today he is the main supplier, or one of the main suppliers, for the Russian Army. Can this be stopped? I’m sure it’s within his power. And he’s the one controlling it.”

***

OUR TAKE

Zelensky is calling out Lukashenko – who reminds us of the chihuahua safely behind a glass door [Russia] barking at an imposing bull dog [Ukraine] on the other side. Remove the barrier – the glass door – and suddenly the confrontation becomes nonconfrontational.

Russia is decisively enaged on their homefront, the Donbas, and Crimea. Putin simply doesn’t have the resources to divert to Belarus. Lukashenko knows it, and so does Zelensky, which makes life uncomfortable for the Belarusian dictator.

The ultimatum is both bold and audacious – designed to put Lukashenko on his heels. Ukraine has the resources, capability and willingness to execute the task – which always makes the threat credible.

But it also sends a message to Putin. Zelensky will not tolerate a demonstration along his northern border by the Russian proxy – nor the use of relay stations in Belarus by Russia to direct missiles and drones to their targets in Ukraine.

Zelensky’s intent is to deny further Belarusian support to Moscow – and he is prepared go kinetic if necessary.

To isolate Belarus from Russia.

No comment from Belarus yet – June 26th is just four days from now.

***

ICYMI. No interviews this weekend as we both took a knee to enjoy a Father’s Day weekend with our families. You can catch our latest National Security columns in today’s The Washington Star where we discuss the implications of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation and Vice President J.D. Vance comments on the status of negotiations with Iran in Obbürgen, Switzerland.

***

Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow.

Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.

Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

Greetings & Happy Father’s Day Weekend!

Today’s edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report is going to be tricky. Especially since we have painstakingly built our brand assuring readers and viewers that our approach to national security analysis is entirely apolitical.

By that, we mean we never infuse our own political views in our work. We truly are solely trying to build a community where fellow Americans — and indeed, citizens of our nation’s allies — of all political stripes can come together to focus on the most important national security issues impacting our global safety.

If we are doing that well, then it should mean readers and viewers can never tell whether we are Democrats, Republicans, or independents. We only analyze and criticize national security policies and decisions, not the political parties behind them.

You get to decide, at least here, your own political beliefs, party affiliations (or not) and who you vote for (or against!).

The only time we might interject is if a reader or a viewer suggests something truly out of this world. That happened to Mark last week while getting his hair cut. He had to assure his barber that despite each of us having been to the White House numerous times over the past four plus decades, neither of us have ever come across any lizard people.

Really.

Alas, Mark’s barber remains unconvinced.

Thus, Friday humor aside, as we dig into today’s issue, be assured we are not critiquing Vice President JD Vance as a Republican. Rather, we are solely pointing out that whether by design or his own diplomatic clumsiness, he is causing major misunderstandings between long-term U.S. allies on the global stage.

Photo credit: White House. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (left), President Donald Trump (center) and Vice President JD Vance meeting in the Oval Office of the White House on February 28^th, 2025.

In our view, President Donald Trump has a JD Vance problem when it comes to the global stage. Let’s get started understanding how and why that is jeopardizing U.S. national security interests.

***

PAST IS PROLOGUE

We first witnessed Vance’s propensity for stepping in it, as they say, on the global stage during the Oval Office meeting at the White House between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump on February 28^th, 2025.

Zelensky, only four days removed from the fourth anniversary of the start of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bloody invasion of Ukraine, was understandably emotionally raw and wary of Trump’s insistence that he could settle the war in a day. Forty minutes into that conversation, Vance, in effect, declared war on Zelensky.

Initially, Vance accused the Ukrainian president of being publicly rude to Trump, saying “I think it’s disrespectful for you to come into the Oval Office to try to litigate this in front of the American media.” Vance then further berated Zelensky and told him that, “You should be thanking the president.”

By then Trump had enough of the back and forth and accused Zelensky of not having “the cards right now” in reference to fighting Russia. Zelensky retorted, “I’m not playing cards. I’m a president in war.”

Yet as we have witnessed ever since, Ukraine has had numerous cards of their own making to play and play them they have against Russia.

Need an example?

Ukraine provided a definitive one on Thursday in a now iconic video when it blew the lid off of an oil tank at a Russian refinery in Moscow. Much of the Russian capital was then covered in black smoke as a result of the Ukraine long-range attack.

The memes on X and across social media came in fast and furious. Here is just one AI example posted by Douglas Davis on X of Zelensky sending Putin for a ride. The sticky note says “With love, from President Zelensky.

The relevant point here is that when it comes to geopolitical affairs, Vance time and time again is proving to be in over his head. Granted, as Mark pointed out today on Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt, it is important to bear in mind that Vance’s public posturing is often aimed at Trump’s most ardent political base.

Mark cautioned viewers across the Middle East not to assume that Vance’s criticisms of Israel were necessarily beliefs held by Trump or that the vice president’s comments were aimed or intended solely for audiences in Tehran or the region. Vance is obviously not in charge of U.S. foreign policy. Constitutionally that falls to Trump and by extension to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

We will leave it to the U.S. political experts to opine on whether that is sage domestic politics. Especially since we are not — and have no desire to be — political experts. However, we will state that on a geopolitical level, Vance’s ill-advised modus operandi of berating allies, as he did to Zelensky in 2025, is causing major damage.

***

OOPS, VANCE DID IT AGAIN

Fast forward to yesterday. Once again Vance was making headlines for criticizing a U.S. ally. Not just any ally, however, the only American ally that agreed to fight the Islamic Republic of Iran alongside U.S. forces.

Yet in a strange apparent attempt to curry favor with the enemy — meaning Iran here — Vance started attacking Israel. As an aside, we cannot help but notice this has become a White House theme: praise enemies while criticizing allies.

That may work in the short run. However, the long-term damage that it is doing to U.S. strategic global relationships will be difficult, if not impossible, to fully repair by future presidential administrations.

During his White House briefing on Thursday, Vance warned Israeli cabinet members that, “If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have left.”

It seemed completely lost on Vance that Israel, having been intentionally excluded from the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran, might have serious objections to a deal that provides for Tehran — a regime Jerusalem rightly perceives as an existential threat — to receive up to $500 million in oil and gas revenue a day and as much as $300 billion under a reconstruction fund.

Israel voicing those objections was more than fair. The Israel Defense Forces are the U.S.’ wartime ally.

If the U.S. wants — especially if it ever needs — future wartime allies, then Vance, whether he gets it or not, is laying the foundation for U.S. allies to be just as transactional as Trump’s White House is being against Israel.

That does not bode well for the future. U.S. national security is at its strongest when Washington is working in close partnership with its military allies around the world.

***

ISRAEL RESPONDS TO VANCE

As we noted earlier today in The Washington Star, Israel was not having it. Overnight, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the IDF to hit over 100 Hezbollah targets across Lebanon.

Israel essentially was sending Vance a harsh message: ‘You could not push Zelensky around and he ultimately proved you wrong, and you are not going to push us around either.’ Israel, as both of us have said repeatedly in on-air commentary across various TV networks, is not going to subordinate its national security interests to Vance.

In that regard, Vance’s attacks on the Israeli cabinet members proved self-defeating. Iran, seizing the moment to foment division between Washington and Jerusalem, abruptly canceled talks with the U.S. in Geneva.

Those talks are now back on, but Vance was left cooling his heels and was forced to cancel his own departure to Switzerland.

***

VANCE GOES ON THE ATTACK

Strangely, and yet consistent with its growing tendency to attack U.S. allies, the White House has started attacking pro-Trump critics of the MOU.

Earlier this evening, the White House’s Rapid Response on X attacked Marc Thiessen over an op ed he wrote in the Washington Post noting that Trump said he was willing to militarily attack Iran if it does not live up to its obligations under the terms of the MOU.

Thiessen had shared the op ed on X noting that Vance said, “If they don’t comply with the deal, the straits are still opening, and we can get on with our lives as a country.” Vance was clearly implying that U.S. military action against Iran was off the table one way or the other, which contradicts what Trump is saying.

Yet, Rapid Response lectured Marc Thiessen – a longtime Trump ally at that – saying, “everything the Vice President has said is what the President has said and believes. If you disagree with the Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Armed Forces, that’s on you.”

What was even more notable is that JD Vance’s personal X account reposted the Rapid Response post right after it went live.

Again, domestic political experts can sort out Vance’s attacks against a Trump supporter. Our only purpose here is to point out the confusion Vance’s messaging is creating on the global stage, especially since the 60-day negotiations with Iran are only just getting started.

Strategic ambiguity is one thing. However, Vance is likely convincing the Iranians that the U.S. has indeed capitulated to Iran.

***

ICYMI #1

Early today, in our regular weekday foreign affairs column at The Washington Star, we examined how the MOU between the U.S. and Iran began to unravel less than 24 hours after Trump signed it in Versailles, France.

Tensions flared between Israel and Hezbollah, and the Islamic Republic of Iran tried to pretend it was not behind any of it.

Photo credit: Israel Defense Forces. Lt. Col. Dor Gedalia Ben Simhon is one of four Israeli soldiers Hezbollah killed on June 19^th, 2026.

You can read it here. It is not paywalled at our request.

***

ICYMI #2

Mark was on Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt earlier today. He discussed the latest developments in Lebanon and their impact of the implementation of the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran.

You can watch it here. The segment is in Arabic.

***

Subscribe now

Thank you for reading. Please enjoy Father’s Day. We will see you Monday. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

Greetings and Happy Thursday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s current predicament is beginning to resemble the scene in the Wizard of Oz where Dorothy throws a bucket of water on the Wicked Witch of the West who cries out, “You cursed brat! Look what you’ve done! I’m melting! melting! Oh, what a world! What a world! Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness?”

Just replace ‘good little girl’ with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and ‘my beautiful wickedness’ with Putin - and you have it.

Photo Credit: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ukraine Hits Crimean Railway Bridge, Fuel Depots in Major Strike on Russian Logistics

Zelensky is making what was once considered safe zones for Russia’s elite – his hometown of St. Petersburg and the capital city of Moscow – untenable, and reiterated that “Our long-range sanctions once again reached the Moscow region.”the

Zelensky has chosen to fight fire with fire, telling Putin:

“If Ukraine is burning, your Moscow will burn too. We do NOT want this war and NEVER wanted it, and everyone knows that. We certainly do NOT want Ukraine to burn because of the enemy. But if Ukraine is burning, your Moscow will burn as well. So let me stress once again: the time has come to end this aggression, the time has come to end this war.”

***

SAINT PETERSBURG INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC FORUM OF 2026 (SPIEF 2026)

After Zelensky’s initial strike on the St. Petersburg oil terminal and the Kronstadt naval base at the onset of the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum of 2026 (SPIEF 2026), he sent an open letter to Putin proposing an immediate ceasefire along the current frontline and a face-to-face bilateral meeting in a third country to end the war.

Photo Credit: Ukraine Ministry of Defense. Kyiv put on its own big show in St. Petersburg, hitting its oil terminal Wednesday.

Putin rejected the offer, saying “I see no point in meeting. It only makes sense for the Ukrainian side to stop the advance of our armed forces. Let the experts work, develop some solutions, and then we can meet.”

Zelensky didn’t wait. His ‘experts’ went back to work and ‘developed some solutions’ by promptly striking the same set of targets again – despite Putin’s assurances that he would strengthen Russia’s air defense system.

***

THE PECHERSK LAVRA MONASTERY

As we stated in The Hill this morning, “Putin’s only recourse to battlefield failures and his intelligence services’ unsuccessful attempts to interfere in elections, is nuclear saber-rattling and the launch of ballistic missiles, glide bombs, and drones against civilian targets, which include residential neighborhoods, hospitals, schools, markets, bomb shelters, churches and cultural centers — all war crimes or even forms of genocide.

He takes the fight to defenseless civilians.

Photo Credit: Ukrainian Culture Ministry. The Kyiv Pechersk Lavra monastery was founded in 1051 and is a prominent symbol of Ukrainian spiritual and cultural history.

On Monday, Kremlin missile and drone attacks on Kyiv hit multiple cultural sites, including the Pechersk Lavra monastery, a nearly 1,000-year-old UNESCO World Heritage site.

***

THE RESPONSE

Kyiv’s response came on Tuesday as world leaders gathered in Geneva, Switzerland for the 2026 Group of Seven (G7) summit. Zelensky took the fight directly to Moscow – against Russia’s principal revenue source that finances their war against Ukraine: oil.

Photo Credit: Moskva News Agency. A fire burning at a Gazprom Neft-operated oil refinery in Moscow.

Ukrainian drones once again successfully penetrated Russian airspace to find their targets in Moscow — the Gazprom Neft-operated oil refinery. Zelensky called the attack a “just response to Russian strikes and prolonging the war by the Kremlin.”

Then again today – in spectacular fashion, blowing the lid off an oil tank at the Moscow Oil Refinery.

Watch the video here:

/video/1

As Roman Sheremeta explained in his LinkedIn post today:

The Moscow Oil Refinery is a key facility in Russia’s oil refining industry, with a processing capacity of up to 11 million tons of oil per year. The plant supplies up to 40% of Moscow’s gasoline needs and about 50% of its diesel fuel.

As a result of systematic Ukrainian strikes, Russia’s oil production has fallen to a yearly low, while gasoline output has dropped to its lowest level in 16 years.

Also, for the first time in history, Russia has been forced to import fuel from abroad. Read that twice. Russia – the world’s second-largest oil exporter – is now buying refined gasoline from Asia because it can no longer reliably produce enough of its own.

***

THE EFFECT IN RUSSIA

There are plumes of black smoke towering over the Moscow skyline, power outages, internet and cell phone disruptions, fuel shortages, flight delays and more.

This video captures most of it:

In terms of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs – safety and security have been lost. So too has the Russian people’s trust - and confidence in the government’s ability to defend them.

Photo Credit: Kathy Brodie. Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

The war in Ukraine has arrived on their front doorsteps. This is not exactly the winning Putin has sold Russians for the past four years.

Zelensky has ‘leveled the bubble’ and the Kremlin does not have an answer. Life in St. Petersburg and Moscow is about to become ‘untenable.’

***

THE EFFECT IN BELARUS

From his perch in Minsk, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has seen Zelensky’s open letter and witnessed the multiple drone strikes on St. Petersburg and Moscow.

According to Lukashenko, “So they’re [Ukraine] striking targets. They’re not hitting the front. The Ukrainians are striking civilians, historical and cultural monuments, oil refineries, and factories. They’re striking all over Russia, all the way to the Urals, with drones. That’s the kind of war we have now.”

As we stated in The Washington Star, Lukashenko owes his political existence to Putin, has stated his country’s military and defense cooperation with Russia remains intact, and that Minsk is prepared to “defend Moscow, if necessary” – just not in Ukraine or against NATO.

Nonetheless, he is likely wondering: if Putin cannot defend St. Petersburg or Moscow, how is he going to defend Minsk? The short answer - he is not.

Not to mention his track record of coming to the assistance of his allies – Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran.

In the Russian model, loyalty travels one way – and that’s up. When you exceed your usefulness to the State or become a burden – you are simply discarded.

And that likely explains comments recently made by Lukashenko as he tries to put some distance between himself and Putin.

Two weeks ago he ruled out sending troops to fight in Ukraine, saying his soldiers would not become “cannon fodder for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war” and that he “did not want to” fight Poland, Lithuania, or Ukraine.

On Tuesday he acknowledged that “Belarus is very vulnerable militarily, because Belarus is exposed to the Ukrainian military like we are in the open palm of their hand. We fully understand that our key life-support facilities – industrial and logistical –would come under attack.”

And he doesn’t want any of that – specifically, being on the receiving end of the “500 potential targets in Belarus” identified by Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Commander Robert Brovdi, who warned Lukashenko that he would strike should Belarus take “actions that could further draw Minsk into the war.”

Lukashenko would later apologize for any remarks he made about Zelensky in the past that may have been offensive, saying “Perhaps I overdid it here and there.”

The Belarusian dictator senses ‘change in air’ and is likely hedging his bets – his keeper is in trouble.

***

MAKING MOSCOW UNTENABLE

Zelensky is exposing the Kremlin’s vulnerabilities to the Russian people - and to a global audience as well.

Striking Moscow is the next step.

Making both St. Petersburg and Moscow untenable puts additional pressure on Putin and the Kremlin to come to the negotiation table on terms favorable to Kyiv. Zelensky’s end state remains the same - the complete withdrawal of Russian ground forces from Ukraine and the restoration of all sovereign Ukrainian territory, to include Crimea.

Putin can no longer defend his own skies, and will not come to the defense of his allies. From projecting strength and power – to becoming ‘grandpa in his bunker.’ He has become by all accounts, “dead man walking.”

***

ICYMI #1

In our weekly Thursday national security column at The Hill in Washington, D.C., we examined how Putin’s reign in Russia is beginning to crumble.

You can read it here.

***

ICYMI #2

In our daily weekday foreign affairs column at The Washington Star in Washington, D.C., we penned a story around the already iconic photo below. Moscow, literally and figuratively speaking is losing its top at the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Photo credit: Ukraine Defense Ministry. A meme was born when Ukraine knocked the lid off the major Moscow oil refinery on June 18^th, 2926.

You can read it here.

***

ICYMI #3

Mark was on Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt today. He discussed the mounting fallout between the U.S. and Israel over the Memorandum of Understanding signed by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezkeshian.

You can watch it here.

***

Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

Greetings!

Forgive the gallows humor, however, we cannot help but observe the French do like their surrenders. Bear in mind, this was Mark’s characterization and he makes it as the grandson of a man born in France in 1895.

President Donald Trump, while dining with French President Emmanuel Macron earlier this evening at the Palace of Versailles outside of Paris, signed the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Iran.

Photo credit: Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian holds up the signature page of the MOU entered into between the U.S. and Iran on June 17^th, 2026. It bears President Donald J. Trump’s signature and his.

Shortly afterwards, in Tehran, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, acting on behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, signed the MOU as well.

It was not immediately clear what was different from what Vice President JD Vance claimed that he and Trump signed on Sunday.

Yet here we are. It is signed now.

While Trump did not surrender in a military sense to Tehran, he certainly, in our view after reading the MOU, surrendered the negotiating initiative to Iran. Especially as the two sides now enter into a 60-day window — a window that can be mutually extended — to finalize a permanent peace deal between the U.S. and Iran.

Let’s get started understanding how. To be honest, we are still not sure ‘why’ save Qatar’s $1 trillion investment pledge in the U.S.

***

THE MOU IS FRONT-LOADED IN FAVOR OF IRAN

As we warned earlier today in The Washington Star, Trump’s deal — or is it really Vance, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s deal? — is front-loaded in favor of Iran. Tehran’s obligations under the agreement are largely oblique, while it is very specific about what Washington is obligating itself to.

Candidly, that is just — well, you know the expression — half-ass backwards. Tehran was losing the war and yet negotiated an MOU that appears as if the U.S. was losing to Iran and that Trump and company had approached the Iranian regime desperately carrying a large white flag of surrender.

WHAT DOES IRAN GET UPFRONT?

First and foremost, Iran immediately begins to receive critically needed revenue. While it will take time for it to return to prewar levels, Tehran eventually will be receiving $500 million a day in oil and gas revenue as a result of Trump’s immediate lifting the military blockade of Iran’s western and southwestern seaports.

To put that in perspective, that is $30 billion, if maxed out, over the 60-day negotiating table. Compare that to former President Barack Obama indirectly releasing $1.7 billion in Iranian frozen funds as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The math is not even close. And that’s before you consider that the MOU provides for a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran.

Trump took great pains today, during his closing press conference at the G7 Summit in Geneva, Switzerland, to argue that Tehran’s access to the fund is performance-based and that it is its own money.

One, the agreement only implies it is performance-based. There is no specific mechanism that triggers it or stops it. Two, Trump’s argument is very similar — as many critics of the deal pointed out on X — to the Obama Administration’s justification of the $1.7 billion asset transfer.

Plus, if you add the two together — oil and gas revenue and reconstruction (which in our view feels more like reparations) — it equals $330 billion or over 194 times larger than what Obama authorized to Iran.

Granted, Iran was generating oil revenue, however, it is the rapid flood of cash and size of it that we are concerned about. It is a near certainty that Brig. Gen. Ahamd Vahidi and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will siphon of most of those funds to sustain itself as well as its Axis of Resistance proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.

As we emphasized in our piece at The Washington Star, it is highly likely the IRGC will use those revenue streams to plan and execute new attacks against U.S. and Israeli interests as they did during the October 7^th massacre.

For now, Iran’s nuclear program under the MOU remains frozen as it is. Tehran is under no obligation during the 60 days to begin dismantling it or to provide access to its nuclear sites to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

That is madness. Essentially, the U.S. will be negotiating in the blind to make sure Iran never has a nuclear weapon, or as Trump emphasized today in Geneva, that Tehran will never be allowed to buy one.

Yet, equally notably, the MOU does not cover how and to what extent Iran must dismantle its nuclear weapons program. The only provision is that Iran, at a minimum, must down-blend its 19,000 pounds or so of low- and highly-enriched uranium.

Bear in mind that even if Iran down-blends its uranium stockpiles to 3.67%, the amount needed for a nuclear fuel rod to power atomic energy, the MOU does not stipulate that the down-blended uranium be shipped out of the country. That’s a glaring and dangerous omission. 3.67% enriched uranium is 70% there in terms of achieving weapons-grade.

That is significant when you consider the MOU makes no mention of Iran’s centrifuges or future right to build new ones. They already possess the capability. As it is, up until now, Iran’s modus operandi has been to build all the parts needed for a bomb.

What is to stop them from doing that again?

Iran also retains control of the Strait of Hormuz during the 60-day negotiating period. Plus, based on public statements, Tehran is already working with Oman to maintain control of the international waterway by charging ‘administrative fees’ versus ‘tolls.’ Either way, both are violations of international law.

***

WHAT’S MISSING?

The MOU makes no mention of Iran’s ballistic missile and drone programs. That is significant since the Trump Administration argued its existence, especially Tehran’s focus on building intercontinental ballistic missiles that could reach the U.S., were part of it’s the White House’s justification for immediately waging war on Iran.

Remember, Secretary Marco Rubio himself said that Iran’s ballistic missiles and drones were becoming such a serious threat that if the U.S. waited, it would be difficult, if not impossible, to attack Tehran.

Yet now, any mention of them is missing in action in the MOU. Israel is not going to find that acceptable. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees Iran’s ballistic missile program as an existential threat to Israel.

Of equal concern, Hezbollah — and by extension the IRGC — essentially gets a pass in the MOU. Israel is expected to go easy on the IRGC-backed proxy, but the MOU stipulates no penalties if Tehran cannot control or on a ‘wink, wink’ basis stop Hezbollah from launching rocket attacks on northern and central Israel.

Perhaps most tragically, from the standpoint of the Iranians, is the lack of any hope for the protesters who started rising up last December. Their dream of toppling a brutal and bloody regime that has massacred tens of thousands of civilians since 1979 is, at least for the foreseeable future, effectively over.

Not only were the Iranian protesters left out of the deal. The U.S. agreed to not interfere with Iran’s internal affairs. So much for Trump’s pledge that help was on its way.

***

WHAT DOES THE U.S. GET?

Frankly, the U.S. does not get much out of this deal except economic relief as a result of oil prices that immediately began dropping once the deal was announced. That is no small change, but the U.S. did not go to war to create economic gains for itself.

Those were already in the books.

It went to war to put an end to the regime and to permanently put an end to Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Thus far, the U.S. has not achieved either.

***

CAN IT GET BETTER?

We have our doubts this will get ay better. If it does not, it will be the worst U.S. strategic defeat in the history of our country.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Secretary of the Iranian Parliament, was already bragging on Wednesday that Iran was going to become part of a new world order with China. Trump may want to close the door on Iran, but he is foolishly, in our view, opening the door wide open for Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Plus, the damage to the U.S.-Israel relationship is very real. Trump kept publicly humiliating his war ally while inexplicably praising Hezbollah and Hamas during his press conference (yes, you read that right).

It can only get better if Trump stops negotiating against himself. However, after today’s presser in Geneva and Vance’s strained defenses of the MOU he allegedly principally authored, we fear Trump wants to get away from Iran as fast as he can.

If so, we never thought — at least symbolically speaking — that the U.S. would be raising a white flag of surrender on July 4^th, 2026, its 250^th birthday. However, here we are and we as a nation are headed in that direction.

Yankee Doodle Dandy that.

***

PROGRAMMING NOTE

Tomorrow, in our weekly Thursday 7 AM ET national security column at The Hill in Washington, D.C., we outline how Russian President Vladimir Putin is like the Titanic. He has hit an iceberg in Ukraine and Russia is sinking fast.

You can read it here when it goes live.

***

ICYMI #1

Earlier today, in our regular weekday foreign affairs column for The Washington Star, we urgently warn the president and his national security team that they are negotiating against themselves in Iran.

Screenshot credit: The White House. Howard Lutnick and Marco Rubio have different reactions to President Trump’s press conference on Wednesday in Geneva, Switzerland.

You can read it here. It is not paywalled at our request.

***

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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

Greetings!

As we wrote in The Washington Star on Monday – Tehran and Washington have an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) problem.

Photo Credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS). Members of special IRGC forces attend a rally marking the annual Quds Day, or Jerusalem Day, on the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan in Tehran, Iran, April 29, 2022.

The IRGC will do whatever it takes to undermine peace talks between the two countries. We saw that firsthand on Sunday.

President Donald Trump had announced on Truth Social that “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete.” His next text added that “This Great Deal will bring Peace and Security to the whole Region.”

But Hezbollah got a different message from their handlers in Tehran – disrupt negotiations. Stir the pot. Create division between the two countries that allied with one another to attack their country on February 28th.

They did just that.

Less than 24 hours prior to the announcement, Hezbollah launched “three projectiles towards communities in northern Israel.” Israel - as anticipated - responded by attacking Hezbollah targets in Southern Lebanon.

In a joint statement released by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz, they stated that “The IDF has now attacked terrorist targets of the Hezbollah terrorist organization in the Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut, in response to Hezbollah’s firing into Israeli territory.”

As the saying goes, “Surprises are for birthdays.” Interestingly enough, Sunday was the President’s 80th birthday. An Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) event – UFC Freedom 250 – was scheduled to take place on the South Lawn of the White House. This was not on the schedule.

The exchange put Trump’s Deal at risk – and he was not happy, lashing out at Netanyahu, “I couldn’t believe it. An hour before we are supposed to sign the deal. Why did Bibi have to do a f***ing attack? I was so pissed off. I let him know. He has no f***ing judgement.”

The President gave Iran’s hardliners exactly what they wanted – division between the U.S. and Israel using Lebanon and their Hezbollah proxy as their tools. It’s not just Russian President Vladimir Putin who subscribes to Sun Tzu’s writings found in The Art of War: “Know the enemy and know yourself; in a hundred battles, you will never be defeated.”

The IRGC served as Tehran’s intermediary, just as they had done on October 7th when they orchestrated the attack on Israel utilizing their ‘other’ proxy in the region – Hamas.

Iran exports terrorism through their proxies via the IRGC. Iran’s hardliners are not going to relinquish that capability. As we have stated many times before - Iran’s center of gravity is the IRGC.

***

THE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING

As the President pressed forward with his ‘Deal’ to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ensure that Tehran does not secure or develop a nuclear weapon, he forwent Israeli national security interests.

While Israel shares the nuclear capable Iran red-line, the wolf closest to their sled is Hezbollah – who sits atop their list, alongside Hamas, Houthi rebels, and Iran’s ballistic missile and drone programs. The asymmetric threat.

Jointly the allies entered into the war with Iran with a singular goal: regime change. The two leaders acknowledged as much in their statements:

On the evening of the strike on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound in Tehran, Trump encouraged the Iranian people, telling them that “the hour of your freedom is at hand … take over your government.”

Two weeks later, Netanyahu told Israeli citizens that his goal was “to create the conditions for the Iranian people to overthrow this terrible tyrannical regime,” telling Iranians “Its up to you.”

When that did not materialize – the President sought an alternative path for peace. At D+38, he stopped the bombing and chose to enter into negotiations with Iran for a cease fire. Iran played the only card they had left – they shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

Photo Credit: Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters. President Donald Trump speaks as he attends a bilateral meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron during the G7 Summit in Evian-les-Bains, France, June 15, 2026.

While the actual terms of ‘The Deal’ the President signed on Monday remain undisclosed, Iran published their version of the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) online. The first demand listed calls for the “immediate and permanent cessation of this war on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”

That is not going to happen. Not as long as Hezbollah and their IRGC ‘advisors’ remain in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.

A spokesman from Netanyahu’s office said Israel will continue to defend itself against any threat to its security. Katz added on Monday that Israel would not withdraw from the land it seized in Lebanon, making it clear that Israel joined the U.S. in the war with Iran, but was not party to Trump’s ‘Deal.’

Two other points in the MoU stood out as well:

7. Reconstruction plans to be presented by the US and its allies, totaling at least $300 billion.

11. Release of $24 billion in Iran’s blocked funds during the 60-day final negotiation period, with half of that amount to be made available to Iran before negotiations begin.

The MoU contains no mention of support to Iran’s proxies or their ballistic missile and drone programs. Israel knows a sizable portion of that $324 billion – whether the U.S. contributes or not – in reparations and frozen funds will be allocated back to the IRGC to rebuild their proxy network and their ballistic missile and drone inventories. And that does not even take into consideration the funds they will generate from their own oil sales over the 60-day ceasefire timeline.

On Sunday, Vice President J.D. Vance told Fox News that “If the Iranians comply with this deal [MoU], it is going to fundamentally transform the Middle East for the next 50 years … it is going to end the war.”

That’s a pretty big IF – considering what was conveniently left out of the MoU. But it did not go unnoticed by Israel.

Iran will comply with the deal – more appropriately, take advantage of it – as long as it serves its needs. For now, that need is cash – and Trump’s deal provides that in bulk.

***

VAHIDI’S PLAN

In 1976 The Steve Miller Band released their hit song “Take the money and run.” And that’s the most likely course of action for Iran at the moment.

At least according to one source close to the IRGC, who told Israel’s Channel 14 Senior Iran Analyst Dror Balazada that the IRGC has no intention of honoring the deal. Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi allegedly stated, “We’re not really trying to uphold it [the deal]; we just want the money we’ll get from it … Let’s take all the money right now, and then we’ll do whatever we want.”

***

THE WAY AHEAD

The President made a number of disingenuous comments about Israel today in Geneva at the G7 Summit. Israel is not an adversary; rather, they are an ally. Lebanon is not a threat either – Hezbollah’s occupation and its subsequent militarization of Lebanon is. Lebanon became a training ground for IRGC forces – and their sanctuary.

United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 was supposed to provide a solution in 2006. But like many U.N. Resolutions, it was not enforced. It briefed well, but no one – neither the Lebanese Army nor U.N. Forces – wanted to stand up to Hezbollah.

Israel will become an obstacle to Trump’s ‘Deal’ if he permits Iran – through the IRGC and its proxies – to continue to threaten Israel’s national security.

On Monday Netanyahu said the agreement between the U.S. and Iran was Trump’s decision, Israel has its own interests, “I tell you, citizens of Israel, the struggle is not over. We will need to continue to be vigilant, to remain strong and determined, to defend ourselves as necessary.”

According to the Fars News Agency – the U.S. promised Iran that Israel will withdraw from Lebanon. Trump made a similar promise to Putin in Alaska – Zelensky will withdraw from the Donbas. How did that work out?

The IRGC is the problem – the head of the Hydra. And its leader – Vahidi – now runs the country as well. His track record is evidence enough.

To achieve peace in the Middle East, the President must address Israel’s national security concerns. If not, Iranian hardliners will continue to leverage IRGC capabilities to achieve their ends. Allowing the IRGC to remain in power will not bring peace to the Middle East; rather, it will destabilize the region for the foreseeable future.

***

ICYMI. In our national security column in The Washington Star today we compare the Witkoff & Kushner approach to negotiations between Russia and Iran. The ‘deals’ the pair negotiate tend to revolve around money – while leaving allies to fend for themselves.

***

Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

Greetings!

There is an early 20^th century line — cliché, really at this point — that you cannot put lipstick on a pig and expect it to look any better. Retired Gen. Jack Keane said it best today to Sean Hannity on Fox News: “You know that, Sean! You know you can’t trust these people!” These people being the Iranians.

Yet that was what Vice President JD Vance was doing today in multiple media appearances as he tried to sell President Donald Trump’s decision to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Releasing the MOU might have helped. However, the White House thus far has kept it sealed and instead is relying on Vance, background briefings to reporters, and comments Trump has made throughout the day.

By the time you wake up Tuesday, we should have the released version. Brace yourself because the fact that we do not have it tonight is a strong indicate that it is a really, really bad deal for the U.S. that simply allows Iran to extend the clock and get access to oil revenues due to the ending of the U.S. blockade of Iranian seaports.

We will have a lot more to say about the MOU in tomorrow’s INTREP360 Intelligence Report. However, for today’s edition, we feel compelled to focus on Ukraine given Russian President Vladimir Putin’s heinous decision to launch a series of ballistic missile and drone strikes against cultural sites across Kyiv.

Photo credit: Unknown. A fire blazes on the roof of the Dormition Cathedral at Kyiv Pechersk Lavra after a Russian ballistic missile and drone attack on Kyiv on June 15^th, 2026.

Putin may have scored a hit on the UNESCO World Heritage site, however, in doing so he told the world that Russia is losing in Ukraine. It really is, at the risk of sounding cliché, a case of the good, the bad, and the ugly.

Let’s get started!

***

THE GOOD

To fully understand why the Kremlin targeted the 11^th century Kyiv Pechersk Lavra monastery in Kyiv, we need to understand just how badly Putin’s so-called ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine is going.

As both of us detailed in a 20-minute news magazine segment hosted by our good friend Daniel Tkiie on First Western TV in Lviv, Ukraine, Moscow is facing military setbacks in every theater and operations area of the war.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) continue to pummel Russia’s vital oil and energy sectors by launching deep-precision strikes on its refining and export logistics as far away as St. Petersburg –– Putin’s hometown and political power base.

Conservatively speaking, Russia has been forced to scale back or halt 25% of its overall refining capacity. Consequently, it is estimated that Putin’s economy is losing $50 to $60 million a day in lost energy revenues. That is a significant increase compared to 2025 when Moscow was losing $35 million a day.

Thus far, since the start of the war on February 24^th, 2022, Ukraine has hit at least 24 out of 33 major Russian refineries. In 2026 alone, Ukraine through May conducted 32 strikes matching its 2024 total in only five months.

Economically speaking, Ukraine is bleeding Putin’s Russia to death. Plus, there are no signs Ukraine is going to let up. Especially since, thus far, the Kremlin has not been able to create an effective air defense against the AFU’s deep strikes using Ukrainian-made FP-5 Flamingo, FP-7 Pelican, and Palianytsia missiles as well as drones.

Ukrainian growing drone arsenal includes An-196 Liutyis, UJ-26 Beavers, UJ-22 Airbornes, AQ-400 Scythes, FP-1s, FP-2s, Zozulias, Hornets and a dozen others. The point being here is that Ukraine’s deep-strike capacity continues to dynamically expand while the Kremlin struggles to find answers.

So too does the hit to Russia’s GDP. Recent forecasts indicate that Moscow’s projected 2026 GDP has been halved to a dismal 0.5% growth rate.

The AFU also continues to bleed Russia on the frontlines. As of today, according to the Defense of Ukraine on X, 1,384,190 Russian and allied soldiers have been killed or wounded as a part of Putin’s bloody war. That is nearly 20,000 new Russian casualties inflicted by the AFU in the month of June alone.

As it is, Russia during 2026 has not been able to replace the number of soldiers lost on the frontlines in Ukraine with new Russian recruits.

As the oft-repeated saying goes, the ‘math isn’t mathing’ for Putin.

***

THE BAD

The bad is obviously the human cost to Ukraine. Its soldiers and civilians continue to be murdered by Putin’s military.

Plus, as we documented very early on in the war for National Security News in London, Russia has continuously targeted key Ukrainian cultural sites. The only difference overnight is that Putin started going after globally known historic landmarks in Kyiv, including the nearly 1000-year-old Kyiv Pechersk Lavra monastery.

In doing so, Putin has exposed himself.

***

THE UGLY

The ugly continues to be the U.S. and European response. The Russian assaults on Ukrainian civilians and cultural sites could be ended – or largely mitigated against – if Europe would finally follow through on a no-fly zone in western Ukraine.

Alas, Europe talks but never walks the walk where it could make a decisive difference in the AFU’s ability to defend its citizens and free resources to eventually launch a ground offensive to retake the Crimean Peninsula.

Dithering never won a war. Nor can scheduling one meeting after the next to discuss what might eventually be done to win this war either.

This week’s G7 is yet another classic example. French President Emmanuel Macron, its host, was hoping to reset Europe and Washington’s focus on solving the war in Ukraine. However, Trump’s MOU with Iran upstaged that (as well as Macron).

Regardless, why does Europe need any more meetings or summits? The United Kingdom, France and Germany — its titular leaders —have had four plus years now to figure out a winning plan. And yet still, while Ukraine fights, they remain collectively clueless how to confront Russia and Putin, despite both being weaker than ever.

It’s madness. And it’s unbelievable. Yet here we are. Enough meetings. More, as wartime British Prime Minister Winston Churchill urgently often put it, ‘Action This Day!’

***

PUTIN’S CRUMBLING WAR NARRATIVE

Putin’s war narratives have since the start of the war changed and evolved as setbacks on the frontlines have piled up. However, until now, one key Russian narrative — and it is a religious one — has thus far survived.

And it is?

That Putin’s war is a Holy War to reunite Russia with its mythical Kievan Rus’ past and the origins of Orthodox Christianity in Eastern Europe.

In one of our earliest articles writing together as colleagues, we detailed in July 2022, the various narratives Putin has employed to justify his war.

First, it was Kievan Rus’ and then it was to de-Nazify Ukraine. Then, when those failed, it was to help create a multi-polar world with China and Russia as its new combined center of economic and military gravity thereby displacing the U.S. and the West.

Yet it was Kievan Rus’ mythology that Putin had invested in most. For most of the war, as evidenced by his interview with Tucker Carlson, he has still clung to it.

Two bronze statues in Kyiv and Moscow tell the story. One is of Volodymyr the Great in Kyiv. The other is of Vladimir the Great in Moscow. They are statues of the same man, who was the founder of the proto-state of Kievan Rus’.

However, there is one key difference. St. Volodymyr in Kyiv is real Ukrainian history. Putin’s statue of St. Vladimir?

It is coopted history. The real St. Volodymyr never made it anywhere near to Moscow, or for that matter, near St. Petersburg either.

Putin is the one who built the St. Vladimir statue in Moscow in 2016. It faces Kyiv 470 miles to the southwest. The statue was part of Putin’s efforts to create a historical mythology inside modern-day Russia to justify conquering Ukraine.

Yesterday, however, in his dastardly attack on the Pechersk Lavra monastery in Kyiv, Putin proved he doesn’t give a damn about history. He only cares about waging a genocidal war against the people of Ukraine.

***

ICYMI #1

Last week, we appeared on First Western TV in Ukraine. The newsmagazine show was hosted by our good friend Daniel Tkiie.

We outline the various ways Ukraine is seizing the initiative against Russia both in terms of deep, intermediate, and frontline strikes in 10-kilometer-wide kill zones.

It is initially broadcast over-the-air and then uploaded in English and Ukrainian on YouTube. You can watch it here.

***

ICYMI #2

Earlier today, in our regular weekday foreign affairs column for The Washington Star, we warned the White House that President Trump has an IRGC problem in Iran. No amount of Iranian pinky promises is going to make that go away.

Photo credit: Israel Defense Forces. Hezbollah’s projectiles fell near Shomera and Shlomi in northern Israel.

You can read it here. It is not paywalled at our request.

***

ICYMI #3

Mark was on Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt earlier today. He discussed the latest developments in Iran.

He also reiterated that Hezbollah is acting at the behest of the IRGC and that Lebanon likely will be where the MOU founders.

You can watch the full segment here. The segment is in Arabic.

***

ICYMI #4

Mark was also on Q News in Cairo, Egypt. Q News is the English-speaking news service of Al Qahera News.

Ostensibly, the segment was to focus on the opening of the G7 Summit. However, it took a turn and Ukraine was raised. Mark’s fellow guest panelist quickly began arguing that the Donbas and Ukraine by extension were unimportant to Western Europe’s security.

By the time the discussion returned to Mark, he had had enough. When asked his opinion of the other guest’s views, Mark dispensed with his normal decorum and characterized the Frenchman’s assessment of Ukraine as “Nonsense!”

You can watch it here. The segment is in English.

***

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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

June 12th, 2026

Greetings and Happy Friday.

As Mark said last night, I have the con while he tends to his gravely ill Aunt.

Negotiations with Islamic Republic of Iran are kind of like the weather in Puerto Rico – or most anyplace lately – just wait 15 minutes and it will change. And they did repeatedly today.

Photo Credit: WANA News. Which Countries Have Been Briefed on the Iran–US Negotiations?

As we stated in The Washington Star yesterday, “In today’s world of strategic ambiguity, deception, cryptic messaging, disinformation, and taunting, nothing is certain until it happens.”

And now you can add ‘getting in the last word’ to the mix.

***

IRAN’S 14-POINT PROPOSAL

Yesterday the President told us the U.S. was nearing a deal on peace talks with Iran, then pulled back from threats he made earlier to launch more military strikes and seize Iran’s oil infrastructure – Kharg Island.

See the President’s Truth Social message here:

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116732652997120164

Had two days of bombings, a third looming, and the threat to ‘take Kharg Island’ get Iran to capitulate? U.S. Central Command has the military forces necessary to conduct the mission in place.

Sounded like it. According Fox News Chief Foreign Correspondent Trey Yingst, Trump took a call from top Iranian officials during his interview with the President who “begged him to stop bombing.”

Photo Credit: Iran International. State media releases reported details of Iran-US draft deal

But then this morning, just as the President had announced a deal was within reach – for the 39th time if you’re counting, CNN did – the Mehr News Agency published what they described as a “14-point draft understanding between Iran and the U.S.,” which presented a much different deal than the one the President had proclaimed.

1. A permanent and immediate halt to fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon.

2. A US commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

3. The full lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days.

4. A US commitment to withdraw its forces from areas surrounding Iran.

5. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under arrangements set by Iran.

6. The suspension of sanctions on Iran’s oil sales, petrochemical products and derivatives, along with full Iranian access to the resulting financial resources.

7. A requirement for the United States and its allies to present plans for Iran’s reconstruction worth at least $300 billion.

8. A 60-day negotiating period aimed at reaching a final agreement covering nuclear issues and the complete removal of US primary and secondary sanctions, as well as United Nations Security Council and International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors resolutions.

9. A reiteration of Iran’s commitment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty not to produce nuclear weapons.

10. During the negotiation period, the United States would not deploy additional forces to the region or impose new sanctions.

11. The release of $24 billion in blocked Iranian funds during the 60-day negotiation period, with half of that amount to be made available to Iran before negotiations begin.

12. The establishment of a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement.

13. Approval of the final agreement through a United Nations Security Council resolution.

14. Final negotiations would not begin before the release of half of Iran’s blocked funds, the suspension of Iran’s oil sanctions and the lifting of the naval blockade. The final agreement would focus exclusively on the fate of enriched material and enrichment activities, sanctions relief and plans to rebuild Iran’s economy. Discussions regarding Iran’s missile program and support for resistance groups would be definitively excluded from the agenda.

Surely these were not the negotiation points that Witkoff & Kushner agreed to.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains in power? The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under arrangements set by Iran? Suspension of sanctions? The U.S. will pay $300 billion in reparations? 60 days to negotiate Iran’s nuclear ambitions? Release $24 billion in frozen assets? Involvement of the United Nations?

Please.

No mention of Iran’s unaccounted for 440.9kg of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, along with 184.1kg enriched up to 20 percent, or the enriched program in general. No mention of their ballistic missile and drone programs, or IRGC support to their proxies - other than an immediate halt to the fighting in Lebanon to save Hezbollah.

President Trump was quick to respond, posting on Truth Social that, “The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing. What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth. Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith. AMAZING! Also, their totally rebuffed Drone attack last night against Indian Ships leaving the Hormuz Strait is TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE. They better get their act together, and FAST!”

Vice President J.D. Vance would weigh in on X as well.

Axios political reporter and Middle East expert Barak Ravid reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said an agreement with the U.S. to extend the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear program “has never been closer.”

Until it wasn’t

***

THE DEAL BREAKER - OR AT LEAST IT SHOULD BE

That changed in late afternoon when Consulate General of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Mumbai (@IRANinMumbai) and the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (@iribnews_irib) began posting comments by Araghchi on their X pages. Here are just a few:

We are dealing with people in the U.S. who do not honor their commitments; we must ensure that they have no opportunity to renege on their obligations.

If the provisions set out in the memorandum of understanding (MoU) are not implemented, negotiations for a final agreement will not take place.

We are the victor of this battlefield.

After signing the initial agreement, we give the US 60 days to fulfill its duties.

The first issue explicitly addressed & emphasized in this MoU is the U.S. naval blockade, which must be lifted.

The nuclear issue was not discussed in the first stage and we transferred it to the second stage.

At this stage, we did not discuss nuclear issues. However, in any case, our position regarding enriched materials is that if dilution is to take place, it will happen inside Iran, NOT in another country.

We will never leave Hezbollah in Lebanon alone, and the end of the war in Lebanon will include all fronts.

The Strait of Hormuz falls under the sovereignty of Iran and Oman. Its future management will not return to the pre-wa status quo. Tehran and Muscat have reached positive understandings and may soon unveil a joint plan for the Strait.

Under the memorandum of understanding, if signed, Iran’s frozen assets will be released.

None of our assets can remain blocked again.

A reconstruction plan has also been envisaged to compensate for the damages suffered by Iran.

These are pretty bold statements from a Senior Iranian Leader. Less than 48 hours ago Iranian senior leaders were on the phone “begging” the President to stop the bombing.

These comments pretty much cross three distinctive red-lines for the U.S. and Israel. No nuclear weapons, Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran will not provide support to their proxies – namely Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi rebels in Yemen and Shi’a militia in Iraq.

***

FULL CIRCLE

The past couple days are in tune with the the first verse of the Kinks 1984 hit, “Do it Again:”

Standing in the middle of nowhere
Wondering how to begin
Lost between tomorrow and yesterday
Between now and then
And now we’re back where we started
Here we go ‘round again
Day after day, I get up and I say
I better do it again

The President is chasing a deal that doesn’t exist. Whoever Witkoff & Kushner are negotiating with are not the decision makers. Simple fact here is that the MoU did not survive contact with the IRGC – Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi - despite the President’s belief that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei Junior had approved it.

Iran dangles and the White House bites. 39 and counting.

If any of above is accurate – the 14-point proposal or Araghchi’s comments, then the two countries are still miles apart.

Iran is adding to the President’s humiliation.

It’s time for the President to stand down Witkoff & Kushner. He needs to tell Admiral Brad Cooper to “secure the strait” and green light Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to remove the IRGC. Then tell his staff, “the only phone call I will take from Iran is from Vahidi telling me that he surrenders.”

***

ICYMI #1: Early today, in our regular weekday foreign affairs column for The Washington Star, Mark and I examined the day’s back and forth between the Trump Administration and Iran – Deal or No Deal? Iran Is Playing Games With Trump To Stall the Clock.

Photo credit: Government of Pakistan Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif jumped into the fray Friday.

You can read it here. It is not paywalled at our request.

***

ICYMI #2: Jon joined TVP World host Benjamin Lee this afternoon prior to Araghchi comments to discuss negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.

***

Thank you for reading. We will see you Monday – have a great weekend.

Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

Greetings!

Jon is off today as he is playing the good uncle to his young nephew who is visiting family in Puerto Rico.

My apologies upfront. I had intended this edition of our INTREP360 Intelligence Report to be far better researched, however, as I sat down to pen it, I received word that my late mother’s youngest sister is gravely ill.

I need to hit the road soon to try and see her one last time.

However, before I head west, I wanted to at least give you an outline of our thoughts — Jon & I did get a chance to talk today — and about the developments we are tracking between President Donald Trump and Iran.

Photo credit: Eric Lee / New York Times. President Donald Trump at the Oval Office on June 11^th, 2026.

Let’s get started!

***

GETTHEREITIS

As we noted earlier today in The Washington Star, Trump has been all over the place today on Iran.

Early this morning, Trump angrily posted on Truth Social that “The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT.”

The President also threatened that, “At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela.”

Then, nearly five hours later, he posted on Truth Social saying “Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening.”

One word immediately caught our eye: “discussions.” That is not the kind of word you use if an agreement is a ‘done deal.’

To our intel eyes and ears, it felt like a message was being delivered, likely at the request of the Qataris (more on this below).

Back to Trump. He then spent a good chunk of his day taking victory laps. Early on, he told Caitlin Doornbos at the New York Post that the deal with Iran was “pretty much wrapped up.”

Pretty much?

Again, that is not how you usually characterize a ‘done deal.’

Then, during remarks made in the Oval Office, Trump told reporters that “We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran.”

That certainly sounded more definitive. However, we sensed Trump backtracking a bit when he was asked when the deal would be signed.

His answer?

“It’ll be soon. Maybe this weekend.” He also pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz “will officially open as soon as we sign, …maybe over the weekend in Europe.”

Maybe is not a decisive word either.

Then, in classic Trump fashion, over the course of three sentences, he swung back and forth between it being a done deal: “They have all approved the deal. Everybody’s approved the deal. Now we will get it finished up, and hopefully that will be done.”

Hopefully?

In fairness, Trump was likely referring to U.S. allies and not necessarily Iran itself. Still, he left it as ambiguous. Plus, given that he listed ten countries, including “Israel, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, [and] Egypt,” call me suspicious, but it would take a small miracle to get that many governments to quickly agree to anything, much less a deal to end the war.

Especially since Israel said they had received no prior heads-up from the White House. More on that curious case of war allies below.

By later this evening he was back to certainty. Speaking during a virtual rally for Burt Jones, Trump boasted that “We ended the war with Iran today.”

The only problem for Trump was that Iran responded saying, not so fast. Multiple officials and news agencies quickly claimed that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei had not yet agreed to the deal.

Trump, it seems, is suffering yet again from what my late father and late grandfather warned me about as a kid: GETTHEREITIS. Both were pilots and often told me the best way to ensure that you never arrive safely at your destination is to rush the process of checking the weather, inspecting the plane, and manually making sure the fuel tanks were full.

***

IRAN’S RESPONSE

Esmaeil Baghaei, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, declared via IRNA, the Iranian regime’s official news agency, that Tehran “has not yet made a final decision on a possible agreement with the U.S.” He then added that “reports regarding a time and place of signing the agreement remained speculative and that nothing had been finalized.”

His kicker?

Baghaei defiantly said that Iran “will not compromise on its ‘red lines’ in negotiations.” That was likely code that Tehran is unwilling to accept meaningful curbs on uranium enrichment, its ballistic missile and drone programs. It also signaled that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has no intention of ceasing its support, arming, and funding of the Axis of Resistance — including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.

Other IRGC-linked and semi-official media outlets, including the Far News Agency and Mehrs, also explicitly denied that it was a done deal. Essentially, they each characterized Trump’s claims as not reflecting reality.

ISRAEL’S RESPONSE

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, if you read between the lines, appears highly skeptical of the deal.

His office released the following statement on X:

“President Trump spoke this evening with Prime Minister Netanyahu regarding the emerging memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran to enter into negotiations.

Even though Israel is not a party to the memorandum of understanding, the Prime Minister expressed his appreciation for President Trump’s commitment that the final agreement at the conclusion of negotiations will include the removal of enriched material, the dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, limits on missile production, and the cessation of Iran’s support for its terrorist proxies in the region.”

Bibi, as Netanyahu is called in Israel, clearly went much further into detail than Trump had. Remember, Trump today said the nuclear issue was 95% of the deal. The Israeli Prime Minister essentially demanded that it include a lot more. That tells me that Jerusalem is deeply worried that Trump caved on some or all of those issues, especially Iran’s ongoing support of the Axis of Resistance.

***

QATARI MISCHIEF?

Early in the day, as the news of a potential deal was breaking, I was exchanging messages with our good friend Kelly Torrance. Full disclosure: She is also our editor at The Washington Star and is essentially serving as its relaunch editor.

I told her my gut feeling was that the Qataris got Trump to stand down in a very similar manner to how Pakistan did on April 7^th when the initial ceasefire was agreed to. I also speculated that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were used by the Qataris as dupes to tell Trump a peace deal was close if only the president would call off tonight’s strikes.

Reporting in Axios later confirmed my suspicions. Barak Ravid said that his “sources noted that both the Iranians and the Qataris had emphasized that the U.S. strikes overnight significantly increased Iranian suspicions about Trump’s real intentions.”

Again, reading between the lines, in my view, the Qataris were essentially asking Trump to pull back from striking Iran tonight as a confidence-building measure.

Politico later confirmed my suspicions. Dasha Burns and Felicia Schwartz reported that “senior officials from Qatar, the UAE, and Pakistan” asked Trump to stand down.

That he did, but then he also started doing victory laps and, in the process, the president set himself up to be humiliated by the Iranians.

***

IRAN TROLLS TRUMP

This post by Tasnim News, another semi-official news agency in Iran, says it all. Citing CNN’s tally, they sarcastically note today that “Trump has said 39 times so far that a deal with Iran is close.” Ouch.

***

ENDGAME?

Time will tell. Iran might sign the deal and then again, they may not. For now, Tehran has trapped Trump in a state of limbo of his own making.

I suspect, but cannot know, that the IRGC will milk this for all of its worth as well as a way of extending the clock.

For now, Iran’s actions are what count. And the early returns are not good. According to reporting by Jennifer Griffin at Fox News, Tehran “fired several drones tonight at commercial vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz.”

That is Iran’s way of saying they still own the strait and that they intend to do so after any future deal gets done.

If pressed to take a side, my gut tells me that Iran is playing Trump. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, and Abbas Araghchi are either in on it or simply acting beyond their pay grade.

IMO?

It is still Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, the head of the IRGC, who is calling the shots and ultimately, he is going to say, ‘no deal.’ If not now, then he will eventually do so if a 60-day deal is struck between Washington and Iran.

***

POSTSCRIPT

Barak Ravid is reporting that U.S. military planes carrying equipment that would be used by Vice President JD Vance were dispatched to Europe “in preparation for the possibility of a trip by Vice President Vance to a signing ceremony in Geneva in the coming days.”

Ravid also said that “A diplomat from one of the mediating countries, who went over the clauses of the updated draft with me, said that “the US and Iran have reached an agreement on the text of the deal,” but admitted that final approval is still required.”

Time will tell. This still feels like Kabuki theater to me.

***

PROGRAMMING NOTE

I was scheduled to appear on TVP World on Friday, June 12^th at 2:20 PM ET or 21:20 CET but in light of my aunt’s health, I had to cancel.

Jon has offered to take my place.

If that is acceptable to TVP World, you can watch Jon here. The broadcast is in English.

***

ICYMI #1

In our latest weekly Thursday national security column at The Hill, we argue that Trump simply does not know how to win in Iran.

CENTCOM has the answer. The president needs to greenlight them and then get out of Adm. Brad Cooper’s way.

Photo credit: Julia Demaree Nikhinson / AP. President Trump in an undated photograph at The White House.

You can read it here.

***

ICYMI #2

Early today, in our regular weekday foreign affairs column for The Washington Star, we questioned whether or not Trump’s threat to seize Kharg Island moved Iran toward agreeing to a deal.

Photo credit: Tasnim News Agency. Kharg Island, which is located in the northern Persian Gulf.

You can read it here. It is not paywalled at our request.

***

ICYMI #3

Jon was on Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt earlier today. He discussed the lates developments in Iran.

You can watch it here. The segment is in Arabic.

***

ICYMI #4

I was also on Al Qahera News today. My appearance was prior to Trump’s announcement that he had called off the strikes tonight on Iran. We focused primarily on his threat to seize Kharg Island.

You can watch it here. The segment is in Arabic.

***

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Thank you for reading. Jon will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

Greetings!

The only person who believes that a ceasefire is still in effect, and that negotiations with Iran are going well, resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue – President Donald Trump and the negotiation team of Witkoff & Kushner.

Photo Credit: AP. IRGC Leader Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi

As the saying goes, ‘want it bad, get it bad,” and Iran – more appropriately the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) under the leadership of Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi – is giving it to Trump ‘bad.’

The President’s response to Iran’s latest actions – the downing of an AH-64 helicopter – was to cry wolf again, but Vahidi broke Trump’s code on “The Art of the Deal” weeks ago. He’ll take self- defensive strikes and proportional responses all day.

***

IN PURSUIT OF THE ELUSIVE DEAL

Let’s be honest here – the President has been more interested in making a deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran than winning the war he started.

Nowhere was that more evident than day 38 of Operation Epic Fury when the President took his foot off the gas to begin negotiations with Iran for a cease fire – on April 8th. This has since evolved into ‘Trump’s Forever Ceasefire.’ We are now on day 63.

Photo Credit: The Coolist. Analysis of Sigmund Freud’s tripartite model of id

It’s classic Sigmund Freud Id versus Ego. An internal conflict between ‘Trump the Business Man’ and ‘Trump the Commander in Chief.’ He defaults to what he knows best – business. As Monty Hall would say, “Let’s make the deal.”

Arguably, what began as a quick strike on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound in Tehran to facilitate regime change evolved into a 38 day campaign.

On the evening of the strike, Trump encouraged the Iranian people, telling them that “the hour of your freedom is at hand … take over your government.”

Two weeks later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his goal was to “to create the conditions for the Iranian people to overthrow this terrible tyrannical regime,” telling Iranians “Its up to you.”

Iran buckled, but didn’t break. In the absence of a Supreme Leader, the IRGC – the regime’s center of gravity – rose to the occasion and assumed the reins of leadership. New faces – but the same ideology and hatred towards Israel and the U.S.

And while the ‘new’ regime worked to get their feet underneath them, the Basij paramilitary kept the Iranian people in check.

Regime change evolved into military objectives – and U.S. Central Command, under the leadership of Adm. Brad Cooper, went to work.

As we stated in the May 15th edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report:

On March 2nd, the President stated, “Our objectives are clear. First, we’re destroying Iran’s missile capabilities … Second, we’re annihilating their navy… Third, we’re ensuring that the world’s number one sponsor of terror can never obtain a nuclear weapon… And finally, we’re ensuring that the Iranian regime cannot continue to arm, fund, and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders.”

Missing from the list of military objectives – the IRGC, the Basij paramilitary, drones, speedboats, and … control of the Strait of Hormuz.

The second and third order effects – Iran’s strength, asymmetric warfare.

On day 38, he went into deal making mode, playing into Iran’s other strength – negotiations. Only whoever Witkoff & Kushner are negotiating with are not on the same sheet of music as Vahidi – either by design or by internal conflict between the IRGC and the country’s elected officials.

As we stated in The Hill in late May, “As a result, the White House is in a perpetual reaction mode. In military terms, this means Vahidi retains the initiative.”

The President is chasing a deal – playing for a tie – that will never come to fruition. There is not a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Iran has stated unequivocally that they will not reliquish their enriched uranium program, nor concede control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Both hard ‘Red lines’ for President Trump.

***

THE CURRENT SITUATION

For over 60 days now the President has told the American people that the two sides – Iran and the U.S. – were close to a deal. That a deal was “right around the corner.” According to CNN – 38 times.

It was not – which ultimately led to this evening.

And yet ‘the dance’ continued.

Despite Iran launching ballistic missiles and drones towards American bases in Kuwait and Bahrain that wounded five Americans – including defense contractors and service members – and shooting down an AH-64 Apache helicopter near the coast of Oman with a drone.

Despite Iranian proxies continuing to attack Israel.

The President still believes he has a deal on the table ready for signature – but by whom? Not the only Iranian that matters – Vahidi.

CENTCOMstated they conducted self-defense strikes in response to Iranian reprisal attacks earlier in the day against Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems, and air defense sites across Iran this evening – targets that posed a threat to U.S. forces and international commercial ships transiting regional waters.

Last night’s strikes – also described as self-defense strikes – targeted Iranian air defense sites, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz in response to the downing of the AH-64.

None of the strikes contributed to securing the Strait of Hormuz or toppling the regime.

The President told Fox News Chief Foreign Correspondent Trey Yingst this evening that the bombing – 49 Tomahawk missiles – will stop shortly, but that if they don’t sign the agreement, “we’ll bomb the shit out of them.”

Trump also told Yingst that he spoke directly with top Iranian officials this evening, who he says called to get him to stop bombing.

And that continues to be the problem – the President is bombing to get a deal, he should be attacking to defeat the IRGC and win. Winning solves most – if not all – of the problems Iran presents to their Gulf State neighbors, Israel and the U.S.

The only phone calls President Trump should be accepting from Iran are from one of two people – Vahidi, or Iran’s Hidden Iman, Supreme Leader Khamenei Junior, who may or may not be alive. The words the President needs to hear are, “Iran accepts your terms for unconditional surrender” – not “we’re ready to make a deal now.”

The ceasefire is over. Negotiations are over. Iran’s unconditional surrender must be the only acceptable outcome. The President needs to get back to the business of winning and tell Vahidi “you’re fired.”

Any ‘deal’ with Iran would leave the IRGC in power – and that is simply unacceptable.

***

PROGRAMMING NOTE

In our weekly Thursday 7 A.M. column in The Hill in Washington, D.C., we argue that President Trump simply does not know how to win in Iran. Nor does he understand the asymmetric war that they are waging against him.

Hitting back is a good thing. However, unless the IRGC and the Basij are targeted in an attempt to topple the regime, a U.S. win in Iran will remain elusive.

You can read it here when it goes live.

***

ICYMI #1

Early today, in our regular weekday foreign affairs column for The Washington Star, we penned a piece arguing that Ukraine is getting closer to liberating Crimea.

Photo credit: Code 9.2. The Chonhar bridge connecting Russian-occupied territory in southern Ukraine is seen from above.

You can read it here. It is not paywalled at our request.

***

ICYMI #2

Earlier today, Mark appeared on Al Qahera News TV in Cairo, Egypt. He fielded questions about whether or not the U.S. is upholding its regional security guarantees to Lebanon and the Gulf states in the wake of renewed hostilities with Iran.

Mark’s answer?

Until the war is over and Iran is defeated, those guarantees, while important, will remain secondary to Trump.

You can watch it here.

***

Subscribe now

Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.

Greetings!

Today, we are briefly going to return to our original INTREP360 Intelligence Report format and circle the globe.

Photo credit: U.S. Navy. The U.S.S. Nimitz (CVN-68) operating in Caribbean waters near Cuba.

For new readers and indeed our regular readers, first and foremost, thank you for being here. We truly appreciate it. Secondly, our original intent for this Substack was to canvass the globe on a region-by-region basis looking for the top stories impacting U.S. national security and that of our allies.

Our goal is to build over time for our readers a working understanding of potential and emerging threats to the U.S. before they hit the headlines.

Sometimes those stories are headline news. Others, especially those relying on Jon’s 30 years of intelligence background, involve identifying and reading tiny tea leaves.

Either way, they all form a mosaic that tells an ever-evolving story of looming dangers over the horizon.

Let’s get started!

***

NORTH AMERICA

On Monday, U.S. Northern Command (USNORTHCOM) in Norfolk, Virginia hosted maritime leadership from Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. at the 2026 Executive Meeting of the North American Maritime Security Initiative (NAMSI). It also marked the 18^th anniversary of the working alliance.

NAMSI is structured as an “interagency and trilateral security initiative” whose primary goal is to ensure that U.S., Canadian, and Mexican maritime assets maintain “operational compatibility in exercises and operations.”

The organization’s leadership also approved new changes to the NAMSI Handbook including new “security and defense strategy to combat transnational criminal organizations” operating or attempting to operate in North American waters.

Rear Adm. Martin Muckian, Director of Maritime Operations for U.S. Naval Forces Northern Command (NAVNORTH), emphasized that the alliance “ensures that U.S., Canadian, and Mexican maritime forces remain fully synchronized in our efforts to deter threats and maintain regional stability.”

Interoperability is key. And, as Rear Adm. Josée Kurtz, commander, Maritime Forces Atlantic and Joint Task Force Atlantic, Royal Canadian Navy, pointed out, it is “essential to safeguarding the continental waters surrounding our respective countries.”

The U.S. Coast Guard, in conjunction with the U.S. Navy, is also an integral component of NAMSI bringing together the Department of Homeland Security and the Pentagon. USNORTHCOM is in overall control.

***

LATIN AMERICA

The U.S. is continuing to assert military pressure on Cuba. In late May, the U.S.S. Nimitz (CVN-68) carrier strike group was repositioned to patrol the Caribbean Sea.

For now, its role appears to be a “show of force, [and] not as a platform for major military operations.”

The U.S.S. Nimitz is, in effect, also carrying a message to Raúl Castro, the 94-year-old former president of Cuba and brother of the late Fidel Castro. It arrived on station the same day that the Justice Department indicted Castro.

Photo credit: Ismael Francisco / Associated Press. Former Cuban president Raúl Castro in an updated photograph.

Castro, who remains the de facto leader of Cuba, was charged on April 23^rd in the United States District Court in Florida alongside five former Cuban fighter pilots.

The six men are accused of committing murder and conspiracy in 1996 that killed four U.S. citizens who were members of the Brothers to the Rescue, a group that helped find Cubans attempting to escape the island who had become lost at sea.

The Trump Administration’s message to Castro?

You might become the next Nicolás Maduro, the former Venezuelan president who was captured by the U.S. in January.

Notably, tomorrow, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is scheduled to travel to Guantanamo Bay, which is a U.S. military base located on the island of Cuba. He too will be likely sending Castro a message.

Meanwhile, Cuba was rocked by a 6.1 magnitude earthquake yesterday. Even the Gods seem to be sending Havana a message.

***

EUROPE

Earlier today, we taped a news magazine program hosted by Daniel Tkiie for First Western TV in Ukraine. The English edition should be available late this week.

During the show, Mark noted just how far Ukraine had come since the opening days of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ‘special military operation’ in February and March 2022. Back then, Ukraine survived by ‘shoot and scoot’ type tactics to take out Russian tanks, armored vehicles and truck convoys.

Now, as Mark hammered home, Ukraine is fighting on so many different levels. Deep strikes hitting as far as St. Petersburg. Drone swarms creating ‘killing zones’ in the Donbas and in the south along the Kremlin’s land bridge from Crimea to Russia.

Ditto intermediate deep strikes that are interdicting Russian soldiers — something Jon has rightly hammered home repeatedly since the start — and killing or wounding them before they can get to the frontlines.

Then today, yet again, Ukraine reminded us of another domain in which they are winning: the targeted killings of senior officers deep inside of Moscow.

Col. Damir Davydov, the head of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU), was killed in a car bomb. Ukraine’s intelligence service was likely responsible. Especially since Davydov was in charge of supplying missiles, rockets, artillery shells, and ammunition to Russian troops fighting Ukraine.

Photo credit: Yaroslav Trokimov / X. An image on Russian social media reported to be Davydov’s BMW X3 in flames on June 9^th, 2026.

Do not feel sorry for Davydov. Many of the drones and missiles he sent to Russian forces were used to kill innocent Ukrainian civilians. He was, by every letter of international law, a legitimate war target.

If Ukraine did kill him, it follows earlier similar instances including the killing of Lt. Gen. Yaroslav Moskalik in April 2025, and Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov in December 2025. Those killings took place in Moscow as well.

No wonder Putin stays in his bunker.

***

AFRICA

Far too often Africa gets overlooked due to the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Iran as well as the buildup of tensions between China and Taiwan. However, it is essential not to sleep on troubling developments that are impacting U.S. national security.

The fighting in Sudan continues. 13,000 people have recently been displaced in South Darfur due to recent fighting between the Beni Halba and Salamat tribes.

Photo credit: MSF. A woman and her daughter at a refuge facility in South Darfur, Sudan in an undated photo.

Instability in this region is particularly threatening to Egypt given its reliance on the Nile River for its agriculture. It also creates a spillover risk for U.S. forces operating in Djibouti and in Nigeria as it creates openings for ISIS.

Meanwhile, elsewhere in Central Africa, the U.S. continues to expand its counterterrorism campaign against ISIS in Nigeria. As we noted here in May, U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) has conducted a series of strikes, including one that killed Abu-Bilal al Minuki, a senior ISIS commander, as well as other key members.

This comes on top of earlier Pentagon efforts to upgrade its military base in Manda Bay, Kenya. The U.S. has committed $70 million to expand its airfield.

Why?

The base is used by U.S. forces to confront and deter Al Shabab, a militant group operating in Somalia.

***

THE MIDDLE EAST

Overnight, Iran appeared to down a U.S. Army AH-64 Apache helicopter. How is unclear. Its crew was successfully rescued by an unmanned sea drone.

In response, President Donald Trump declared on Truth Social that “the United States must, of necessity, respond to this attack.” Late this afternoon, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) did just that.

It appeared that the U.S. strikes came in three waves. CENTCOM announced on X that it had “struck Iranian air defense, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz with precision munitions from U.S. Air Force and Navy fighter jets.”

The statement also said –– disappointingly so in our view –– that the “operation was a proportional response to recent attacks on U.S. forces and international commercial ships transiting regional waters.”

Iran is likely to interpret ‘proportionality’ as a win.

According to Jennifer Griffin, the chief national security correspondent for Fox News, senior U.S. officials told her that “20 targets inside Iran were targeted.”

The ball is now in Iran’s court. Earlier this evening, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X shortly after the strikes that, “Our Powerful Armed Forces will leave no attack or threat unanswered.”

Time will tell.

Well, apparently it just did. As we were about to hit send on this edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report, a U.S. official told Barak Ravid that Iran fired 4 ballistic missiles and multiple drones at U.S. military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. As we feared, ‘proportionality’ was not going to cut it.

Notably, Iran claims they hit 21 targets as opposed to the U.S. hitting 20 per CENTCOM’s statement. That is a direct challenge to Trump.

It is time to go big or go home, and we cannot go home lest Iran ends up winning and the U.S. suffers its worst strategic defeat in its history.

***

INDO-PACIFIC

In what we assess as the most underreported story of the day — we did not forget about this angle! — Chinese President Xi Jinping is back in Beijing after meeting with Kim Jong Un, the Supreme Leader of North Korea.

Photo credit: North Korean government. Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) meets with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang on June 8^th, 2026.

Notably, North Korea’s nukes did not appear to be on the agenda as they were during Xi’s last trip to Pyongyang in 2019. Xi, wittingly or not, essentially acknowledged North Korea’s status as a nuclear power.

For its part, according to Ban Kil Joo, an assistant professor at the Korea National Diplomatic School in Seoul, South Korea, “North Korea reaffirmed its support of China over the Taiwan issue.”

Xi’s real motive here likely has to do with China wanting to reassert its influence over North Korea that has waned over the last five years. Pyongyang’s support of Russia’s war in Ukraine “by sending troops and weapons in exchange for economic and other assistance” has eroded Beijing’s grip on North Korea.

***

MARK’S POSTSCRIPT

Forty plus years ago, as a high school student, I played basketball in one of the hangars of the U.S.S. Nimitz while it was making a port call in Haifa, Israel.

The grey lady is showing her age, as am I.

For the record, the U.S. Navy destroyed my high school team and then some. It was a brutal loss in every sense of the word. By the way, as I learned that day, falling on tarmac shreds your skin. I swear, I still have scars from the drubbing.

Mark

***

ICYMI #1

Early today, in our regular weekday foreign affairs column for The Washington Star, we penned a piece noting how Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is being forced by Ukraine to reconsider his options.

Putin is likely not pleased.

Photo credit: Office of the President of Belarus. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko shows Russia’s incursion into Moldova from Odesa in 2022.

You can read it here. It is not paywalled at our request.

***

ICYMI #2

We also penned a special column today for The Washington Star after President Trump announced that the U.S. would retaliate after Iran caused the crash of a U.S. Army AH-64 Apache helicopter near the Oman coastline in the Strait of Hormuz.

Photo credit: U.S. Army. U.S. Army AH-64 Apache helicopter in an undated photo.

You can read it here. It is also not paywalled at our request.

***

ICYMI #3

Earlier today, Jon appeared on Al Qahera News TV in Cairo, Egypt. He was on a panel with Peter Roff, a Newsweek columnist, to discuss the latest on the indirect peace talks between the U.S. and Iran.

As it turned out, it focused on whether U.S. domestic politics are playing a factor in Trump’s negotiating position. Alas, Jon had to dance around a bit as we intentionally avoid U.S. domestic politics in our national security columns.

You can watch it here.

***

Subscribe now

Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.